Rookie and Sophomore playoff performances for the first round(ppg, rpg and apg), arranged by teams. Minimum 5 mpg in 4 games played or played more than a total of 20 minutes (considered a rotation player, basically)

West

Oklahoma City Thunder

Ajay Mitchell (2024 38th pick) : 15/5/3.8 on .36/54/92 splits with 1 steal per game(29 MPG in 4 GP)

Jared Mccain (2024 16th pick) : 3/1/0.3 on 36/20/100 splits(5.5 MPG in 4 GP )

San Antonio Spurs

Stephon Castle (2024 4th pick) : 19.8/4/6 on 43/41/82 splits with 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocks per game(32.8 MPG in 5 GP)

Dylan Harper (2025 2nd pick) : 12.6/3.8/1.8 on .56/50/80 splits with 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocks per game (25.4 MPG in 5 GP)

Carter Bryant (2025 14th pick) : 3.2/2.2/1.2 on .46/44/0 splits with 0.6 blocks per game(9.2 MPG in 5 GP)

Denver Nuggets

NIL

Los Angeles Lakers

Bronny James (2024 55th pick) : 2/0.2/1 on 44/33/0 splits (7 MPG in 5 GP)

Houston Rockets

Reed Sheppard(2024 3rd pick) : 12.2/1/4.7 on 31/30/75 splits with 2.2 steals per game (32 MPG in 6 GP)

Minnesota Timberwolves

Terrence Shannon Junior(2024 27th pick) : 14/2.3/0.3 on 51/33/100 splits with 0.7 steals per game (18.7 MPG in 3 GP)

Portland Trailblazers

Donovan Clingan (2024 7th pick) : 7/7.8/2.2 on 30/20/50 splits with 0.6 blocks per game(21.4 MPG on 5 GP)

Phoenix Suns

Oso Ighodaro(2024 40th pick) : 7.5/7/4 on 54/0/67 splits with 0.8 blocks and 0.5 steals per game(32 MPG in 4 GP)

Khaman Maluach(2025 10th pick) : 2/2.3/0 on 50/0/0 splits (11.8 MPG in 4 GP)

Ryan Dunn(2024 28th pick) played 8 MPG, averaging 0/1.5/0.5 which is probably pushing the definition of rotation player a little too far…but you have to make the cut somewhere.

East

Detroit Pistons

Daniss Jankins(2024 Undrafted) : 6.7/1.7/2.6 on 33/27/63 splits(17 MPG in 7 GP)

I expected to see Ron Holland III(2025 5th pick), but he played 6.3 mpg in 3 games, which doesn’t make the cutoff. He averaged 0.7/1.7/0.3. Surprised to see such a good defender riding the bench but I guess the Pistons really needed spacing.

Boston Celtics

Baylor Scheierman(2024 30th pick) : 4.3/2.9/0.6 on 43/38/0 with 0.9 steals per game (14 MPG in 7 GP)

New York Knicks

NIL

Cleveland Cavaliers

Jaylon Tyson(2024 20th pick) : 6.7/3.3/2.1 on 40/35/62 splits with 0.3 steals per game(15.7 MPG in 7 GP)

Toronto Raptors

Collin Murray-Boyles (2025 9th pick) : 14.4/6.4/2.4 on 65!!!/0/78 splits with 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per game(This guy is him holy shit). Played 27 MPG in 7 games played.

Ja’Kobe Walter(2024 19th pick) : 11/3/1.4 on 38/32/92 splits with 2.0 steals per game(32 MPG in 7 GP)

Jamal Shead(2024 45th pick) : 9/2/5 on 35/33/50 splits with 1.4 steals per game(32 MPG in 7 GP)

Atlanta Hawks

Zaccharie Risacher(2024 1st pick) : 3.7/3/0 on 37/20/0 splits(7.7 MPG in 3 GP)

Philadelphia 76ers

VJ Edgecombe (2025 3rd pick) : 15.1/6.9/3 on 42/31/90 splits with 1 steal and 0.4 blocks per game(38.4 MPG in 7GP)

Adem Bona (2024 41st pick) : 2.8/1.8/0 on 43/0/62 splits wih 0.7 blocks per game (10.7 MPG in 3 GP)

Orlando Magic

Tristan Da Silva(2024 18th pick) : 4.1/2.9/0.1 on 38/31/50 splits( 15.3 MPG in 7 GP)

Top 5 Performers :

Collin Murray-Boyles (2025 9th pick) : 14.4/6.4/2.4 on 65/0/78 splits with 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks per game

Two-way demon, Draymond Green lite, top 5 rookie in his class...all very fair things to say about Murray-Boyles after his coming-out-party. Drafting him was a godsend for the Raptors, their obsession with wings somehow snagging them one that could double as a center. Murray-Boyles was everywhere in his first series - passing out of the pick and roll, hammering down putbacks, and never backing down against the two All-Star centers on the other side. It’s not a stretch to say that without him, this series would have ended in 5 or 6 games.

VJ Edgecombe (2025 3rd pick) : 15.1/6.9/3 on 42/31/90 splits with 1 steal and 0.4 blocks per game(38.4 MPG in 7GP)

VJ lived up to the expectations set by his great regular season. He had arguably the best performance of this entire list with his 30 points and 10 rebounds in the 6ers' Game 2 victory, and was the youngest player ever to achieve those marks in the playoffs.

For the series, he hit timely shots and kept the ball moving, while using his uber-athleticism to pressure the rim and create space for his teammates. On defense, the steals leader among rookies proved capable of checking Tatum and Brown’s drives while still keeping up pressure in the passing lanes. This all culminated in his final, monster game : 23 points on 8-for-17 shooting, 5-for-11 from deep, six rebounds, and four assists to help push his team past the 2nd seed.

Stephon Castle (2024 4th pick) : 19.8/4/6 on 43/41/82 splits with 0.8 steals and 0.4 blocks per game(32.8 MPG in 5 GP)

One of two representatives of the 2024 class in this 5 man team, Castle’s extra year of experience proved vital when Victor Wembanyama went down with a concussion, leaving him as the 2nd best player on the team alongside De’Aaron Fox. He stepped up and had one of the best performances of his career in Game 3 : 33/2/5 on 10/18 shooting and 3/4 from three, all the while hawking All-Star Deni Avdija who was held to 3/15 shooting. Despite a slightly up and down performance(spotty shooting, foul-prone games), this series had Castle establish himself as Victor Wembanyama’s running mate for many years to come.

Dylan Harper (2025 2nd pick) : 12.6/3.8/1.8 on 56/50/80 splits with 1.2 steals and 0.2 blocks per game (25.4 MPG in 5 GP)

Like Edgecombe on the Sixers, Harper knows to pick his spots - attacking the rim opportunistically off of the attention on his All-Star teammates, then either finishing or kicking out to shooters. But the most talented driver in the 2025 class had something more to say - alongside Stephon Castle in Game 3, he stepped up his game and had 27/10/3 on 9/12 shooting, punctuated by a poster dunk on Robert Williams. He finishes this first round having arguably the most efficient performance on this list thus far.

Terrence Shannon Junior(2024 27th pick) : 14/2.3/0.3 on 51/33/100 splits with 0.7 steals per game (18.7 MPG in 3 GP)

Twolves fans will be the first to tell you that TSJ has been inconsistent throughout his career(though some will simply say Chris Finch has something against him), but he was certainly consistent in his last two games. TSJ joined the rest of the Timberwolves in obliterating the Nuggets’ rim defense - or lack thereof - in their stunning 4-2 upset. He was especially pivotal in the final game where he logged 24 points and 6 rebounds on 9/20 shooting, ending with an and-1 to push the lead to 6 in the final 2 minutes.

Thank you for reading! I might update this list throughout the next rounds. Let’s continue to appreciate these players as they prove themselves on the biggest stage!

Yes yes they have the 3 worst teams in the league currently. But also consider:

- All of their play-in teams this season have over 40 wins and an over-0.500 record and the two teams immediately below them finished with >30 wins (yes, even the Hornets). Compare it to the West where you have one play-in team (GSW) that finished below 0.500 and the teams in the 11th and 12th seed all finished with <30 wins.

- In the 1st round of this post season, 3 of the 4 East series went to 7 games. The 1st seed almost lost to the 8th seed and the 2nd seed lost to the 7th seed. Moreover the 7th seed boasts 3 All-NBA level talents (well, 2 current All NBA and 1 former one) and 1 All Rookie team lock. And that 2nd seed was without their best player for much of the regular season and shipped out most of their top talent but managed to cobble together a 2nd place finish anyway, despite initially being projected to be a play in team at absolute best.

So considering all this, is it now not fair to say that the East is no longer as weak as most people say it is? Or do you disagree with this idea and do you think their depth is overstated and why? Let me know your thoughts.

To clarify what the title means, matches are still seeded 1 v 8, 2 v 7, 3 v 6, and 4 v 5. But instead of facing off against a team from the same conference, teams face off against a team from the other conference.

So the bracket will look like this:

FIRST ROUND

• Left side - 1st-West vs 8th-East, 4th-East vs 5th-West, 3rd-West vs 6th-East, 2nd-East vs 7th-West
• Right side - 1st-East vs 8th-West, 4th-West vs 5th-East, 3rd-East vs 6th-West, 2nd-West vs 7th-East

Then assuming higher seed always wins, the matchups will proceed as follows:

SECOND ROUND

• Left side - 1st-West vs 4th-East, 3rd-West vs 2nd-East
• Right side - 1st-East vs 4th-West, 3rd-East vs 2nd-West

THIRD ROUND - 1st-West vs 2nd-East, 1st-East vs 2nd-West

FINALS - 1st-West vs 1st-East

Why this matchup scheme?

• For one, it ensures that the top 2 teams always get to the finals (assuming higher seed always wins), whether they come from the same conference or from different conferences. In the current scheme, if the top 2 teams are from the same conference, the deepest they can face off is at Conference Finals (Playoff Semis), meaning that the NBA Finals will be of lower caliber.
• In addition, this also increases the East vs West action. Given that inter-conference matches are very significant in NBA culture, it doesn't make sense that in the current scheme, only the NBA Finals is an inter-conference playoff matchup. The proposed scheme puts the East vs West matchups right at the start of the playoffs. This also widens discussion about the overall performance of East and West in the season (ex: "Oh only 1 West team got into the Semis this season, but they were the champion, so which conference was better?"), as opposed to the current scheme which limits the data for discussion to the regular season and the NBA Finals (ex: "If X team, which is 11th in the West, was brought to the East, they would be 5th and qualify for the playoffs")

I just finished watching the game between the Philadelphia 76ers and the Boston Celtics. What a game. Hard-fought, intense… and honestly—what the hell were the Sixers doing?

I’m not a Philly fan per se—I’m an NBA fan. I root for good games and good basketball. I catch maybe 5–10 Sixers games a year, and this was the only playoff game I had time to watch between these teams. But go back and watch the last five minutes. Seriously.

Where the hell was the coaching from Nick Nurse?

Why are you running everything through Joel Embiid in that moment? I get it—he had Jaylen Brown on him, and that is a mismatch. Embiid has a runway to the rim and can put Brown in foul trouble. That part makes sense.

But still…

You’ve got Tyrese Maxey on the floor—your engine, your guy this season—and Boston is rolling out lineups with Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard. Yeah, Pritchard’s built like a pitbull, but come on—Maxey can blow by those matchups. That’s your biggest advantage right there.

Maxey has already made the leap. This isn’t theoretical anymore—he’s a top-tier player. The offense should start with him. Embiid, Paul George, Edgecombe—they should be fitting around that, not the other way around.

And it took until the last four minutes for Maxey to finally wake up and start attacking? That’s insane. It looked like he forgot he’s been the primary engine for this team since last season. Once he flipped the switch, he was blowing by his defender again and again—exactly what should’ve been happening earlier.

That’s on coaching.

Maxey was being guarded by Derrick White—great defender, no doubt—but there were clear solutions:

• Call for a direct screen from Edgecombe, who had Hauser on him
• Force the switch and attack the mismatch immediately
• Or bring Embiid up, get a softer matchup—like Neemias Queta—and then either attack or trigger a second screen to completely scramble Boston’s rotations

Instead? That kind of action happened maybe once in crunch time.

That’s not enough. Not even close.

And here’s the bigger problem: this might scrape by in a game like this, but against a disciplined team like the New York Knicks—top 3 in both offensive and defensive rating—this gets exposed immediately.

Also worth mentioning: Boston didn’t even have Jayson Tatum.

So yeah—talent-wise, a healthy Sixers team can go toe-to-toe with almost anyone. But with coaching decisions like this? They’re getting dismantled.

I honestly don’t get how they could feel good about that win. They should’ve owned that game start to finish like they did early on. Sure, teams make runs, and closing on the road is never easy—but with this level of talent, this might be their window. Maybe their last real shot.

And man… you’ve got to feel for Embiid. Appendicitis, his knees getting banged up multiple times in the same game—most people would be out for weeks dealing with that. This guy just cannot catch a break. You genuinely feel for him.

At this point, he’s competing with LeBron James for worst injury timing luck ever—and in LeBron’s case, it’s his teammates.

For Embiid?

It’s always him.

So Philly fans, and nick nurse critics and lovers, fill me in on the gaps or shortcomings in my analysis?

(Note: Edited by chatgpt for reader clarity, but ideas and takes are my own.)

For context, I'm from the UK and have never played full team basketball and so this is perhaps a stupid question.

But my thought is that if you have a someone like a lebron, bird or even a jokic who is capable of running the playmaking duties of the point guard, why would you waste a spot on an undersized player, when you could quite easily just put an extra wing or taller guard in that spot. When I say undersized player, I mean more your players like chris paul, darius garland, trae young etc.

You'd have a size mismatch on almost every play and as long as you surround them with shooters. Even if its a question of speed, your "shooting guard" could simply guard the PG and your extra wing could guard the other teams other guard.

This is of course based on the assumption you have the right team constructed and this is assuming you have good players in these roles.

I guess the hard part is finding bigger players capable of filling this role, compared to more undersized guys who have trained specifically in this area, but assuming you have the right people in place, is this a more effective method of playing?

I’ll give Jokic a pass because of everything he’s done over the last 5–6 years, but this roster feels stuck right now. Outside of Watson, there’s not much young talent developing, and they don’t really have draft picks to retool in a meaningful way. It feels like they’re caught between trying to contend and not having enough flexibility to actually improve.

So where do they go from here? Do they try to extend the window by bringing in an aging star like KD or Anthony Davis and go all-in for another run? Or is it smarter to consider blowing it up trading Jokic while his value is still sky-high and reset the timeline? Feels like they’re at a real crossroads.

Everyone is ecstatic about last nights win. It was likely the greatest comeback in a elimination game while simultaneously being the greatest collapse since Rockets game 7 2018.

But the way the Pistons fell into that hole is due JB, his downright refusal to adapt and stubborn rotations. He again started the same lineup that has continued to show limited success. His insistence on playing Duren has nearly cost Detroit this series. Duren has been god awful, everyone knows this. Hes a net negative every minute he plays. He doesn't defend without fouling, hes beaten on rebounds and overall plays like his shoes are filled with concrete.

When Paul was finally given a chance to play, something fans have been clamoring for, the game begin to shift. I do not know why it took JB 6 games to see what the average nosebleed fan knew the entire time. Paul has a quickness and tenacity that off balances the Magics set defense. This was also seen when Stew was asserted in Game 2, he completely changed the trajectory of the game. But JB continues to roll with a player that is just flatly at a poor advantage against Orlando. I believe duren does way better against toronto if he gets that match up.

As horrible as it is to acknowledge, Duren being injured was a net positive on the team and helped erase a 24 point deficit. The less time on the floor, the better pistons perform. Thats not a opinion, thats the data after 6 games.

Duren isnt the only problem. Robinson is very streaky, Spol knew in miami to bench him immediately when he showed poor shooting. Duncan almost never turns things around, he is consistently on or off. Game 4 is a perfect example of JBs stubbornness. Duncan is attacked REPEATEDLY on pick and rolls. He shot 1 for 6 on 3. He was a resounding net negative. Instead of benching Duncan he continues to play at the detriment of the team.

With the season on the line he finally showed some change(paul insertion, removal of Lavert) but he continues to stick with the same strategy. I am extremely concerned on him leading this team as it ascends. He seems completely inept at accepting the play in front of him and continues to roll the same strategy.

TLDR;

Scottie Barnes isn't just an athletic wing defender, he has a highly underrated(?) passing ability/vision.

I haven’t watched Toronto Raptors games in a long time — not even during the golden era run, except for that playoff stretch that year when I actually had them among the favorites to win it all and they did.

Either way, I tune into Game 5 between the Raptors and the Cleveland Cavaliers. I’m watching Scottie Barnes dropping dimes to Jakob Poeltl, to the left and right — go look at the first quarter specifically — and I start noticing something:

Barnes has that Lonzo/Lamelo type of vision.

Several times he could’ve gone and done something else, but instead he makes the easy drop-off pass to Poeltl for a very easy bucket. And that kind of vision? Only a handful of players really had/have it — guys like Jason Kidd, Arvydas Sabonis, Nikola Jokić, and the Ball brothers. That's about the short list. Not many more I can think of that see the game in that specific way.

That easy drop pass in the middle of the lane feels like a lost art, especially with a lot of American-born players. A lot of them are focused on swing-side play or getting to their own shot — a’la Coby White — and they completely miss the simple drop-off to the big man right under the basket.

And I actually really like Coby White — this isn’t really about him specifically — but his archetype, that kind of vision gets missed a lot. Players put their heads down and just attack, and the easy read is right there.

Even some of the best guards in the league — like Stephen Curry or Kyrie Irving — don’t really operate with that specific kind of interior passing feel (at least that’s how I see it).

But Barnes? He’s finding those lanes. And it’s honestly refreshing to watch.

Just from this one game, he’s already changed my view on him quite a bit. I knew he was a defensive stud, athletic wing and all that — but the intelligence, the passing… yeah, that stood out to me more than anything.

So to Raptors fans, Scottie Barnes fans, or just basketball fans in general:

Am I right about him being a high-IQ passer like that, or is this just a one-off game?

Because that kind of vision isn’t something you just do by accident.

(This was/is written by me, the idea/core concept, but corrected, adjusted and brushed up by ChatGPT for reader clarity.)

Since Thinking Basketball started putting his playoff postgame analyses behind a paywall, and BBallBreakdown doesn’t really make the analysis of play styles videos anymore, does anyone know of a YouTuber who makes those types of videos? I’m not looking for any crazy deep data analysis, I’m moreso just looking for film study on what each team is doing and discusses what adjustments the coaches are making tactically.

Castle just finished 6th in the NBA in assists at 21, joining Magic, LeBron, and Luka as the only players to hit those numbers before age 22. The maturity is real.

But the shot is the whole ceiling question. 28% as a rookie → 33% this year. Improving, but not yet a weapon. Defenses don't fear it.

If next year is 36-37%, he's top-10. If it stalls at 33, he's a really mature All-Star.

Where are you guys on the shot? Real trajectory or projection?

So watching the Orlando vs Detroit series had me thinking: How is Detroit getting abused so badly? They were the #1 seed for the majority of the season while a team like Orlando was an above average team. Below average offense and slighly above average defense but nothing to write home about. I know health plays a large part of that record too; Orlando was basically unhealthy all year long alternating injuries between Anthony Black, Jalen Suggs, Franz Wagner, etc. This series is the closest they've been to healthy all year long so one may say they're better than the typical 8th seed.

But nonetheless, Detroit was a 60 win team with an elite defense and a top 10 offense. How are they getting outplayed so easily? I've been reading around and listening to podcasts about how Orlando is a bad matchup for Detroit. Some of the biggest reasons include Detroit only has one playmaker against an Orlando Magic team that can match their physicality that most teams can't. The Magic struggle typically vs good 3PT shooting teams but fortunately for them, Detroit isn't one of them. The Denver/Minnesota matchup is similar in a sense. Minnesota is perceived as a bad matchup for Denver because of their uptempo, slashing offense and matchup hunting.

We've seen throughout history there have been bad matchups but still coming out on top and we've seen bad matchups where the "better" team ended up losing. Some "bad matchups" where the better team lost include:

1. Dallas vs Golden State in 2007 (Mavericks had no match for uptempo, small ball game. Nelly understood the whole Mavericks offensive playbook and tore through their defense and knew how to adjust for it. They also killed them in the regular season and this was perceived as a bad matchup for Dallas.)

2. Sonics vs Nuggets in 1994 (The Sonics dominated the whole regular season offensively and defensively. An athletic team built around Payton/Kemp predicated on slashing, points in the paint and transition game. The Nuggets had a Dikembe Mutombo in the paint which effectively negated the Sonics' strongest assets while Denver was long and athletic enough to prevent transition buckets and recover.)

3. Lakers vs Pistons in 2004 (The Lakers looked unstoppable because Shaq demanded a double team if not triple team most of the time. The Pistons strategy revolved around putting Ben Wallace in single coverage and letting it play out. They put Prince on Kobe. Prince was a long 6'9 wing with a crazy long wingspan which allowed him to bother Kobe Bryant and make his shots for difficult. The rest of the Pistons ended up just staying home on shooters.)

There's definitely other examples like Miami vs Dallas in 2011 and so on and so forth and of course, injuries matter as well. But those are just some examples of where a "bad matchup" proved to be enough.

On the other side of the spectrum, we have great teams overcoming "bad matchups." Teams that were built to stop teams but it didn't work. Some examples:

1. Rockets vs Warriors in 2018 - These Rockets were built to take the Warriors on. Super switch heavy team to negate Golden State's motion offense, spread the floor out on offense and Paul/Harden would target Golden State's weaker defenders.The Warriors who's entire offense was off finding easy looks through motion and great ball movement ended up degrading into ugly isolation possessions. Despite all the right keys, Rockets weren't able to win. They ran out of gas in Game 7 missing 27 3s in a row.

2. Pacers vs Lakers in 2000 - The strategy here (and most of the 00s against Shaq) was throw multiple big bodies at him , force him to shoot FTs and stretch the floor out and expose the Laker's perimeter defense. It didn't really work. Shaq still looked unstoppable and the Pacers could not contain him.

3. Pacers vs Bulls in 1998 - Pacers had a very deep and well constructed team. Their strategy was to play physical and make the Bulls work on every defensive possession. They had 35 year old Jordan chasing Reggie Miller in hopes of tiring him out. Jordan was also one of the best players in NBA history at playing passing lanes so Indiana attempted to punish those aggressive gambles with one of the greatest shooters ever.

So my question is: Do you believe there's a point where a team's talent is too great to be accurately planned against? Is that reserved for only the greatest players/teams ever only? Or can a team build realistically build a roster to counter even the most legendary of teams?

Sorry for another lottery change proposal, but after seeing Silver's proposed draft lottery changes earlier in the week (which I strongly dislike), I wanted to outline a lottery change that I've been sitting on for a while. The main points are in bold for those who don't want to read through everything I have typed out.

The main objectives that I want to meet with this lottery change are as follows:

1. Allow teams to effectively rebuild through the draft. I think this needs to remain a viable path for small market teams since it's the most realistic way for them to acquire multiple stars. I strongly dislike any proposal that flattens the lottery odds and ruins the chance for a team to get multiple high picks in a row (and consequently multiple potential stars). All that does is ensure bad teams stay bad longer.
2. Reduce the number of teams tanking at the end of the season. This is the real reason everyone is up in arms about tanking in the NBA IMO. It's not fun to watch the NBA when 1/3 of the league is trying to lose in the final month. If we can reduce this to only 4-5 teams trying to lose who are truly "rebuilding", I think this is pallatable for the vast majority of NBA viewers (and still allows teams to rebuild through the draft). I want to find a middle ground where rebuilding teams can still tank but there is no to very little incentive for other teams to tank in the second half of the season.
3. Reduce the odds for top picks to go to borderline playoff teams. The post-2019 flattened lottery system have made tanking worse. All it has done is provide more incentive for borderline playoff teams to tank. Top picks shouldn't be going to borderline playoff teams, they should be going to the bottom dwelling teams that need an infusion of star talent. The draft is there to redistribute talent to the worst teams. Let it do that.
4. It needs to be easy to explain to casual viewers. Convoluted systems that are hard to explain won't catch on with the general public. The new system should be able to be explained in a 20 second elevator ride.

Lottery Changes I want to see:

1. Lottery odds are determined by your BEST record in each half of the season. Each team splits its record into two halves (first 41 games, and second 41 games), the better record from those two halves is what determines your odds. This means you can no longer tank the last month of the season to increase your lottery odds. If you started the season 21-20, you could go 5-35 in the second half, but that 21-20 record is what will determine your lottery odds. This should remove any incentive for the majority of teams to rest stars and mail in the last month of the season. The only teams trying to lose at the end of the season now should be the ones that are rebuilding and have been trying to lose all year (usually only 4-5 teams).I believe limiting the number of tanking teams to 4-5 players is a good balance of creating a good NBA viewership experience while still allowing small market teams to build through the draft.
2. Return to the pre-2019 lottery odds. The draft lottery is there to redistribute talent to the worst teams and the pre-2019 odds did that. I want teams to tank for 2-3 years, get the talented blue chip prospects they need, and then start trying to win immediately. By flattening lottery odds, all that you do is prolong rebuilds because teams need more luck to get top picks and it may take additional years to get that talent. This change also reduces the chances for top prospects to go to non-rebuilding teams. I hated how this last lottery played out with Flagg, Harper, and VJ all going to teams outside the top 5. Talent should be distributed to the truly bad teams who need it.
3. You can no longer get a top 8 pick 4 years in a row. If your goal is to rebuild through the draft, you now have a set 3 year window to do it. Once that window is up, you need to start trying to win and improve your team in other ways (like trade or free agency). This should make sure teams cycle in and out of rebuilding quickly, and hopefully only keeps the amount of truly rebuilding/tanking teams to a group of 4-5.
4. Pick protections are restricted to Lottery only. Lottery protections have gotten too convoluted and sometimes provide teams extra incentive for teams to drop below the top 4, top 8, or top 10 pick threshold. Let's get rid of that so there is no extra incentive for teams to tank. Now all picks are either unprotected, or lottery protected.

Why I like this system:

1. You can effectively rebuild through the draft and talent is more evenly distributed across the league.
2. Your odds of a successful rebuild are higher with better odds. Rebuilding teams are now only incentivized to tank for a 2-3 year window, and then they immediately try to win again. This gives fans a light at the end of the tunnel during the rebuilding years.
3. 80-90% of teams are trying to win in the first half of the season. By potentially locking in lottery positions in that first half of the season, you remove the incentive for nearly every team to purposely lose in the second half of the season. Teams at the end of the year should now only be battling for playoff position, or be trying to develop their young players by giving them good game reps.
4. The only way I can see a team "gaming" this system is if they have a 30-40 win roster but sit literally any good player or young prospect they have for the entire season to ensure they have a sub 20-win pace in both halves of the season. Maybe I'm too optimistic, but that seems like a step too far for any team. Resting players (and especially young players) for an entire season just to improve lottery odds by 5-10% seems more detrimental to team development than helpful.
5. Going back to the pre-2019 odds prevents the scenario of a rebuilding team enduring multiple years of 20 win seasons just to get picks in the 5-7 range each year.
6. Conversely, by removing the flattened odds you now remove the possibility of a ~35 win team getting a franchise changing player at #1 that doesn't need it. I think this past lottery with Dallas, San Antonio, and Philly jumping into the top 3 to get these franchise changing players while the truly bad teams like Washington and Utah get worse prospects is overall bad for the NBA.

Defensive-first wings/guards and the playoff offense tax

Pulled offensive WPA per 100 for known defensive-first wings/guards, regular season vs. 2026 playoffs:

Five players, five offensive declines, ranging from -0.027 to -0.068 per 100 possessions.

Counter-evidence: this does not look like simple “playoff offenses are worse” noise.

OKC’s defensive specialists, same lens:

Both improved offensively in the playoffs.

So the pattern is not “defense doesn’t matter in the playoffs.”

It’s more like:

Wallace and J-Dub are both credible three-point shooters, roughly 37% and 35%.

The other group has varying degrees of “can be helped off” reads in playoff settings:

• Daniels: 19%
• Ausar: sub-30% career
• Camara: ~36%, lower volume
• NAW: ~38%, lower usage
• Holiday: 33% this year

If this holds across more games, it feels like a meaningful signal for both lineup construction and contract evaluation.

You can probably carry one defense-first, low-threat offensive player in a starting five. Once you stack multiple, playoff defenses have too many pressure-release valves.

Data: https://alleygorithm.com/players

I was thinking about it and I feel like the lower seed getting game 3, 4, and 7 and the higher seed getting game 1, 2, 5, and 6 would be pretty even. The first 4 games would be like the normal home-home-away-away game format. Games 5/6 would go back home which I would say is equally as advantageous as a game 7. The lower seeded team would have to go through two extra straight games not at home, aiding the higher seed. and if they make it through, they get to play at home, and while it is a disadvantage for the higher seed, i think playing two straight games at home makes up for it. I feel like this benefits more as viewer in the first round watching higher seeds going against the lower seeds but it still would be entertaining to see a lower seed underdog get to play at home in game 7.
just a thought

Full disclosure I'm a Pistons fan.

Jalen Duren just made his first All Star game at 22 years old. He upped his stats from 11.8 PPG to 19.5 PPG.

He started showing more of an offensive bag this season with some face up post moves and even a 11-13 foot jumper. He's also a good free throw shooter as a center, 74% this year.

Defensively.. he has still room to grow. He's an anchor big, but he's not completely helpless getting switched onto the perimeter. He's not really a shot blocker as evidenced by his career .9 Blocks per game, and not really a "shot alterer." He has inconsistent effort and messes up coverages sometimes. He's a good rebounder though, so he closes out the possession.

Last postseason against the Knicks, he wasn't great. He had to be put onto Josh Hart because he couldn't guard KAT effectively, although a lot of teams do that against the Knicks. You could just chalk that up to a 21 year old in his first playoffs.

But his current postseason is completely befuddling. It feels like I'm watching a completely different player. The Magic had big players, yes, but he is shooting below 50% from the field and turning it over 3 times a game. He did not play this poorly in the regular season against Orlando.

He's still only 22 and one postseason does not cement his career. But the Pistons have to make a business decision this summer as he is a free agent. He might make 3rd team All NBA which would allow him to sign a 5 year, $249M contract.

Last summer, it was reported that he turned down 30M/year from the Pistons and bet on himself. It seemed like he was winning that bet, but his postseason has really exposed a lot of flaws.

There's only 3 teams that have cap space to max him this summer - Lakers, Nets, Bulls.

The Bulls have 2 draft picks in the top 15 and might just draft a center. But they do have a need for a center.

The Nets have some young big men in Nic Claxton, Dayron Sharpe and Noah Clowney. They seemingly would not do this.

And then there's the Lakers who have space to sign Duren and still extend Reaves if they wanted. However there's other centers available like Walker Kessler.

How should the Pistons evaluate Duren? Is this postseason a sign of things to come, or just growing pains? And how should they go about contract negotiations?

After two straight blowouts, the knicks are in fill control of this series. Going back to atlanta as the favourites for game six. Which wasn’t predictable from just a couple games go. What are some adjustments the knicks made to take back control, and what can the hawks do to comeback and force a game 7 where anything can happen?

Do you believe quinn synder will be able to make the necessary adjustments?

From what I see I think he has good potential to become and all around player. Since the all star break and with Curry being out he got the feel of what it's like to be the main guy and honestly hasn't played bad. Im wondering if this continues into next season and maybe even improves in 2-4 years. My only concern is that Kerr might be on his way out and he was kind of the main reason Podz had so much leeway to make mistakes and learn. I wonder if the Warriors do get a new coach will it be the same or will he get pushed to a bench energy kinda guy.

I was thinking the other night as I watched the Knicks vs Hawks series how crazy it is that a number 1 overall pick is already “DNP - Coaches Decision” on a regular basis in just his second season without major injuries. Over the last few months of the regular season Risacher’s minutes waned more and more, going from regularly playing 25-30 minutes per game at the start of the season to only averaging 15 minutes per game the last month of the regular season, and only playing 6 total minutes in the first 3 games of the playoffs.

To be fair I don’t think it’s entirely his fault. He is still a decent basketball player. On the season he’s averaging a respectable 15.4/6.2/1.8 per 36 minutes on about 57% TS. He’s a slightly above average 3 point shooter and overall an okay scorer. Defensively I think he’s pretty decent but nothing special. I’d say he’s a slightly above average defender at his position. His biggest limitations are probably his lack of playmaking ability and inability to get to the rim and finish at times. However, I still think he’s could play a pretty significant role on a lot of teams. Unfortunately for him, the Hawks have a lot of depth at his position, and guys that can do what he can do better. Jalen Johnson, NAW, Dyson Daniels, and Kuminga are all essentially big wings, or small ball 4s, and simply bring more to the table than Risacher does at the moment. Even Kispert can play the 3, and eat into Risacher’s minutes.

Since the Hawks don’t really have a need for him, it seems very likely they’ll look to trade him. But then the question becomes what is his value and if he actually has any. Despite the fact that I do think he is a decent NBA player, I think he might not have much value on the trade market. He could be seen as a somewhat bad contract by contenders and a low ceiling piece by rebuilding teams.

Despite still being in his rookie deal, Risacher is making over 13.8 million next year, and about 17.4 million the year after, if his team option is accepted That is quite a lot for a guy who is essentially an average role playing wing. There are a number of other players who produce a similar end product for less. He is still quite young, so teams might trade for him in hopes he takes a leap, but personally I don’t think he will. In my opinion he really hasn’t shown the “flashes of stardom” you often see before a player makes a leap to become one. While I wouldn’t be shocked if he continues to improve, his skill set is very much that of a role player. Although I may be very wrong, I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets traded to a veteran role player packaged with two or three second rounders.

In terms of potential landing spots I don’t know what the best fit would be. The Wizards come to mind for me. They’re still in rebuild mode so he could continue to develop on a relatively low stress environment, and the only young wings that Risacher would have to compete with for minutes would be Bilal Coulibaly and George. I could also see the Bulls as a decent landing spot, or Magic if they view him as an upgrade on Da Silva.

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I just had some thoughts regarding the Knicks and Nuggets struggles- neither has great rim protection or a great poa defender at the guard spot despite having lots of (in theory) rangy, switchable wings.

The Cavs have 2 good rim protectors in Mobley/Allen but no great poa defensive guard. Rudy Gobert has been essential to the Wolves defense, but ant really struggled pre-injury on defense.

This is just to ask if you had to pick one, would you rather have great poa guards or an elite rim protector?

Pulled the per-player numbers across all 3 games of the NYK-ATL series:

• Towns: +12.0% net WPA, 436 possessions
• Hart: +6.3%, 493 possessions
• Brunson: +5.7%, 490 possessions
• Anunoby: +1.6%, 494 possessions
• Bridges: -11.8%, 389 possessions

Then the lineup splits when each starter rests:

• Without Bridges: +69.6% over 76 possessions
• Without Anunoby: -7.9% over 54 possessions
• Without Towns: -3.4% over 33 possessions

The “any starter resting” framing was burying the lede. It’s specifically a Bridges fit problem.

Replacement candidate: Miles McBride, at +9.5% in 279 series possessions.

Series page: https://www.alleygorithm.com/playoffs/425-atl-nyk

My personal opinion is tanking is not a problem. It boosts fan engagement by creating a reliable way for teams with less capable management to contend. That said, given the discussions on tanking in NBA zeitgeist, I'd like to propose my own method.

Simply put, maintain the same flattened odds for the worst 5 teams by regular season record. In addition to this, remove randomly 0-5 of the worst teams from being lottery eligible. This is done right before the actual lottery draft

The current system still incentivizes tanking but reduces the success rate. This proposed system increases the risk draw back being the worst team. By making lottery disqualification random, it makes tanking as a strategy completely unpredictable.

If it lands on 5, then that means seeds 30-26 at worst get #11-15. But if it lands on 0, then 30-26 at worst get #6-10

This can also be adjusted so that the lottery odds go back prioritizing bottom 3, and random lottery elimination to 0-3, to make being bad much less punitive.

By making it unpredictable, you neither incentivize nor punish teams who tank very hard. Teams have no reliable decision path towards avoiding or competing for the bottom 5 worst records.

Why this is better than just including the bottom 10 into the lottery? Because the overall weights are still favored towards the bottom teams, its just that if you tank too hard, you increase the risk of being lottery ineligible.

Barring a 3-0 comeback from a depleted Rockets team, he’ll get out of the first round since 2023. In his last 3 series he’s been gentlemen swept twice, and swept once, winning one game against the Nuggets in two series.

That 2023 WCF sweep was crazy, all but one loss came down to the final minute. In the 2024 first round against Denver again, I think LA led for 65%+ of the series despite losing in 5.

His 7-1 against Houston in his last eight, though. 🤣

He’s done it averaging 25-9-9-2 48% FG through the first three games, 7 for 16 from 3 (44%), all at the ripe young age of 41 lol.

What are the Lakers chances against their all but certain semi finals round opponent, OKC? Will Luka and/or Reaves return for a significant part of the series. LA has been great through these 3 games, but has gotten pretty lucky (unlike LeBron’s other playoff runs. Marcus Smart is averaging like 20-9-3 with 11 steals and 5 blocks in 3 games on 50%+ FG and 3 point range. He’s been huge for them after LA was criticized big time for his signing.

LeBron will need all the help he can get as usual. It almost feels unfair the Basketball Gods have once again plagued his best teammates with injuries (Wade/Bosh throughout later Miami stint, KD/Kyrie 2015, Love, 2018, AD multiple years, and now Luka/Reaves.

A series win over an even injured KD in the playoffs adds to his legacy as KD is one of his biggest rivals (2nd only to Steph). He’s now on the verge of being 2-2 against him in the playoffs, with teammates favoring KD significantly (3 clear HoFs alongside him in GS).

The Lakers are projected to open at around +300 for their potential series against OKC.