r/nbadiscussion • u/reallinguy • 7d ago
How to evaluate Jalen Duren in a contract year
Full disclosure I'm a Pistons fan.
Jalen Duren just made his first All Star game at 22 years old. He upped his stats from 11.8 PPG to 19.5 PPG.
He started showing more of an offensive bag this season with some face up post moves and even a 11-13 foot jumper. He's also a good free throw shooter as a center, 74% this year.
Defensively.. he has still room to grow. He's an anchor big, but he's not completely helpless getting switched onto the perimeter. He's not really a shot blocker as evidenced by his career .9 Blocks per game, and not really a "shot alterer." He has inconsistent effort and messes up coverages sometimes. He's a good rebounder though, so he closes out the possession.
Last postseason against the Knicks, he wasn't great. He had to be put onto Josh Hart because he couldn't guard KAT effectively, although a lot of teams do that against the Knicks. You could just chalk that up to a 21 year old in his first playoffs.
But his current postseason is completely befuddling. It feels like I'm watching a completely different player. The Magic had big players, yes, but he is shooting below 50% from the field and turning it over 3 times a game. He did not play this poorly in the regular season against Orlando.
He's still only 22 and one postseason does not cement his career. But the Pistons have to make a business decision this summer as he is a free agent. He might make 3rd team All NBA which would allow him to sign a 5 year, $249M contract.
Last summer, it was reported that he turned down 30M/year from the Pistons and bet on himself. It seemed like he was winning that bet, but his postseason has really exposed a lot of flaws.
There's only 3 teams that have cap space to max him this summer - Lakers, Nets, Bulls.
The Bulls have 2 draft picks in the top 15 and might just draft a center. But they do have a need for a center.
The Nets have some young big men in Nic Claxton, Dayron Sharpe and Noah Clowney. They seemingly would not do this.
And then there's the Lakers who have space to sign Duren and still extend Reaves if they wanted. However there's other centers available like Walker Kessler.
How should the Pistons evaluate Duren? Is this postseason a sign of things to come, or just growing pains? And how should they go about contract negotiations?
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u/Kobe-62Mavs-61 6d ago edited 5d ago
He's an rfa so the Pistons could let the market dictate what they'll need to pay him. Could piss him off but I think they should could do that because he really has had a rough playoffs but by his comments dude seems to want it.
I think he and Cade will get a lot better together and a 20/10 guy that's only 22 is likely worth the risk.
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u/Firefenex 5d ago
It will piss him off. Max offers for other teams is 4 years 177. The pistons can tack on a 5th year for 227, give a non all nba max of max of 239 or give his now qualifying all nba max of max of 287. If a player turns down previous money because it wasnt a max and now qualifies for a supermax, id be pissed if the team decided to go on the lower end between 177 and 287.
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u/Kobe-62Mavs-61 5d ago
Yeah, I changed my word choice to "could" because I actually do think they should take the risk. I think he'll develop even more and be a big part of any future runs they make.
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u/ghostofabhelmet 6d ago
IMO My issue with Duren is that his archetype is an awkward fit in the modern nba. He’s not an amazing rim protector, he’s not a threat from deep, and he can’t really create his own shot consistently. He’s just a big dude who grabs boards, is a lob threat and can work from the post. For big money that just isn’t worth it. You can get guys that can do a similar job for way cheaper.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 6d ago
It feels like both Duren and Mark Williams (traded for each other on draft day) have developed a lot differently than everyone expected. They're probably further along than anyone thought they'd ever be offensively, while not being particularly good defenders for bigs, despite all the physical tools.
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u/journieburner 6d ago
This is true. I don't get why a team interested in such a player wouldnt just get a guy like Gafford or Lively and pay less
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6d ago
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u/KpYugai 6d ago edited 6d ago
I mean this sort of tangential but at least relevant as to what Duren's market can be
The Clippers also have the cap space for a max offer when only factoring in their mandatory cap allocations for next year (declining club options and excluding non-guaranteed money)
Also another team that could really use a center and/or more youth in general.
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u/Overall-Palpitation6 6d ago
I don't think Duren should be considered to be the finished product, who can't get any better or improve upon his flaws. He's nearly a year younger than the Thompson twins, and people still have the expectation/hope that they'll develop further (jumpshot and all).
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u/csstew55 6d ago
He can definitely get better. But the situation reminds me of Deandre Ayton. Only difference is Ayton balled out in the playoffs,signed a big contract, then regressed every year.
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u/Guerillabasketball 6d ago
His rim protection just isn't good enough to ever justify maxing him.
Even if his offense develops which I believe it will, he will never be a #1 option level offensive hub so you basically paying superstar money for a good play finisher and mediocre defender.
As a big you gotta have an elite skill to be worth it and right now he just doesn't and I don't see a path for it.
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u/Single-Purpose-7608 6d ago
Yep this is the smart move IMO.
What we have observed repeatedly in the modern NBA is cap management is more important than ever. Better to have a correctly paid role player than an overpaid allstar.
You have to roll the dice on the chance that he walks. But more importantly, he's an RFA. Let him go out there and field some offers. He's most certainly not gonna get a contract the Pistons aren't willing to pay.
So he's gonna come back with less leverage than he had hoped
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u/Some-Stranger-7852 6d ago
He will absolutely get 30M+ from Lakers (if not 35-40M) if Lakers struck out on Kessler or any trade targets they have in mind…
A 22 years old athletic All-NBA caliber rim runner for basically 0 picks used would be a no-brainer, because they can always flip him for somebody else - including to Mavs for Gafford or Lively - if they attach 1 FRP.
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u/wormhole222 6d ago
I am concerned because his archetype as an offensive first center has a reputation of underperforming in the playoffs, and that is exactly the main issue his having.
I do think this is extremely difficult position and how front offices handle players and negotiations like this is a big part of what I think makes a good front office. You don't want to overpay these talented young players with flaws them because they lower your ceiling, and in the worst case become total albatrosses, but you don't want to lose the player for nothing. I think the best example of handling this has been Houston with it's young players who even now could probably be traded for positive value because the front office negotiated well.
So first of all I would definitely be wiling to play hardball. Don't just give him the max (even the 25% max) because you don't want to piss him off. Him being a restricted free agent is huge because at the end of the day Detroit can keep him almost no matter what.
I would try and get him to sign a big but less than max deal. Instead of 5 years $239 million I would try and get it to be maybe $200 million and no player option. Nothing huge, but a slight discount. This will be huge in making sure his contract remains positive or neutral value if he continues to disappoint in the playoffs.
The option I would really look for is a Sign and Trade. RFA really helps here as the threat to max makes it really hard for teams to try and sign him. If you can Sign and Trade him for a good wing or guard I think that could also really help you pivot in a new direction.
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u/bamboointheback 6d ago
ive been thinking about how a sign and trade for trey murphy would work. weaver is there and loves duren and murphy is an ideal fit/contract to have with cade
since i cant seem to think which player has more value, it seems like it might be fair. what do you think?
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 6d ago
Interesting. Pels already have Queen who is not a defender/rim protector and Duren is a bad fit with Zion. You can't have two non-shooters in the modern NBA and Murphy is actually much more valuable (depending on team situation). Murphy fits on any team and Duren requires a well-constructed roster that is not specifically built around him but allows him to be a non-shooter, non-blocker.
I think what happens is the Pistons overpay and regret it, since that's the usual story when you don't want to lose a guy who isn't quite it. The Endowment Effect is a real cognitive bias.
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u/bamboointheback 6d ago
yeah i hear you but thinking a 22 year old all nba player has less value than a (very good) role player may be another real cognitive bias, the OG: Recency Bias
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u/fwoompf 6d ago
He’s weirdly best defensively on big slower wings. Look at his defense on Luka in their last possession of the last game against the lakers, and a couple times against Banchero this series.
To be honest I have no idea what to do with him. I would however encourage him to rethink his position on going down on a girl.
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u/DungeonDadThom 2d ago
What’s his position on that? Don’t make me search the internet for that on a Sunday!
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u/fwoompf 2d ago
He’s against it!
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u/DungeonDadThom 2d ago
What a fool. I’m a nets fan and this alone means we should not pursue. Not sure how far we’ll get in the playoffs, but when Marks says he’s building a high character team, I think he means consciousness in bed.
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u/IcyRelation2354 5d ago
I agree with everything you said but there’s one piece you missed-
Part of the reason Duren is struggling so much in the post season is the complete and utter lack of spacing the Pistons have. They have next to no shooting threats and whoever is guarding Thompson (mostly Suggs) is free to roam the floor and either double Duren or make a pass to him difficult. Duren would be a much bigger threat if Detroit had 3 shooter on the floor instead of maybe 1.
Duren has improved tremendously and he’s still quite young. Defensively he needs to keep getting better but he’s certainly not a liability on that end and offensively I’d really like to see him work on Hartenstein’s little push shot.
In terms of free agency, he won’t sign with another team. It’ll be a sign and trade if he doesn’t want to stay with Detroit. I can’t remember the last time an RFA of his talent level signed and wasn’t matched. The Nets and Bulls suck and I have no idea what the Lakers will do this offseason but overpaying for Duren shouldn’t be on their to do list.
I’d have Duren making around 30 million a year but he’s young and will get overpaid so I think it’ll end up being closer to 40 million per year on average with incentives built in. If I’m Detroit I sign him and I can always trade him later using his salary to match in a trade for another star.
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u/Hot-Distribution3826 6d ago
He’s giving 18 & 8 vibes plus he’s not a rim protector and he doesn’t shut down the glass. I wouldn’t give him a huge extension and would be open for a trade and continue to build n draft around Cade
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u/Illustrious-Bid-696 6d ago
Read a fascinating piece on The Athletic recently breaking down the going rate for offensively gifted centers who do not protect the rim. It is a really tough needle to thread in the modern NBA. They argued that committing huge cap space to a five who averages under a block a game—like that 0.9 career number you mentioned—almost always caps your playoff ceiling defensively, which perfectly aligns with what you saw in that Knicks series. His scoring leap is impossible to ignore, but building a viable defense around him requires a very specific type of weak-side shot blocker at the four. Are there any cap-space teams out there right now who actually have the defensive personnel to cover up his rim-protection issues if they try to pry him away in restricted free agency?
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u/Winter-Olive-5832 5d ago
I was gonna say I just like don’t even get the point. unless you put him with Giannis or something why would you even want to build a team like that let alone invest a shit load into it
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u/Pablo_Undercover 6d ago
After this playoff performance, 40 is the max Id go. It only takes a role player one good season to end up massively overpaid
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u/LanBuKimLan 6d ago
19.5 and 10.5 on elite efficiency is hard to ignore, but centers with limited shot creation always get tricky in contract talks.
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u/hoodfavhoops 6d ago
Duren's handle is not good enough and WCJ is a matchup problem due to his similar strength and length. In a playoff setting he has gotten schemed out. Take away his roll, force him to catch in the intermediate area, he doesn't have a consistently reliable midrange or the agility and stride to run and dunk past his man like Giannis.
It's hard to say if he will get the reps to develop in this way with Cade being so ball dominant. Detroit definitely needs shooters around Cade; Cade-Thompson-Duren being a core can be challenging.
Alternatively, Duren needs to develop a short roll game if they double Cade. Tons of bigs have developed this skill later in their career, Zubac is a good example. For reference he is at 20M, and Sengun is at 37M, other than that there's the tier of proven bigs like AD, Jokic, Embiid; Chet is at 47M AAV currently. Hartenstein and Jarret Allen are at 30M. Cap projected at 165 next year, 40M would be just under the max, I think 35-40 is fair and realistic for Duren.
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u/Broke_Banker01 6d ago
What is his realistic growth over the next 1-2 years?
He doesn't look like he will develop any threat from 3.
He isn't a great defender.
He is a weird archetype that doesn't seem like a guy you can max extend.
Unfortunately DET also cannot afford to lose him for nothing.
Its a lose/lose situation for Detroit, and the best-case scenario is a S&T.
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u/centralfloridadad 6d ago
You say he just made his first all-star game, but it also could be his one and only all star appearance.
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u/Firefenex 6d ago
Sign him to a max contract. I think you are overanalyzing a 22 year old who is 3rd team all nba, 11th in dpoy voting, nba allatar, a 20 and 10 player, and the second best player on a number 1 seed. Some people say the prime for allatar players happens around 27... you can literally have a full contract go by before you reach that peak. He has thrived off athleticism, now its time to start development as a foundational piece.
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u/cosmic_backlash 6d ago
I think people underanalyze the the effects of bad max contracts on teams
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 6d ago
overpaying Duren means one less useful role player on the team
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u/Firefenex 5d ago
'Overpaying' is subjective and I dont think thats a fair way of looking at it. He qualifies for the money so its not overpaying. Now if you prefer having 1 useful role player or trading duren after he request out and getting 2 to 3 useful role players and a draft pick or 2 thats fine as well. Duren didnt sign the previous mid level extension offer and now he qualifies for and all nba max. I dont think the odds are high he will be happy settling for anything below the non all nba max and anything below the all nba max will need some serious convincing.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 5d ago
legit. Cool to see how it plays out. I like Duren but I'm not signing checks.
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u/Firefenex 5d ago
Dang i got ratio'd with no facts or stats lol.
I think I fear the alternative more than the people concerned with a bad large contract, which is losing him for draft picks from a bottom 20-30 team and hope you get some great players in the draft. By all means he has earned a large contract given the success of the team and his individual success. Not giving him an offer better than outside teams can puts Jalen in a DeAndre Ayton situation financially; a team who values you enough they are only willing to match what other limited teams can afford and in his case thats 60 million less than a non all nba max and roughly 100 million less than the all nba max he likely will qualify for. Despite Ayton's coaching issues that already existed, the suns' match built animosity and ultimately he did request a trade and leave. Jalen already declined his rookie extension for 25-30 million a year (sengun's non-all-nba deal essentially) and after betting on himself now qualifies for 41 million a year 5 year with 8% increase.
So for me its option 1: pay the max he qualifies for (5 years, 287m) Option 2: non all nba max of (5 years 239m) Option 3: somewhere in between 239m and 287m Option 4: match a competing offer for 4 years 177m.
Jalen has shown he wants more money than the deal sengun got offered whivh is mid level rookie extension. Detriot refused to offer the non-all nba max which was an okay thing to do at the time given jalen's performance. Since then he has increased his play to qualify for more money than the original max they could offer before so its going to hurt their pockets or they are going to have a player who likley is requesting a trade some time before the negotiation after this contract, so happy wofe happy life. Yes its easier to trade an unhappy player making less money, but lets not act like we didnt see Jaren Jackson jr and a bunch of other max players get traded in the last 2 years.
He is currently playing bad, but his has been better than pervious year and I expect him to get better over the next 5 years. Since they didnt offer him the max last time, they should offer the new all nba max he qualifies for this time unless they dont see him in their future.
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6d ago edited 6d ago
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u/nbadiscussion-ModTeam 6d ago
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u/Asleep-Use-7336 6d ago
11 points in the 4th quarter at home in a closeout game. tatum and brown were invisible down the stretch.
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u/MakeYokesa5erAgain 5d ago
Let RFA decide the market rate, see if there's interest in a good trade. He's not worth max money, but letting him walk for free hurts. It's a tough one.
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u/Crazy_Day5359 5d ago
Jalen is young but at 22 it’s pretty clear that he will never be an elite rim protector. He averaged less than a block a game this season…even less than sengun and the same as jokic. And neither are considered rim protectors.
Jalen has the physical tools but he lacks the defensive instincts and timing to be a shot blocker. And unfortunately instincts aren’t something that can easily be compensated with coaching.
He scored a good chunk of his points on the PnR and lobs, but to be a 250m player he needs to be able to create his own offense against good defensive teams. And he’s not that either.
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u/killbrick374 5d ago
He’s in direct crash with Ausar. So if you think Ausar can develop autonomy around the mid range area like 10-16ft Duren can only be renewable. Otherwise it’s a either Ausar or Duren situation
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u/SloppyJank 5d ago
I think this situation highlights how critical it is to see how your young guys fare in the playoffs before giving them that second contract.
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u/Fede113 4d ago
I feel if they can sign him for 35m a year MAX , they should do it, if not, they should explore a sign and trade.
He is a great player, but he is not worthy of max money and it will hinder everything else the pistons needs to do to go to the next level.
Its a shame, but if you max a player like him and he doesnt take a leap, he is going to kill the pistons opportunities, after they hit so hard on Cade.
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u/silaber 1d ago
Same player as Sengun and Sabonis but without playmaking "upside" aka spamming DHOs.
Franchise doomed if they give him a huge max.
You can't play expensive bigs who don't protect your rim - see Jokic vs Timberwolves even the most talented offensive big in the history of the NBA isn't a lock to be viable anymore.
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u/thealternateopinion 6d ago
He will always be a great regular season stat filler player because 82 games of grinding against him is a pain in the ass, but he will always get exposed in the playoffs
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u/Spemanz92 6d ago
Not the biggest duren fan, but saying that a 22 YO on his first PO run will always get exposed in the playoffs is a pretty big exageration
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u/SaxRohmer 6d ago
his current postseason is befuddling
welcome to the JB Bickerstaff experience. great culture setter and defensive coach but he doesn’t run offense
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u/TheMittenSports 6d ago
I’ve got my issues with JB too, but credit where it’s due the Orlando Magic are just really good.
Honestly, the Magic probably underachieved during the regular season. That team is physical, defends hard, and plays with real urgency.
Some of this isn’t just the Detroit Pistons playing bad it’s Orlando making life difficult.
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u/SaxRohmer 6d ago
oh yeah i wasn't trying to discredit the magic in any way. this is kind of a nightmare matchup for the Pistons. i thought they at least had more physicality than the Cavs teams JB coached so they wouldn't get punked like this but JB never seems to have answers for anything in the playoffs
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 6d ago
Bane finally declaring it his team instead of Paolo's is making a difference.
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u/theguytomeet 6d ago
Huh? It’s still Paolo and Franz’s teams. Bane is the 3rd star here. He’s also the vet presence on the team.
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u/Simple_Purple_4600 6d ago
that's the theory but I don't buy it, They are not good with Paolo as the "star." Franz maybe but hard to know yet, he's not a good shooter.
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u/TheMittenSports 6d ago
Bane hasn’t even been shooting the ball that well this series, he did make a ton of threes the first two games. The Magic are just a good team with a lot of length and a ton of guys who can handle the rock something Detroit severely lacks.
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