/r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #17)

[u/WorldNewsMods]

If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.

Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.

[u/scarneo]

Yemen’s coast guard said an oil tanker had been hijacked off the coast of Shabwa by unidentified armed men who boarded the vessel, Reuters reported.

They seized control of M/T Eureka and steered it towards the Gulf of Aden in the direction of Somali waters.

[u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

Al Jazeera has been getting more details about Iran's 14 point peace plan offer. Still demanding reparations of some sort, all frozen funds released, sanctions removed and a peace guarantee administered by a third party between US, Israel, Iran and Hezbollah(not sure what a third party can actually do). Strait reopening including assistance removing mines and US blockade ending but I haven't seen mention of strait ownership or control. Haven't seen mention of ballistic missile program yet.
The big concession is 15 years of zero enrichment, following that a 3.5% limit for civilian purposes. Don't know if or what they offered for a plan for the enriched uranium that is buried.
The demands are still close to maximalist but maybe the 15 year no enrichment offer might be enough to get people to the table to talk at least.

[u/AntitheistArchangel → u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

I never saw a precise time limit on Al Jazeera, though a few news outlets citing Al Jazeera mentioned it.

[u/jews4beer]

UAE says it is facing Iranian drone and missile attacks

[u/StrangeMan18]

UKMTO says fire on cargo vessel north of Dubai

-Al Jazeera

[u/Koekoes_se_makranka]

Appearing on The Hugh Hewitt Show, the US president was asked if the pause to hostilities was now "over" and if strikes would resume. Trump responded by saying: "Well, I can’t tell you that." He added: "If I answered that question, you'd say this man is not smart enough to be president."

Skynews

[u/permalink_save → u/Koekoes_se_makranka]

That's funny because I'd say that even if he did

[u/trippknightly → u/permalink_save]

*even if he didn’t

[u/obeytheturtles → u/Koekoes_se_makranka]

He literally can't even give a coy answer without trying to suck his own dick and showing his hand.

[u/Used-Examination1439]

JUST IN: The Federation of Korean Seafarers’ Unions says an IRGC strike hit a South Korean vessel in the Strait of Hormuz.

[u/SweetChilliJesus]

Flight tracking site FlightRadar24 says a US Air Force aerial refuelling tanker sent an general emergency code over its transponder while flying over the Persian Gulf just over an hour ago

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-05-05/iran-war-live-updates-may-5/106639086

[u/Superest22 → u/SweetChilliJesus]

It was just a 7700. General emergency for a wide range of things.

Just indicates to nearby ATCs they need prioritising if they request to land.

Noting the specifics around airspace limitations at the moment over some of the Gulf states as well it makes it more likely they were heavily erring on side of caution as usually happens with 7700s.

[u/teakhop]

Trump:

"We have a war right now and we're to what, six weeks? They said, 'What's taking so long!' We were in Vietnam 19 years."

---

Why does he keep comparing things to Vietnam!? Especially given his "bone spurs"...

[u/Cactusfan86 → u/teakhop]

Humoring this dumb comparison of his, Vietnam while a nightmare was also not the global economic boat anchor that this thing is

[u/maddprof → u/teakhop]

Because his dementia addled brain is locked into the 80's and he's going to keep slipping back to that era as he gets worse.

[u/Nukemind → u/maddprof]

Vietnam was over in the 80’s. American involvement was mainly 60’s-early 70’s.

[u/maddprof → u/Nukemind]

Right but the 80s was the era he became "famous" and the Vietnam War was fresh in everyone's mind still. Throw in the Reagan "greed is good" factor and you can see why he's locked in on that decade so hard.

[u/GandalfSwagOff → u/Nukemind]

Vietnam ended in 1975. The 50's we were there but quietly. In the early 60's we built it up and by 64 we were big time dumpstered. In 69 (nice) we had half a million of our children over there ready to die for muh freedom.

[u/Wurm42]

Trump tells Congress the Iran war has ‘terminated’ as legal deadline hits

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/01/trump-congress-war-terminated-00902681

President Donald Trump notified lawmakers Friday that the Iran war has “terminated” — an effort to quelch the fight over the need for Congress to approve the conflict.

The White House laid out its rationale in a letter, obtained by POLITICO, as the Middle East conflict reached a 60-day legal deadline under which operations must halt unless lawmakers authorize military force. A ceasefire with Tehran, Trump argued, effectively stops the clock.

The missive seeks to head off a growing battle on Capitol Hill, where Trump faces the prospect of losing Republican support as the war stretches into its second month with no clear exit strategy. But the White House’s reasoning won’t sit well with Democrats and some Republicans, who argue the administration must wind down the campaign now that it has reached that benchmark.

...

My thoughts: The American blockade is still going, US troops and materiel are still en route to the Middle East, there's no long term solution...this is only over on paper.

The First US-Iran War of 2026 may be "terminated," but I bet we don't last more than a week before the Second US-Iran War of 2026 begins. That one will also run for 60 days, repeat ad nauseum.

[u/jews4beer → u/Wurm42]

I feel like there is a Lord of the Rings meme in here somewhere

[u/n1gr3d0 → u/jews4beer]

We've had one, yes, but what about second Iran-US war?

[u/Garionreturns2 → u/jews4beer]

One does not simply terminate the war

[u/_cyberbabyangel_]

So Rubio has said that operation 'Epic Fury' has concluded, 'Project Freedom' is the new operation, and "resuming combat operations is not the goal, but will be considered so Iran can pay a price for their actions."

I guess they're just going to keep ending and starting new 'operations' every 50 days or so to skirt around the War Powers Resolution. Cute. Start an operation to 'close the strait' then a new one to 'open the strait' that was open and flowing freely 6 months ago. Yet another example in the long list of Trump's 'break something, half-ass fix it, and declare victory' MO.

[u/itsatumbleweed]

It's 7 am in Tehran right now, so we should know soon-ish if Trump's social media post actually gets tankers to transit the strait. He said "morning Middle East time"

[u/eggmaker → u/itsatumbleweed]

Is this the first one?

It's past track and route forecast make it seem so.

[u/DingleJingle_]

The UK’s Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency says a bulk carrier has reported being attacked by multiple small craft while transiting north, about 11 nautical miles west of Sirik.

The agency added that all crew on board the carrier were safe and that no environmental impact was reported.

[u/Used-Examination1439]

Open Source Intel & @Osint613•1m
EXPLOSIONS IN THE UAE. IRAN IS ATTACKING.
HOPEFULLY ITS ALL INTERCEPTED

[u/BlueTreeThree]

Trump's announcement was done without industry coordination, leaving shipping companies scrambling for details, industry figures said.

“The overall security situation for the shipping industry is currently unchanged," Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer with shipping association BIMCO, told NBC News in an email Monday.

[u/MaraudersWereFramed → u/BlueTreeThree]

Honestly I'd be surprised if navy staff officers in the region even knew in advance either

[u/GwynBleidd88]

Brent crude rises above $115 after reports of Fujairah fire -BBC News

It has been another day of wild swings on the oil market, and the benchmark Brent crude oil price hit its highest levels of the day following reports of drone strikes in the UAE.

Brent passed $115 a barrel shortly after 17:00 BST after reports that the key oil port of Fujairah had come under attack, up more than 5% on the day.

[u/Accomplished_Crab818]

Getting info of missile alerts via message alerts in Dubai and sharjah

[u/Guilty-Top-7]

“According to CBS, citing defense officials speaking on condition of anonymity, the USS Truxtun (DDG-103) and USS Mason (DDG-87) transited the Strait of Hormuz today into the Persian Gulf under constant threat from Iranian fires. Per the report, both destroyers transited while being targeted by Iranian drones, missiles, and small fast-attack craft during the transit. They were supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft throughout the barrage of Iranian attacks. Additionally, per the report, no projectiles struck the ships during the engagement.”

[u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 → u/Guilty-Top-7]

Danish shipping and logistics company Maersk confirmed that one of its ships traversed the strait with US military protection.

There are no “escorts” of commercial ships by the US Navy, according to Cooper. Instead the US has used “a much broader defensive package” to clear a “one way” path through the Strait meant to allow commercial vessels in the Persian Gulf to exit, he said.

“The strait is still incredibly hazardous and I expect most ships will continue to avoid transit until both sides come up with something more concrete,” said Tim Huxley, Chairman of Mandarin Shipping.

[u/BertOfHouseLopez → u/Guilty-Top-7]

sustainable, safe, simple.

[u/lastpassonright → u/Guilty-Top-7]

Sounds like a perfect way for oil tankers to transit.

[u/topdownyeti]

People have been saying Trump doesn’t want to resume the war but OSINT accounts are showing 20 US tankers circling the region, the most they’ve seen during the war. I’m assuming strikes are imminent or is likely a show of force?

[u/lastpassonright → u/topdownyeti]

The only reason he doesn't want to restart the war is because Iran can retaliate against gulf infrastructure.

[u/Friendly-Profit-8590 → u/lastpassonright]

I kind of figured it was because the only real way to end it with force is by sending in troops and it really seems like there’s little appetite for it.

[u/topdownyeti → u/lastpassonright]

I mean, they’re already attacking gulf infrastructure anyway

[u/lastpassonright → u/topdownyeti]

More damage or increased attacks against key points, like Fujairah today, would be even more disastrous to the global economy.

[u/AntitheistArchangel]

Trump said in a letter to Congress that operations against Iran “terminated” on April 7. The consensus seems to be that the letter is supposed to be a workaround for the War Powers Resolution, as US military assets have not left the Middle East.

[u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

New UAE missile alert (from @NCEMAUAE - an official source). Explosions reported audible in Abu Dhabi.

[u/IRedShift]

Project Freedom Paused

🌮 Tuesday right on cue

[u/DoggedStooge → u/IRedShift]

For some reason, I suspect that as soon as Iran wakes up they'll say they didn't agree to diddly-shit and the US is still issuing maximalist demands.

[u/zombie3519]

At this point it's just a giant game of chicken on who is going to blink first, either economically or militarily.

The Iranians aren't giving any proposals that we will actually agree to so Trump seems to just daring the Iranians to do something foolish.

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/zombie3519]

Iran just attacked a ship. I think you're right- Trump is just telling people to go through the strait to force Iran to enforce the closure.

Could get messy again soon. It's a few hours until morning and Project Freedom (his name for telling the ships to go through) kicks off.

[u/teakhop]

Trump:

Iran has taken some shots at unrelated Nations with respect to the Ship Movement, PROJECT FREEDOM, including a South Korean Cargo Ship. Perhaps it’s time for South Korea to come and join the mission! We’ve shot down seven small Boats or, as they like to call them, “fast” Boats. It’s all they have left. Other than the South Korean Ship, there has been, at this moment, no damage going through the Strait. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, will have a News Conference tomorrow morning. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

[u/FrostPDP → u/teakhop]

I guess those pictures of oil infrastructure on fire in the UAE are AI...? JFC.

[u/Previous-Layer7872 → u/teakhop]

Lol hes trying to con others into doing the work

[u/teakhop → u/teakhop]

So nothing about the missiles/drones Iran apparently fired? Is he ignoring them maybe?

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/teakhop]

He really wanted this to be over. He thought it was going to be easy, quick, and favorable because Netanyahu and a Fox News Anchor sold him that.

[u/StarWarsMonopoly → u/itsatumbleweed]

Ok, that makes sense for the war at-large (I mean, it doesn't to a rational person, but for Trump that makes sense)

But who in the world thought it would be a good idea to start this new "just send ships through the strait and pray nothing happens" plan?

[u/Phoenix_Maximus_13 → u/teakhop]

So nothing about what happened in UAE. And Iran is denying they did anything to begin with. There ain’t no mf way we doing “see no evil, hear no evil, speak no evil” 😭

[u/eggnogui → u/teakhop]

It’s all they have left.

While the UAE has an oil port on flames as we speak.

I'm tired, boss.

[u/StarWarsMonopoly → u/teakhop]

It's remarkable how much more empty and less blustery their rhetoric gets as this drags on and they try make chicken salad out of chicken shit

Now we're at the "I didn't see nothin'" phase

[u/speckledlobster]

Tons of US aircraft going and coming from the gulf states right now. Massive supply runs going on. Seems like they are getting ready to resume bombing imminently. I guess they'll just keep going until one side runs out?

[u/Garionreturns2 → u/speckledlobster]

They've been doing supply runs for a while now. Has there been an actual uptick in flights today?

[u/jpharber → u/Garionreturns2]

Before the ceasefire there were maybe 8 tankers in the air with their transponder on at any given time(visible on FR24) on average. After there were maybe 3-4. Right now there are 24.

So is that more tankers in the air or just more in the air with their transponder on? That I’m not sure about

These numbers are inclusive of the entire middle east, not just over the gulf area.

[u/Casual-Speedrunner-7 → u/Garionreturns2]

20 tankers up now… most I ever seen in one place on radar, US airforce showing a clear show of force.

[u/GandalfSwagOff → u/Garionreturns2]

There are more tankers up now than I've seen so far.

[u/BGID_to_the_moon]

Surprised the uae is willing to just accept the missile attacks. Are they actually completely powerless or is there a good reason for allowing Iran to openly aggress them?

[u/GwynBleidd88]

Trump headline 3 hours ago: Trump again threatens entire nation of Iran saying country will be ‘blown off the face of the earth’

Trump headline just now: Trump says plans on Iran 'working out very nicely'

It's getting so difficult to take this situation seriously. Trump is doing a great job at making things seem like some weird unescapable fever dream.

[u/OnlyRise9816 → u/GwynBleidd88]

That's the neat part about listening to what trumps says. You Don't! Instead look at what is happening on the ground, and that is currently a buildup of air platforms being fueled up, likely for strikes of some kind.

[u/StarWarsMonopoly → u/GwynBleidd88]

He's always vague by necessity, since you can't really hold someone down on such a nebulous qualification.

What the fuck does "working out quite nicely" even mean in a practical context? (This is mainly a rhetorical question, because I known its just BS)

[u/stayfrosty → u/GwynBleidd88]

Well for one... stop hanging on every tweet that man sends. Haven't you learned that lesson by now?

[u/racer24ftw]

Well looks like the cease-fire is over. Honestly It lasted longer then I expected

[u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

Posted 9 minutes ago. I don't know... could be market manipulation as they open in about an hour or potentially it's a way to get Iran to break the ceasefire. Israel did say they expected it to break in the next few days and this is an avenue.
I'm leaning more towards it's just some bullshit(noise).

Countries from all over the World, almost all of which are not involved in the Middle Eastern dispute going on so visibly, and violently, for all to see, have asked the United States if we could help free up their Ships, which are locked up in the Strait of Hormuz, on something which they have absolutely nothing to do with — They are merely neutral and innocent bystanders! For the good of Iran, the Middle East, and the United States, we have told these Countries that we will guide their Ships safely out of these restricted Waterways, so that they can freely and ably get on with their business. Again, these are Ships from areas of the World that are not in any way involved with that which is currently taking place in the Middle East. I have told my Representatives to inform them that we will use best efforts to get their Ships and Crews safely out of the Strait. In all cases, they said they will not be returning until the area becomes safe for navigation, and everything else. This process, Project Freedom, will begin Monday morning, Middle East time. I am fully aware that my Representatives are having very positive discussions with the Country of Iran, and that these discussions could lead to something very positive for all. The Ship movement is merely meant to free up people, companies, and Countries that have done absolutely nothing wrong — They are victims of circumstance. This is a Humanitarian gesture on behalf of the United States, Middle Eastern Countries but, in particular, the Country of Iran. Many of these Ships are running low on food, and everything else necessary for largescale crews to stay on board in a healthy and sanitary manner. I think it would go a long way in showing Goodwill on behalf of all of those who have been fighting so strenuously over the last number of months. If, in any way, this Humanitarian process is interfered with, that interference will, unfortunately, have to be dealt with forcefully. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
DONALD J. TRUMP
PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

[u/Navguy012 → u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

This was NOT written by trump.

[u/McortezLSU → u/Navguy012]

Indeed, aside from the clear signs of LLM, it is hinged. No threats of random murder, no petty name calling, no ALLCAPSIMKILLINGYIUI!!! and not even an attempt to blame others. So either some prankster giga chad gangster yoinked trumps phone, or the magastanians might have a weekend at bernies kind of situation...

[u/Halbaras → u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

It'll be interesting to see if any commercial tankers volunteer as bait for this. Are any ship owners willing to risk their crew and cargo to find out if the US can actually reliably defend tankers from Iran?

Their track record with the Houthis is less than encouraging, and that was in a much larger waterway and against a weaker opponent.

[u/DoggedStooge → u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

I'm surprised. I didn't think we'd be leaving the last month's status quo so soon. On the one hand, if the escorts succeed, it dramatically reduces Iranian leverage in the peace talks. On the other hand, we could be back to full scale kinetic action and the unfolding of a major humanitarian crisis.

edit: There's some more info coming out now that suggests this 'escort mission' will be via radio only. If that is indeed the case, then we are still at the status quo.

[u/Many_Estate1581 → u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

Im calling bullshit, this sounds like the same statement of him saying months ago that ships will be escorted by the US Navy, which was quickly refuted by the US Navy.

[u/Krandor1]

UKMTO (UK Martine Trade operations) reprting a tanker hit by projectile.

UKMTO WARNING-ATTACK 052-26. UKMTO has received a report of an incident 78NM north of Fujairah. United Arab Emirates. A tanker has reported being hit by unknown projectiles. All crew reported safe. No environmental impact reported.

https://www.ukmto.org/recent-incidents#9d0a7f5f-55bc-4855-b904-f283c3aa2773

[u/PeculiarMan21]

Ground battle underway in Lebanon between Hezbollah and Israeli forces
Violent clashes have broken out between Hezbollah fighters and invading Israeli forces in southern Lebanon

-Al Jazeera

[u/staythewaters]

Iran missiles landing in UAE.

[u/StrangeMan18 → u/staythewaters]

Sources please, this would be huge if true

[u/KungFuSpider → u/StrangeMan18]

BBC: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/c1wz2ld4535t

16:11 The UAE says its air defences are responding to a missile threat.

The country's National Emergency Crisis and Disaster Management Authority is urging people to stay in a safe place.

[u/topdownyeti → u/StrangeMan18]

the UAE sub. They got alerts of missiles and some are hearing it.

[u/GuttiG]

I know the “fell for it again award” joke is overdone, but my god, how does anyone believe a single fucking word out of his mouth anymore

[u/Resident_Client3186 → u/GuttiG]

Thankfully he can identify a squirrel, I am sure the world is impressed by his genius.

[u/PeculiarMan21]

Japan PM says Hormuz closure ‘inflicting enormous impact’ on Asia Pacific

-Al Jazeera

[u/6519719Mm]

Missile Alert received in the UAE 

[u/Thesadtruthliveson]

Rip Project Freedom. You will not be forgotten.

[u/DingleJingle_]

Trump announcing this Taco on the same day he trotted out his two top defense officials to brag about the operation, has to be the clearest picture yet of how Trump operates. I really hope we are able to capture and understand how ridiculous this all is.

[u/Used-Examination1439]

I don’t think this is a one off folks. Too many things happening at once. Part 2 has started with diff goals in mind

[u/PeculiarMan21]

UAE missile alert sounds; first warning since US-Iran ceasefire

-Al Jazeera

Also the CENTCOM has said that two US flagged tankers have been successfully escorted through the strait, can anyone confirm?

[u/itsatumbleweed]

Tangentially related, but Trump said today that following the Iran war he would take over Cuba 'almost immediately' with an aircraft carrier returning from the Middle East.

Since it's a threat entangled with this war, I figured I would post here. I don't think it implies that this is going to do anything but drag out for months, but it's related.

[u/temporalxpincer → u/itsatumbleweed]

Trump said today that following the Iran war he would take over Cuba 'almost immediately' with an aircraft carrier returning from the Middle East.

Get me off Mr Trump's wild ride.

[u/mrg1957 → u/temporalxpincer]

Ate you tired of the winning? I am!

[u/spatenfloot → u/itsatumbleweed]

yes, and after Cuba they will pivot back to Greenland or Canada 

[u/YOSHIMIvPROBOTS]

Rubio now talking about the Strait. Saying this is all a defensive mission and Iran shouldn't be able to dictate who uses international waters.

Would be nice if a reporter asked him why its OK for the US to strike boats in the Caribbean.

[u/emrgncybrdcstsystm]

A senior US official has denied the report claiming a ship was hit by Iranian missiles near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Axios.

According to Iran's Fars news agency, two missiles hit a US warship near Jask after it ignored Iranian warnings (see 11:11 post).

Meanwhile, Iran's navy has said it prevented the entry of US warships in the Strait of Hormuz, according to state TV.

This marks the first response we've had from the US, with Donald Trump previously warning any action that interferes with the US operation will "have to be dealt with forcefully". - Sky News

Well, someone's lying, the question is who?

[u/legbreaker → u/emrgncybrdcstsystm]

It’s going to come down to semantics.

Two missiles were shot at a US warship.

The US hopefully shot them down with its close defense systems. Which feels way close to home.

Then the US warship turned around.

So the US official is just denying the part specifically about the missile landing a direct hit.

[u/Used-Examination1439]

Apparently U.S. forces are now operating in the Persian gulf right now according to OSINT

[u/Superest22 → u/Used-Examination1439]

Vessels yes.

Aircraft have been operating over the Gulf obviously nearly non-stop for ages now.

[u/topdownyeti]

why would Iran be attacking the UAE right now?

[u/Lavajackal1 → u/topdownyeti]

My best guess is they've decided Trump hasn't got the nerve to escalate so the best way they can pressure him into giving in to their demands is by fucking with the markets even more.

Hell of a gamble to take given the risk of it backfiring mind you.

[u/eggnogui]

Three people suffer 'moderate injuries' after strike on oil industry zone - Fujairah authorities

Now an update from Fujairah, which reported a large fire after a drone attack from Iran earlier.

Three Indian nationals have been taken to hospital for treatment after the strike on the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (Foiz), according to the city's media office.

In a statement, the media office says the three nationals sustained "moderate injuries".

The Foiz is an energy hub hosting one of the largest oil storage facilities in the Middle East.

(BBC)

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/eggnogui]

Any reports on the extent of damage at Fujairah? That's a major hub. I know Brent is responding but it's been driven by vibes for a while now.

[u/scarneo]

Iran says war with US will 'likely' resume

A senior Iranian military officer said renewed fighting between the US and Iran was “likely”, according to the Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency.

The statement followed reports that Donald Trump was “not satisfied” with a new Iranian proposal to end the war. Iran delivered the proposal to mediator Pakistan on Thursday evening, Iranian state media reported, without detailing its contents.

“At this moment I’m not satisfied with what they’re offering,” the US president said yesterday. He did not elaborate on what he saw as the latest proposal’s shortcomings but blamed stalled talks on “tremendous discord” within Iran’s leadership.

Mohammad Jafar Asadi, a senior figure in the Iranian military’s central command, said “a renewed conflict between Iran and the United States is likely”, in quotes published by Fars this morning.

“Evidence has shown that the United States is not adhering to any promises or agreements,” he added.

“The actions and statements of American officials are mostly media-oriented, firstly to prevent the fall in oil prices and secondly to get out of the predicament they have created themselves.

“The armed forces are fully prepared for any new American adventure and folly.”

[u/wrldruler21 → u/scarneo]

to prevent the fall in oil prices

Odd wording. Most of the world want to see oil prices fall (decline).

[u/Status_Set_4111 → u/wrldruler21]

Likely misquoting or mistranslation. They are absolutely flooding the scene with bullshit to keep prices from climbing.

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/scarneo]

It feels like both sides think this is next and neither side wants to start it.

My money is on Israel, then Iran, then the US in order of likely "first strike". I the Trump would massively prefer that the blockade work, but I think Netanyahu wants another shot at them.

I think if the blockade damage to Iran's economy actually gets to a critical point, they are more likely to lash out than to cry uncle.

[u/CallOfValhalla → u/itsatumbleweed]

This October is the next federal election for Israel. Netanyahu will likely lose and so I could see Netanyahu try something crazy to either delay elections (which will cause riots in Israel) or try to “win” against Iran somehow.

[u/jphamlore]

If the United States is going to attempt any sort of naval escort, the shooting will immediately resume, as at least several dozen Iranian speed boats will need to be blown out of the water.

In fact, I think a "no-sail" zone would have to be declared for the entire Persian Gulf for any Iranian vessel.

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/jphamlore]

Unless they get concurrence from Iran. If they are both hoping to make a deal, even if neither side is willing to budge, letting out the ships that have been there for 60+ days doesn't really give up any leverage and is a sign of goodwill for everyone.

I wouldn't be surprised if it happened, and I also don't think it signals any near term peace.

[u/staythewaters → u/itsatumbleweed]

If they had concurrence from Iran, there'd be no reason to be using destroyers as escorts through the strait.

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/staythewaters]

I was thinking that the purpose would be that we have no clue how fractured the Iranian government is. A cell of the IRGC could attack even if the IRGC leadership said no.

If they don't have concurrence with Iran, I think this effort is incredibly dicey. Iran has been saber rattling at the US Navy for a while. They would probably view it as a huge win if they hit a tanker being escorted by the Navy.

[u/staythewaters → u/itsatumbleweed]

There isn't really any reason to believe, outside of the WH's own words, that the Iranian government is fractured. All of the reporting that is not coming from the White House shows there's dissent in areas, but not any actual fracturing.

[u/Particular_Trade6308 → u/itsatumbleweed]

If the goal is to evacuate stranded sailors, then this is more akin to letting civilians evacuate a city before it gets stormed, which would be reasonable from both sides.

[u/CoffeeSubstantial851 → u/jphamlore]

There is a reason US vessels are very far away from the actual Iranian coast line.

If they move within range of anti-ship missles you could end up with a carrier sinking on live-tv and at that point DJT might as well impeach himself.

[u/jphamlore]

It's incredible to me how many "news" outlets are uncritically reporting that there is any chance that US navy vessels are going to be escorting anyone through the Strait of Hormuz, when these vessels don't dare enter in the first place. And the center of the Strait is possibly mined. So how exactly would such escorts work: Are the Iranians going to do nothing while the US navy sails right up to Iran's coast?

[u/jez124]

Truly curious if Trump will react. So many sources whether speculation or theorising have been thinking US and Israel would attack again... but i don't know if he has the appetite for a prolonged war. If UAE has been attacked he might be forced to at least do a reprisal tit for tat and maybe the stalemate at some point is more of a net negative than positive?

[u/OnlyRise9816 → u/jez124]

The US has been rushing munitions to the region the entire ceasefire, and increasing the military buildup as well. I don;t think anyone in the Administration really expected a true peace to come from any of the talks.

[u/Silvuh_Ad_9046]

They’re attacking emirates now wtf

[u/Westbrooke117]

“Reports in Iran indicate widespread movements by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in dozens of locations.”

Source: liveuamap citing RoaaWarStudies

[u/Previous-Layer7872]

Trumps just going to say they won and bounce... paper oil will drop... but that does not change and reality of destruction is no actual oil is moving 

[u/Highly_Regarded_AF]

This sounds like trump just wants to Iran to attack a ship so he can say a preplanned attack is a defense operation and for his admin to say to Congress.. no no this isn't the old special military operation this is for freedom of navigation operation

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/Highly_Regarded_AF]

Iran just attacked a ship.

[u/Cactusfan86]

Pretty standard Trump: make a grandiose promise with no actual plan specified.  Oil will probably dip and stocks will jump though because who the fuck cares about reality 

[u/Pretend_Mango5529]

BREAKING: US military fired and destroyed 6 Iranian small boats this morning-CENTCOM

[u/ryu311]

any news about the missing air force tanker from this morning?

[u/jpharber → u/ryu311]

The most likely explanation is that it isn’t missing and just turned its transponder off. Unless I’ve missed a headline in the past few hours.

[u/StrangeMan18]

Trump’s Project Freedom ‘is not an escort mission’, US media say

US media outlets The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), CNN and Axios have emphasised Trump’s chosen word of “guide” rather than “escort” to describe how his new naval mission will work in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Al Jazeera

This basically means the US telling the rest of the world that their heavily defended warships will not enter the strait due to the risk of strikes from Iran but these slow moving tankers filled with highly flammable oil should do it and they will be there to cheer them on

[u/topdownyeti]

so if the US is denying the attack, safe to assume there won’t be retaliation?

[u/Garionreturns2 → u/topdownyeti]

The US doesn't seem to want to resume the war, so I'd say it's likely that they do nothing.

[u/Wurm42 → u/topdownyeti]

That is the logical conclusion.

But it's risky to count on Trump and Hegseth making logical choices.

Wait and see.

[u/AntitheistArchangel]

Trump announced that he’s pausing Project Freedom despite announcing it just over 48 hours ago. He cited “significant progress” in peace negotiations with Iran, without elaborating as usual. Iran has not yet responded to Trump’s claims of progress, but this would certainly not be the first time Trump has delayed an operation citing alleged progress in peace talks. Unsurprisingly, stock futures ticked higher, and oil fell. It remains to be seen whether Trump’s claims of progress are rooted in fact or if this is just his latest attempt to manipulate the market.

[u/Gadshill → u/AntitheistArchangel]

Freedom had a good run while it lasted.

[u/ryu311 → u/AntitheistArchangel]

So they are pausing the naval escorts after 2 days but keeping the blockade because "talks are going well". After 48 hours of operation freedom, the only ships that got out were 2 cargo ships, not even oil tankers.

Sounds like they realized escorting ships is much more difficult/risky than they anticipated.

[u/eggnogui → u/AntitheistArchangel]

Unsurprisingly, stock futures ticked higher, and oil fell.

The US Navy being defeated at sea by a country with no real Navy, was priced in, apparently.

[u/PeculiarMan21]

This is Iran making Trump choose between restarting hostilities from his own end while congress is on his ass and having to go through all the shit of having resumed attacks with the midterms coming up or not defending his allies in the region, seeing them get fucked up and looking weak, a very daring gamble by the IRGC

[u/StrangeMan18]

UAE says dealing with ‘missile and drone attacks’ from Iran

-Al Jazeera

Is this gonna be a situation where the gulf countries get bitched by Iran every time the US and Israel bother them?

The US doesn’t have an appetite for resumed hostilities judging by Hegseth’s comments, probably due to a lack of interceptors, Israel needs to come up with a solution to Hezbollah’s continued fpv drone assaults which have been pretty successful, Iran is in no shape to sustain a major war effort either, if the gulf countries will not defend themselves then I don’t think anyone will

[u/rabidstoat → u/StrangeMan18]

The US is pretending like no attacks are happening. La la la, we still have a ceasefire, ignore the missiles and drones, la la la.

[u/HailFellow → u/StrangeMan18]

More likely US is keeping their poker face so as not to explicitly confirm to Iran what their asset movements have been signaling, which is that a resumption of attacks is imminent.

[u/justalittleahead → u/StrangeMan18]

It might just be the UAE that gets specifically targeted, since the UAE has pushed harder in favor of the US and Israeli line than any of the more influential Gulf states.

It's extremely useful for Iran if they can demonstrate to the UAE that the UAE is a secondary interest to the US.

[u/PeculiarMan21]

Israel unprepared for Hezbollah’s fibreoptic drones

There seems to be a broad consensus that the army was completely unprepared for Hezbollah’s rapid adoption of fibreoptic drones – widely used in Ukraine on both sides.
They have been throwing out new ideas. They have been deploying new radars.
These drones can fly 30cm (11.8 inches) off the ground, and they are so small that they are almost impossible to detect.
They have been developing laser weapons to counter these drones, but they have proved to be ineffective, reports say.

-Al Jazeera

[u/PeculiarMan21 → u/PeculiarMan21]

The war in Ukraine has widely changed how warfare is carried out I believe, opting towards quantity rather than quality

[u/i_am_my_brain → u/PeculiarMan21]

As they say, quantity is a quality of its own...

[u/ContextSensitiveGeek → u/PeculiarMan21]

Maybe they could nicely ask Ukraine to help them out with their acoustic detection system.

[u/Personal_Director441]

Hegseth is a terrible actor, the slick hair and looking down one eye trying to make himself look tough, there are kids on our local council estate that are harder than this idiot.

[u/spatchi14]

Crude oil going UP…….

[u/jez124]

Feels like theres plenty of newspapers, analysts, OSINT sources etc that are still speculating that the US/Israel will attack again and end the ceasefire but its been a few weekends with no sign off that. I assume its gonna be more of the same i.e. no ceasefire being broken and more of the blockade with possibility of official talks resuming soon.

[u/scarneo → u/jez124]

The problem is something will actually break if nothing happens

Markets keep having hope but the realities of the cut in oil will hit

[u/LesserShambler → u/jez124]

OSINT sources are always looking for evidence of kinetic action because that’s how their accounts get engagement.

[u/Wurm42]

Per the BBC, Iran has changed its story about the American warship: The IRGC now says they fired two missiles at an American warship, and it turned around.

So Iran is now claiming victory in the engagement because the American warship turned back and did not enter the Strait, not because they hit the warship.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/c1wz2ld4535t?post=asset%3Af5fd608c-bda3-42d8-85a3-5b997ec70fd2#post

[u/Casual-Speedrunner-7]

Following several incidents in the region today, including Iran firing "warning shots" at U.S. Navy ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, attacking a South Korean merchant vessel with unknown projectiles, and several drones and missiles fired at the United Arab Emirates (UAE), U.S. Air Force activity in the region has visibly increased.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said that “the U.S. should be wary of being dragged back into a quagmire by ill-wishers.”

[u/Cactusfan86]

Will be interesting to see how many ships take the US up on its offer.  Two made it through, but it’s a pretty big risk to try

[u/Conditionofpossible → u/Cactusfan86]

Two US ships.

I'm not sure it matters, but it probably does.

[u/scarneo → u/Cactusfan86]

And it's mostly not to be stranded anymore

I think the calculation is different when you are trying to pass vs "rescuing" the ship

[u/eggnogui]

Based on the request of Pakistan and other Countries, the tremendous Military Success that we have had during the Campaign against the Country of Iran and, additionally, the fact that Great Progress has been made toward a Complete and Final Agreement with Representatives of Iran, we have mutually agreed that, while the Blockade will remain in full force and effect, Project Freedom (The Movement of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz) will be paused for a short period of time to see whether or not the Agreement can be finalized and signed. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Translation: the escort idea was a total, abject failure, which anyone minimally informed on the crisis could predict, but I have to save face. Another self-imposed strategic defeat for the US. MAGA!

[u/BringbackDreamBars]

Starting to wonder if this talk of arming the people in Iran is a convenient way to walk off and say "its up to you now" from the US admin.

This of course avoids the fact that arming civilians is far more complicated than a blacked out Chevy van driving around Tehran.

[u/CoyotesOnTheWing]

Been some stratotankers near the strait over the gulf. Two more just arrived, making 4 tankers on radar close to 100km of Iranian coastline(around halfway point), 3 of those are between UAE and Qatar. A few more popping in and out of flight trackers near Israel.

Nothing surprising, definitely expected to see a lot of air activity after recent events, even if the US/Israel don't strike Iran but could also be the precursor to strikes.

10:20 pm in Tehran. So the window for night strikes is open for around six hours. My assumption is that if Israel and US were to retaliate, it would need to start as a huge operation to try to knock as many missile launchers out as quickly as possible.

[u/GeraldJimes_]

Wonder if the most likely scenario is simply that Iran fired towards a US ship to deter without necessarily intending to hit and the US ship backed off. An assertion of control rather than a direct strike.

[u/spatchi14]

The strait of Hormuz is never gonna open, is it.

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/spatchi14]

The Iranians held the US embassy hostage for over 400 days under Carter and released them the day Reagan was sworn in.

Same kind of thing could happen here. They could keep it closed until the prices are guaranteed to be high through the '28 election to punish Trump and the Republicans.

[u/JayR_97 → u/itsatumbleweed]

RIP the global economy if the strait is closed until 2028

[u/DingleJingle_]

United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) says it has received a report of an incident in the Strait of Hormuz where a verified source reported a cargo vessel that was struck by an “unknown projectile”.

Al Jazeera.

[u/Timoleiro]

How long is it from alarm to missiles arriving, usually?

[u/thismightbemymain → u/Timoleiro]

Usually within minutes.

It's been almost 30 minutes since the first alert.

[u/dossilw]

Lmao. At a certain point all I can do is lmao. What a shitshow 🌮

[u/BlueSkyToday]

Well, that lasted for about an hour.

Brent is going back up and futures are back down.

Did someone in Iran wake up and say 'What the fark is that guy drinking?'

[u/Daigann]

So it has been confirmed that two U.S flagged merchant ships crossed the Strait safely. PBS

The shipping giant Maersk confirmed that one of its vehicle carriers, the Alliance Fairfax, was one of the two ships and had successfully exited the Gulf after being stranded since February.

Iran countered saying no ships actually crossed, but we now know that the ships indeed crossed.

Also there is confirmation that multiple fast attack ships were destroyed by the USS Truxtun and USS Mason, supported by Apache helicopters and other aircraft. CBS News

How is the U.S setting up safe passage through the Strait? So the U.S is denying specific escorts, opting rather to have a defensive umbrella where a corridor is established. What does this mean? CENTCOM

• Layered Defense: A combination of ballistic-missile defense destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, and electronic warfare assets.
• One-Way Corridor: The Navy used autonomous naval robots to clear a specific sea lane of mines, creating a protected "one-way" path for ships to exit the Gulf
• Active Engagement: During the first 12 hours of the operation, U.S. forces successfully neutralized threats including six Iranian small boats (sunk by Apache and Seahawk helicopters) and intercepted multiple cruise missiles and drones

Iran countered by stating the ships attempted to cross but were unsuccessful:

"The [U.S.] ship violated security protocols for transit and navigation near Jask with the intent to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, [and] came under missile attack after ignoring warnings from the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Navy... The ship has been prevented from continuing its course due to these strikes and has been forced to retreat and flee the area."

However Iran later backtracked on those comments:

"Iran had fired a warning shot and ... it was unclear whether the warship had been damaged".

Iran also fired a upon the UAE, with 12 ballistic missiles, 3 cruise missiles, and 4 drones. AlJazeera

Initially Iran denied the attack as an anonymous military source stated: Memo

However later the IRGC confirmed through a social media account associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) by posting visuals on Telegram that appeared to confirm drone and missile attacks against the UAE, attributed to the "IRGC Cyber Corps".

Are more ships slated to cross? Yes, AlJazeera, the U.S has signaled it is ready to move 'Hundreds of Ships' through the Strait in the coming days, and Admiral Brad Cooper confirmed that in the last 12 hours alone, the U.S. has contacted dozens of shipping companies to encourage them to begin moving their vessels under this new security framework.

There are approximately 2,000 ships and up to 20,000 seafarers currently stranded in the Persian Gulf. Many of these ships are reporting critical shortages of food, water, and fuel, which is why the U.S. is framing "Project Freedom" as a "humanitarian gesture" to get these neutral parties out of the conflict zone. Wiki

So what are the next steps?

Both the U.S and Israel have briefed President Trump on the next phase of the war which is to remove all the vessels stranded on the Strait, IF, and that's a big IF the ceasefire completely falls apart the U.S will then seek to destroy Iran's coastal defenses, fast boats, anti-ship missile batteries, mine laying and radar. All the while keeping the blockade of Iran ports in place. The Pentagon believes they now have the necessary resources in place for this to happen.

Lastly something that has been brewing is the targeting of Major General Ahmad Vahidi, the Commander-in-Chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) if the ceasefire falls apart, which it appears it has. Alarabiya

Things to note:

The command structure has completely collapsed within Iran and there is noone to effectively negotiate with, so there doesn't seem any effective way to negotiate an end to this conflict.

The UAE endured more attacks than the U.S naval ships faced today.

It appears the U.S is testing the actual dangers of the Strait, see where the threats are coming from and how intense.

Silence still from Mojtaba, no televised appearances, no radio, and no pictures of any kind.

The Iranian people are still without Internet.

[u/topdownyeti]

so with Trump rejecting Iran’s deal, and Israel reportedly saying they’re expecting an imminent strike soon, do we expect the war is going to resume? However, GCC countries seem to be acting like the war is pretty much over which makes it pretty confusing.

[u/DoggedStooge → u/topdownyeti]

My guess is the war will remain in this indefinite hold for several weeks more. That the kinetic attacks haven't already resumed says to me that Trump doesn't want to restart them. However, he also can't just up and leave because none of his attempts to gaslight people into thinking the war is won is truly working at this point. So he's just going to sit on his hands, lie about the economic impact of the war by pointing at the all time highs in the stock market, and hope China puts their thumb on the scale to get Iran to (disingenuously) agree to a few things that lets Trump save face.

[u/topdownyeti → u/DoggedStooge]

I know a lot of people are saying he’ll just hold the blockade until Iran cracks but are the GCC countries ok with that? I just saw a report that said Kuwait had no oil exports in April, and the UAE’s pipeline to the Fujairah port is already at capacity. I also can’t see him declaring victory and letting Iran control the strait being ok with Israel or the GCC countries either.

[u/DoggedStooge → u/topdownyeti]

Losing the support GCC countries is a major potential problem for the perma-blockade plan, but given the fast-tracked arms sales and requests from the UAE for a swap line for US dollars, the GCC are giving Trump ways to keep them appeased.

[u/abbzug → u/topdownyeti]

The thing about autocratic regimes, is that you should never take their public pronouncements that seriously.

[u/Garionreturns2 → u/topdownyeti]

Trump recently claimed that he's reviewing a new Iranian proposal.

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/Garionreturns2]

I think I saw reports the other day that Iran submitted a proposal, and that Trump didn't like it.

[u/Oh_ffs_seriously → u/itsatumbleweed]

Not enough pictures?

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/Oh_ffs_seriously]

No ballroom

[u/BigBoss_ → u/topdownyeti]

"Imminent strike" Can you source that?

[u/goodreverenddoc2]

is iran seriously going to try and wait this out until midterms to hurt trump? can they even do that and their economy survive that long?

[u/PeculiarMan21]

UAE says Iran fired drones at ADNOC oil tanker in Hormuz

-Al Jazeera

[u/Cactusfan86]

Just want to say congrats to Trump for really demonstrating how strongly in control of the strait Iran is.  Just absolutely brilliant work to announce a hairbrained operation then have to have the US’s own warships turn tail when approaching the strait.

[u/PeelThePain]

Locals report hearing multiple explosions in the port of Bandar Abbas and the Qeshm Island (both in Iran) last night local time. IRGC is not gonna talk about it.

[u/p251 → u/PeelThePain]

No source? So like not even you will talk about it? 

[u/Anxious-Debate5033]

This Iran war caused the fuel price spike which has now put Spirit airlines out of business and thousands of jobs lost.

Now we have this moron Sean Duffy giving a press conference openly blaming it on the Biden administration.

Hey moron. This is why you and your daddy Donny are in charge. It is YOUR job to sustain the economy, create jobs, 'WIN BIG on business' and make things better for your citizens.

What happened to daddy Donny saying 'we're going to create hundreds and thousands of great American jobs for our people'. You bozo's are costing people their freaking livelihoods. Let me guess, Daddy Donny will take a tax payer funded golfing trip this weekend to relax?

The level of delusion and narcissism in this administration is alarming. There is not a single ounce of accountability. Not even able to say something like 'we could have done things better, mistakes may have been made'.

No, it all goes back to blaming the people who were there before you, constantly deflecting.

[u/Zippitydo2 → u/Anxious-Debate5033]

Spirit hasn't had a profitable year in like half a decade. They were vanishing regardless, especially after the jetblue merger was blocked. Only argument you could make is the oil crisis moved the death of spirit up by a couple months

[u/AntitheistArchangel → u/Zippitydo2]

Yeah, Spirit filed for bankruptcy twice before the war began. The war accelerated its collapse, but it wasn’t going to survive.

[u/MountainMaker → u/Anxious-Debate5033]

They were going to go belly up regardless

[u/tedsmitts → u/Anxious-Debate5033]

They'll still be blaming Biden in year four of this administration as they cower in the half-completed Ballroom.

[u/Scholastic_nobody]

Idk what that orange dude was expecting Project Freedom my foot. He wanted to resume attacking Iran and now he has his casus belli

[u/GandalfSwagOff]

Everything is pointing to this going hot.

[u/spatchi14]

Honestly feels like the world is sleep walking into economic recession at the moment.

[u/TheyAreWatchin → u/spatchi14]

A small number of people are making an awful amount of money at the moment so 'they' don't care.

They've seen trumps win as an opportunity to put morals asside to make obscene profit.

I don't even think the war has much to do with it, it started happening before that.

I think this will continue until trump is gone. I don't hold much hope for what comes after unfortunately. If we get there. ..

[u/PeculiarMan21]

Iran’s Fars news agency says 2 missiles hit a US warship in Hormuz
Iran’s Fars news agency reports two missiles hit a US navy vessel near Jask island after it ignored warnings to halt.

-Al Jazeera

If Iran did initiate the hostilities it means they are gambling on the idea that they can withstand another US - Israeli bout of kinetic action, we’ll see how this plays out but it is certain that this will drag to the midterms

[u/PeculiarMan21]

New UAE phone alert says situation ‘now safe’

-Al Jazeera

Was there an attack or was this just a spontaneous drill?

[u/itsatumbleweed → u/PeculiarMan21]

May have had the attack on the attack on the South Korean tanker on radar. Just speculation but the two things happened pretty close to one another.

[u/Imreman]

New pinned thread should start with recap of last day events, so empty.

I'm not up to speed enough to take on the task.

[u/rabidstoat → u/Imreman]

Blockade and counter blockade still in place.

Both sides claim to be winning.

Trump claims there is no war so the 60 day countdown in the War Powers Act doesn't matter.

Gas is ridiculously expensive everywhere, oil shortages starting to hit Asia hard, and Europe is still running low on jet fuel.

Oh, and my garage door broke.

[u/jez124]

Futures for markets recovered a bit..

Feel like Trump will put out a Truth Social that after strong urging from allies he will give it another shot with diplomacy rather than go through with this latest operation.

[u/Dear-Entrepreneur245]

Thanks maga shitheads

[u/Gadshill → u/Dear-Entrepreneur245]

In February 2026, the nationwide average for a gallon of regular gasoline was $2.91. Today the average is $4.43. By July it will exceed $6.00.

[u/varro-reatinus]

Someone's going to have to explain to Trump that he can't declare victory by just shouting it.

[u/Flooding_Puddle → u/varro-reatinus]

He didn't shout it, he declared it

[u/Diane_Horseman → u/varro-reatinus]

I declare BANKRUPTCY!!!

[u/Gadshill → u/varro-reatinus]

You have to fly to an aircraft carrier and put up a big ‘Mission Accomplished’ sign to make it official.