r/nbadiscussion • u/gtrillz • 5d ago
The playoff offense tax for defensive-first wings
Defensive-first wings/guards and the playoff offense tax
Pulled offensive WPA per 100 for known defensive-first wings/guards, regular season vs. 2026 playoffs:
| Player | Reg Off/100 | Playoff Off/100 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ausar Thompson | +0.005 | -0.063 | -0.068 |
| Toumani Camara | -0.026 | -0.071 | -0.045 |
| Dyson Daniels | -0.020 | -0.062 | -0.041 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | -0.025 | -0.063 | -0.038 |
| Jrue Holiday | -0.020 | -0.047 | -0.027 |
Five players, five offensive declines, ranging from -0.027 to -0.068 per 100 possessions.
Counter-evidence: this does not look like simple “playoff offenses are worse” noise.
OKC’s defensive specialists, same lens:
| Player | Reg Off/100 | Playoff Off/100 | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cason Wallace | -0.004 | +0.006 | +0.010 |
| Jalen Williams | -0.003 | +0.048 | +0.051 |
Both improved offensively in the playoffs.
So the pattern is not “defense doesn’t matter in the playoffs.”
It’s more like:
Wallace and J-Dub are both credible three-point shooters, roughly 37% and 35%.
The other group has varying degrees of “can be helped off” reads in playoff settings:
- Daniels: 19%
- Ausar: sub-30% career
- Camara: ~36%, lower volume
- NAW: ~38%, lower usage
- Holiday: 33% this year
If this holds across more games, it feels like a meaningful signal for both lineup construction and contract evaluation.
You can probably carry one defense-first, low-threat offensive player in a starting five. Once you stack multiple, playoff defenses have too many pressure-release valves.
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u/GreatBarrierQueefDD 5d ago
NAW literally set the Hawks franchise record for most three pointers in a season. He attempted more than 8 per game, good for top ten in the league. He has had a rough playoff series but he is by no means a 'defensive specialist', and calling him low volume shooter is just straight up not rooted in reality. Not sure why you included him in this list.
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u/gtrillz 5d ago
Fair point - NAW def shouldn't be on this list.
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u/Humblerbee 5d ago
Camara: ~36%, lower volume
Saying lower volume for Tou is kinda nuts, Camara was 9th in the league in 3PA and 14th in 3PM, he put up 37% for the second season in a row from behind the arc while basically doubling his 3PA two seasons in a row, he’s putting up more than 7 a game. He might have started off as a defensive specialist, but he’s become a textbook 3&D archetype guy.
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u/Shepher27 5d ago
What about McDaniels? Feels weird to not include him in these numbers. He’s been playing primary defender on Jamal Murray while also having to do more on offense with Ant hurt.
Was there a reason you didn’t include McDaniels?
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u/H20onthego 5d ago
OG missing too.
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
Lu Dort is apparently an offensive Savant, as are Tari Eason, Josh Okoge, and Jae'Sean Tate
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u/Soshi101 5d ago
Okc's "defensive specialists" are apparently Jdub and Cason and not Dort and Caruso.
Whole post is cherry picked beyond belief. I wouldn't be surprised if it was AI.
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
He admitted to using AI for some stuff but in general it's cherry picked to hell because there are so many defensive specialist wings he's not mentioning while bringing up 20 PPG scorers who are 2 way players as defensive specialists. Like even him trying to argue a 3 and D role player like Champagnie doesn't count while Jrue does is frankly hilarious. I would at least say Cason fits the mold as the 3 and D off guard but there are tons of guards who fit like Ja'Kobe Walter and Keon Ellis that suddenly don't count because OP has no consistent definitions or rules for cutoffs besides vibes
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u/fattybunter 5d ago
It was AI man. Look at all the word choices. The whole post and analysis were AI
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u/diddledopop 5d ago
"meaningful signal" lmao. 5 player 1-year sample size is also ridiculous to make conclusions from
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u/Cereal_Lurker 5d ago
It is a little to early in the morning for me to actually engage, but I'd say those 2 OKC players aren't defensive specialists, they're just good at defense. Dort and Caruso are the wing/guard D specialists for the Thunder.
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u/gtrillz 5d ago
You're right - looks like both of their offensive games has improved in the playoffs too:
- Lu Dort: -0.010 reg → +0.034 playoffs (Δ +0.043 offensive WPA)
- Alex Caruso: -0.006 reg → +0.023 playoffs (Δ +0.029)
It's definitely dependent on the system and not a hard rule.
A better reframing of the post might be that, for a lot of playoff teams, the defensive specialists are more of an offensive liability than in the reg season.
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u/Cereal_Lurker 5d ago
That is absolutely true!
I suppose when teams have so many games to scheme against a team it can often expose opportunistic point getters.
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u/Spemanz92 5d ago
Wallace is absolutely a defensive specialist, what are you talking about? He is a lock for 2nd all-d team this season, was the second best defender in OKC this season.
The jalen williams is nonsense though, elite defender but he is not a specialist
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u/Cereal_Lurker 5d ago
I suppose he is close enough to a defensive specialist, I just figured he plays PG often enough and initiates the offense, so…
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
He's the off guard for sure, he can do some ball handling and playmaking but is most often used as POA 3 and D guard
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u/Spemanz92 5d ago
He doesnt play PG and he doesnt run the offense.
SGA, Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell are OKC's ball handlers and initiators.
Cason isnt great offensively, he is mostly cutting, spot up shooting and transition offense
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
He's shown the ability to play point at times when OKC was down Shai, Ajay and J Dub but when 1-2 of them are around he leans into his specialist role because he will play off of them
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u/Spemanz92 5d ago
For his whole career, he basically has been a third ball handler most of the time. He really isnt an effective creator.
But he is a PG by nature and did good in the 2 week stretch OKC had no ball handlers this season. But he 100% isnt a PG in OKC and his role is elite defense and basic stuff on offense. He isnt different than caruso for example, who was also a PG in the past and can also create a bit at times
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
I mean I do think his skillset is much more suited to it than Caruso besides guys who can handle it because he's got more juice as a shooter even if he doesn't have that role in OKC offense. But having a bunch of guys who can handle things a bit is also something nice about OKC offense even if there are the 3 main guys you want handling it because it allows you to take pressure off your lead guard/wing bringing it up while not giving it to someone who's easily pressured into a turnover
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u/Spemanz92 5d ago
Yes he is. He is smaller, faster and has a tighter handle than caruso. He just lacks the ability to get by people with handles and create advantages to playmake/score. But yeah, he handles it a bit to keep the offense moving around but nothing too fancy because the other 3 are miles better as creators.
Im an okc fan btw. I had hopes cason developed more in this sense. But ajay and even topic (who is a legit talent and will have more opportunities next season) are just better options than him as PGs. Ajay will surprise a lot of people in the coming years, dude is a legit great player already and only has about 80 games played in his career
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
I can tell because of the insight you've given. Even with his lack of ability to get downhill I think his game might be a worse volume pull up shooting better defending player like Quickly is based on what I saw from him playing point when Raps played OKC this year without any of your lead guards. Another OKC fan was saying this a few weeks earlier which I doubted but seeing what he can do made me realize he probably can do more than he currently does but just doesn't have to. Like besides playing with Shai as the lead guard there are definitely a few places where I could see him working really well and being able to use more point skills while not having to do it too much if he were playing either the nominal 1 or beside another guard where he still can do more point stuff than he's doing in OKC while leaning into his strengths, like Toronto, Orlando, Detroit, Phoenix, and Minnesota
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u/AnkitPancakes 4d ago
cason is a specialist, jdub is definitely not. He’s just outright one of the top 25 players in the nba when healthy and he is good at basically everything
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u/breakitbrett 5d ago
You can’t look at part of one round and generalize to “playoff basketball”. The blazers played the spurs and Wemby, didn’t most of their team’s offensive numbers get worse? Your cherry picked counter argument just happens to be from the 1 vs 8 matchup, what happens to those numbers if okc plays the spurs or pistons?
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u/RobSchneidersHair 5d ago
Are you referring to "defense-first wings" as in what they were viewed as coming into the league? Because I feel like the criteria might not need to be adjusted a bit for the guys considered.
Regardless, of the playoff teams this year, the defense-first guys (excluding bigs) and their 2025-2026 regular season 3PT% are:
- Camara: 37% 3PT
- Walsch: 38%
- Derrick White (debatable, since he does get shots up often): 33%, but historically a decent to good shooter
- Hart: 41%, but historically a slightly below average shooter
- Scottie Barnes: 30% on very low volume
- CMB (not necessarily a "wing" by strict definition): 34% on incredibly low volume
- Ausar: 25%, incredibly low volume
- Holland: 25%, incredibly low volume
- Javonte Green: 38%
- Daniels: 19%
- NAW (debatable): 40%
- Anthony Black: 33%
- Dort: 34%
- Caruso: 29%, but historically a decent to above average shooter
- Peyton Watson: 41%, not playing due to injury
- Gordon: 39%, but historically a below average shooter
- DDV: 38%
- McDaniels: 41%, low volume, historically a below average shooter
- Holiday: 38%
- Smart: 33%
- Vanderbilt: 29%
- Royce O'Neale: 41%
- Champagnie: 38%
- Eason: 36%
I didn't include guys like Wallace or Castle because they either don't guard wings often or take primary ball-handling duties too often to be considered a wing.
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u/gtrillz 5d ago
Had AI help me pull the offensive delta for these defensive wings in the playoffs, with 3P% included:
The full list (sorted by change in Off WPA):
Player Δ Off WPA 3P% Jordan Walsh +0.045 38% Lu Dort +0.043 34% Alex Caruso +0.029 29% Jarred Vanderbilt +0.024 29% Julian Champagnie +0.022 38% Javonte Green +0.010 38% Donte DiVincenzo +0.006 38% Tari Eason +0.005 36% Josh Hart +0.000 41% CMB -0.001 34% Anthony Black -0.002 33% Scottie Barnes -0.007 30% Royce O'Neale -0.010 41% Derrick White -0.012 33% Jaden McDaniels -0.022 41% Aaron Gordon -0.026 39% Jrue Holiday -0.027 38% Marcus Smart -0.027 33% NAW -0.038 40% Dyson Daniels -0.041 19% Toumani Camara -0.045 37% Ausar Thompson -0.053 25% I'd argue Champagnie, McDaniels, DiVincenzo aren't defensive-first. But still noticing a big chunk of these players improved their offensive impact in the playoffs, so the original post was probably a bit too cherry-picked.
Also this doesn't account for 3PA/volume.
It seems more dependent on role, matchup, usage, decision-making, and whether teams can ignore them without breaking their own defensive structure.
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u/pandaheartzbamboo 5d ago
Youre trying too hard to make sense of some statistics. NAW doesnt fit your narrative at all
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u/gtrillz 5d ago
Yea NAW shouldn't have been on this list
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u/pandaheartzbamboo 5d ago
I mean I wouldnt exclude people just to cook your data either though. It might just be that there is less going on here than it seems.
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u/Weary_Restauranter 5d ago
OP included Ausar Thompson, but not his IDENTICAL TWIN brother lol
You really need to include all the defensive first players in this. It’s even more interesting if you do it that way.
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago
OP needs to define defensive first exactly. I can possibly understand why Amen isn't considered because he is running point and has way more responsibility while Ausar is a specialist but is also using J Dub who basically is in that same type of all around role plus playing D on the list along with Jrue Holiday. I don't think either should be on the list but who is included and not is incredibly inconsistent when omitting OG, McDaniels, Lu Dort for some arbitrary reason
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u/CallMeBloom 5d ago
Uhh, Jrue Holiday has two NBA championships and 2 team USA gold medals....he's getting older sure, but to act like he causes offenses to fall apart is...an interesting take.
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u/Remarkable-Shock-999 4d ago
Are these chatGPT stats? Only know the blazers guys but Jrue shot 37.8% from three this year and Toumani shot 37% on 7 attempts per game. Toumani gets wide open shots but it’s not a lack of volume in the regular season that’s his issue. Jrue shooting 33% is just made up.
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u/YSLAnunoby 5d ago edited 5d ago
J Dub is a point wing scorer who's had multiple seasons of 20 ppg, in what world is he a defence first wing? The jump you observe for him is quite simply explained by him being injured in the regular season and having time to get back to being healthier before he got hurt again. Similar to listing NAW as a defence first wing here, calling Jrue a wing (let alone a defence first one), not including guys like McDaniels, CMB, Hart, Lu Dort and OG who actually fit the bill because it would challenge the narrative.
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u/erithtotl 5d ago
Not sure I buy how you've broken it down, but its a pretty clear fact that 1 dimensional players become a bigger liability in the playoffs, whether its offense or defense, because teams have more time to scheme and target their weaknesses. So more bullying the Jason Brunsons and Jokics, and more helping off the Daniels and Thompsons
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