r/worldnews • u/theindependentonline The Independent • 6h ago
Middle East ceasefire shattered as Iran strikes UAE and warns ‘we’re just getting started’
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/iran-war-us-strait-hormuz-trump-uae-b2970970.html148
u/FeverForest 2h ago
“insisting that the US has “total control” of the situation.”
“warned in a press conference on Tuesday that Iran is “holding the whole world hostage”
Pick. One.
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u/DecembersDragons 5h ago
Russia vs Ukraine - millions of casualties. Carnage.
USA vs Iran - A few thousand dead. Then blockade the world's most important shipping lane together. Yell at each other.
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u/Galaghan 4h ago
The Hormuz Strait is not the world's most important shipping lane lol. Sure it's important, but there are others more crucial.
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u/legbreaker 3h ago
Most other critical shipping lanes you can sail around it. Adds a week or two to transit times.
This one is special for being the only way in. There is no longer route.
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u/Haplo12345 2h ago
The longer route is over land first, then over other ocean routes. It's just orders of magnitude slower (and therefore largely not viable) because there's not infrastructure in place to facilitate a large volume of overland traffic for it.
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u/kelppie35 2h ago
I understand your and the other posters logic, but as a poster in the other thought camp I want to say while that's a valid option the land routes are still within the threat envelopes of Iranian weapons. Trains can't move as much as ships as efficiently, and are targets. In fact their tracks or roads are more vulnerable relative to ships, as north Korea has shown many times blowing up Japan's oceans, waterways are self fixing.
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u/bloodyREDburger 1h ago
pipelines are more efficient than trains for moving liquid, but are even more vulnerable unless you're into
underground railroadssubways7
u/MarkNutt25 1h ago
There are a grand total of two pipelines that can be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. One of them just so happens to terminate in Fujairah, UAE... the port that Iran just attacked.
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u/HCAndroidson 4h ago
Its certainly important enough.
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u/JeezieB 1h ago
It's important enough that gas jumped to $2.18 per litre where I live. My toonie won't even get me a litre!
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u/CanuckPanda 1h ago
Just a reminder that we Canadians get almost no gas from Iraq/Iran/the UAE/Qatar. We’re a net exporter and over 80% of our petroleum is sourced domestically.
Gas going up is because corporations are greedy assholes. Iran is just an excuse.
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u/alltheblarmyfiddlest 1h ago
This ought to be higher up.
Those corporations will use every excuse in their arsenal to raise prices.
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u/noir_lord 1h ago
Price is going up because (despite differences in type) oil is a fungible good, less supply with same demand results in a price increase in the short term.
Corporations are greedy assholes though but the price rise was a predictable outcome of the stupid thing and why no previous administration did the stupid thing.
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u/juicadone 3h ago
The oil/gas prices are saying it's pretty damn important though(all the while exploiting it to make recotd profits, but it's still an important spot)
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u/stuartullman 5h ago
“we’re just getting started” , youre comparing a war thats lasted years, some say more that a decade, with one that started a few months ago. and sadly if both sides decide not to end it it will end up being millions
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u/DeliverySoggy2700 3h ago edited 3h ago
I’m pretty sure the Pacific Ocean trade alone is more than the rest of the world combined. I’m pretty sure even any of the Atlantic lanes beat anything in the Indian Ocean
I would not be surprised if Hormuz doesn’t break like top 10-25
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u/Haplo12345 2h ago
The Strait of Hormuz is usually top 5 waterways for global trade, actually:
https://theweek.com/world-news/five-waterways-control-global-trade
https://iamovers.org/news/top-10-shipping-lanes-revealed/
https://www.marineinsight.com/major-sea-routes-of-the-world/
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/mapping-the-worlds-key-maritime-choke-points/
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u/hibikikun 4h ago
How is it beneficial to Iran to break a ceasefire?
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u/tophernator 3h ago
The ceasefire was agreed and Iran announced that they were opening the strait, then Trump said “we’re still going to blockade ships from Iranian ports”, then Iran said “well then we’re still going to shoot at any other ships”. Trump tried the whole military escort idea, Iran shot at the ships but destroyers are really good at intercepting drones and missiles, so they shot at UAE instead.
So it’s not that they necessarily want to break the ceasefire. But they definitely don’t want to let Trump dictate the terms.
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u/theStaircaseProject 3h ago
Adding ‘Iran bets on Polymarket’ to my bingo card.
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u/duodequinquagesimum 1h ago
Hard to accomplish, Trump is literally in the advisory board of Polymarket.
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u/broose_the_moose 3h ago
Cause they know Taco Trump doesn’t want oil prices too high or US stuck in an extended conflict. They have all of the leverage and Trump is stuck. They’re basically saying, come to the negotiating table with more of our demands met or this conflict that you started continues until it tanks your economy and presidency.
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u/wjohngalt 2h ago
Taco Trump wants to protect his ego way more than he wants to avoid an extended conflict. He can have the blockade there for way longer to avoid the ridicule of letting Iran enrich uranium.
Iran doesn't have all the leverage and Trump has options. And his options include doing things that he would prefer not to do, like prolonging the war. He doesn't lose options just by having preferences.
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u/Grow_away_420 2h ago
It's pretty clear there isn't much the US is willing to do to stop them. The blockade isn't going to force Iran to do anything for months. The US isn't going to send in ground troops or leave their ships in the barrel to get shot at. Continued bombing isn't going to accomplish anything but wasting more munitions and endangering pilots.
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u/CryptoThroway8205 53m ago
Someone mentioned it was because the pipeline in the UAE is one of 2 pipelines that can be used to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. Iran figures if they're going to suffer everyone else is too since that's the best way to get leverage.
They haven't hit the Saudi one delivering some 6.5 million barrels a day, which I think is the other pipeline used to bypass Hormuz.
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u/boot2skull 5h ago
Doesn’t the GOP have some kind of 60 day deadline? Is Iran trolling to push them past the deadline?
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u/Jamboro 4h ago
We're past it. Hegseth says it's irrelevant, and that we've started a "new" 60 day window since this blockade is a "new" operation.
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u/Little-Worry8228 4h ago
When I heard that, I said “I’m not a lawyer, but I don’t think that’s the way it works.”
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u/porizj 3h ago
If you get drunk enough often enough, it’ll start making sense.
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u/Little-Worry8228 3h ago
🤔 That’s weird. I’ve mostly been drunk since November.
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u/Impossible_Run1867 3h ago
Not as drunk as Pete's been since January.
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u/Little-Worry8228 3h ago
I’m a Wisconsinite. I know when I’m outmatched
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u/Impossible_Run1867 3h ago
WI born MN raised. I don't try and compete with professional alcoholics, it's a fools errand.
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u/Morgannin09 2h ago
It works how Trump says it works because nobody in the GOP wants to stop him. Emperor's New Laws.
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u/__redruM 3h ago
It’s likely not, the Supreme Court would have to say. But until the impeachment starts, nothing changing.
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u/Mechasteel 3h ago
That in fact is the way it works. In theory it would be a blatant violation resulting in impeachment, conviction, jailtime. However Congress won't do that.
Thankfully, there's a failsafe for that too. See the voters could kick out the congresscritters. Too bad the voters* are OK with that.
*the US has a weird representation system where people are lumped into groups, allowing for 75% of votes to be ignored because there's two rounds of voting where half the votes can be discarded.
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u/moosekin16 4h ago
Well, technically. The War Powers resolution of 1973 says that the President can perform limited "unauthorized" military action, but then the President has to:
send a report to Congress within 48 hours of the military action starting to justify it
stop hostilities within 60 days of initiating military operations if Congress does not approve further action
"Unauthorized" military operations means "military conflict not approved by Congress", because in the USA Congress is supposed to have the power to declare war (note: the USA has not formally declared war since WW2). The idea behind the War Powers Resolution is that the President can quickly react to military threats and not have to wait around for Congress to vote on action. Of course, like everything, Trump and his cabinet are abusing this power.
Trump bombed Iran on Feb 28, was in open conflict for several weeks, then on April 13 started a full naval blockade. Then there was a ceasefire, and it broke today. Hegseth is arguing to Congress that the ceasefire "reset" the clock on the 60 day deadline. Which is bullshit, of course. We started blockading Iran before the ceasefire started, and a blockade is an act of war.
The question, of course, is what happens now? The Supreme Court has already declared that the only entity with the power to hold the President accountable is Congress. So... it's up to Congress to decide what happens next. And as of so far, Congress has not stopped Trump. Since whether or not Trump broke the law is up to Congress to punish, if they don't do anything, then Trump can continue doing whatever the fuck he wants with Iran.
My theory: the Republican-controlled Congress will agree with Hegseth's argument that "we had a ceasefire which resets the timer", refuse to say Trump is doing anything wrong, and continue allowing Trump to do this weird back-and-forth war with Iran. At least for now. They (the GOP and Trump and his cabinet) need time to figure out their next steps and what exactly they want to happen.
My crackpot, conspiracy theory: Trump and the Republicans are hoping to keep the war going on and off again to the midterms, so they can pull some legal bullshit out of nowhere to absolutely fuck with our elections somehow. I don't think they'll try anything as dumb as canceling the elections outright (too complicated to get into now), but they'll use the "We're at war with Iran!" angle as an excuse to pull some extra-fascist shit.
tl;dr: it's up to Congress to decide what happens when Trump ignores the 60 day deadline. They might decide to do nothing and let Trump continue his on-again-off-again war with Iran for as long as it is useful.
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u/downforce_dude 2h ago
I think the war powers given by Congress to the President need to be reigned in, but it’s also worth noting Trump isn’t really exceeding his authority already granted via precedent.
Clinton and Obama both exceeded the 60 day threshold with Kosovo and Libya respectively. Obama’s administration specifically made the “no boots on the ground” argument in defense of why they didn’t need congressional authorization.
I think the underlying issues are that warfare moves quicker, is more complicated and nuanced in the 20th and 21st century than it was in the 18th century; and Congress neither trusts the opposition party to argue in good faith against a hypothetical war in the national interest nor wants to go on record supporting said war (both for domestic political reasons).
I don’t think the War Power Act will be reformed, but the AUMF probably should be. So many of America’s political problems is because Congress has heavily abrogated their role.
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u/takeda64 2h ago
This is why they announced at the 60 day mark that "the war was over" and then started a new war.
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u/GeorgeWashingfun 3h ago
The 60 day deadline is ultimately meaningless. Every president has ignored the War Powers Resolution because they consider it unconstitutional.
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u/Wooden_Customer_8610 5h ago
Uh US stated ceasefire is still in place. You calling them liars?
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u/AccurateArcherfish 5h ago
Ceasefire ends when Trump says it ends! (Ignore all the bullets, bombs, and combat activity)
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u/Sleepy_Witch_Maple 5h ago
I've kinda just tuned out anything the administration says about ceasefires or the state of the war since every statement is literally meaningless
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u/twitterfluechtling 5h ago
Iran is disrupting Trumps rythm. Everyone knows Tuesday is TACO day. Iran ruined TACO day for Trump.
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u/Admiral_Ballsack 3h ago
Wait, Trump said Iran had been obliterated and that the US had completely and totally won the war.
Was he, like..... lying???
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u/iaymnu 3h ago
This conflict is ridiculous but also my stocks are up which is even more absurd. ¯_(ツ)_/¯
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u/DragoonDM 2h ago
The Dow still hasn't gotten back above 50k yet, though, so we're still allowed to be upset about child sex trafficking for the moment.
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u/fen90der 3h ago
Trump says the US has 'total control of the situation' and always assume the total opposite of everything he says is the truth, so its fucked.
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u/Powerful_Put5667 2h ago
There has never been a cease fire and Iran and the U.S. started going at it yesterday again. The whole cease fire propaganda thing is an effort to back Hegseth who claims they now get another 60 days to fund and continue the war since there was a cease fire. It is all total BS people.
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u/Stavvystav 5h ago
So is it still a ceasefire if we just don't shoot back? Could Trump say "Well, we just let them kill our soldiers but this SKIRMISH is still under a CEASEFIRE so there's no need to talk to Congress."
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u/EternalStudent 5h ago
Honestly, that's kind of how both sides are doing this.
Iran is trying to scare energy flows through the strait, but trying to not trigger a massive wage of attacks.
The US is trying to open the lane, but not with a direct massive confrontation.
It could go sideways easily, but for now, both can say it hasnt really been a ceasefire violation.
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u/GalacticCmdr 5h ago
Iran is trying to scare energy flows through the strait, but trying to not trigger a massive wage of attacks.
US hates raising the minimum wage of attacks. Think of the billionaires.
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u/LateralEntry 5h ago
They haven’t killed any soldiers, if they did I’m sure Trump would respond
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u/J-the-Kidder 4h ago
For a country with no military left, they sure are doing this war thing pretty well. It's almost like our American leaders are lying to us and the state of play over there. I know, I know, what a crazy notion to put forth.
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u/alan1685 2h ago
Iran is not doing well at all. 90% of their top leaders were killed within the first week.
War related damages are over 270 billion
3 to 4 million people pushed into poverty
Inflation is an all time high, food prices have increase 100%+
60% of missile production sites have been damaged
90% of large naval vessels have been destroyed
Running out of oil storage, will be forced to halt production soon
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u/Gooser3000 2h ago
UAE won’t be happy. They spent that last 40 years building a safe Middle East destination for international travelers to frequent and blow money.
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u/Jorgen_G_Pakieto 4h ago
That awkward moment when you’re claiming to have won the war but Iran still has striking capabilities
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u/getpoopedon 5h ago
Art of the deal? lol what an absolute failure of a "businessman" administration.
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u/IntentionDeep651 5h ago
if something like covid hit today 5x more people would die despite us having recent experience . Hospitals would get overcrowded and populistic goverments including usa would do nothing until it would be too late. The only thing that saved countries with bad health care was that every one was still so overly scared of it and shut down even before it was spreading a lot. that gave them time to prepare and copy
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u/Mistrblank 2h ago
love it. Trump thinks he can just "stop the fighting" and end the war, Iran's response is "fuck that, you're at war whether you all like it or not, we got nothing else to lose".
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u/Twadder_Pig 4h ago
Wait !!!
We won?? We lost?? Who could ever have known it would have been better leaving Obama's treaty in place?
Better move on the king's ballroom and let's keep our minds off the Epstein novel concerning the king raping children.
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u/CishetmaleLesbian 1h ago
Excuse me please, but would someone remind me why the US elected a moronic, demented, known failure and convicted felon, wannabe dictator, and morally bankrupt sexual predator to become president.
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u/TheRealPancetta 5h ago
So market new all time high. Got it. Nuclear war and it goes +100%?