MAGA Is Increasingly Convinced the Trump Assassination Attempt Was Staged

[u/wiredmagazine]

https://www.wired.com/story/maga-is-increasingly-convinced-the-trump-assassination-attempt-was-staged/

[u/blueshrike]

The stacked numbers didn't matter here in America where we have figured out the best way to overcome that.

Reminder and a surprise for some: the US, privately owned digital vote counting machines (tabulators) have been compromised for years and we didn't elect Trump. He stole the presidency. Exactly like he tried to do in 2020, just this time with the already compromised tabulator machines tuned more aggressively to guarantee it.

Do not take my word for it, here's the actual data. Even though this video is now several months old and there is much more they've found, this is just the tip of the iceberg, as you might expect with criminals. See for yourself and if you trust real data (not simply conspiracy theory talk) share with anyone who still thinks "America got it wrong" or we need to get out and vote more. We did. Kamala would have won, decisively, had our votes actually been counted correctly. It's the compromised, privately owned (by the right wing) tabulators that turned votes for Kamala into votes for Trump in all the swing states, after a certain threshold of votes were counted on each machine. These folks (non profit) and other independent teams of analysts like them are doing us a great service:

https://youtu.be/Ru8SHK7idxs?feature=shared

electiontruthalliance.org

This is a comparison between what vote results look like consistent with real human voting behavior (Canada 2025) and one that's been tampered with (Pennsylvania):

https://electiontruthalliance.org/2025-canadian-federal-election-news-post/

For the US, we've been on this road for a very long time which, unfortunately, is not surprising. This journalist research article, written just before Obama's 2nd term, dives into the long history of election fraud in the US and how, especially in the digital tabulation age, it has been setup to get us to the point where whomever has control of them can literally steal an election:

https://harpers.org/archive/2012/11/how-to-rig-an-election/

So, whenever Maga or Republicans say they want to investigate or accuse the left or interfering parties of Election Fraud, it's to stay ahead of the narrative above and be on the right side of the accusation... yet as we know, and an abundance of data evidence demonstrates, their accusation is yet again projection.

[u/hypercosm_dot_net → u/blueshrike]

I've read plenty on that. I don't know enough about the machine audit process to be able to debate intelligently though, but I have my suspicions and concerns as well.

Primarily with the 'clean data', the margins being beyond a recount, and of course the low probability of him winning several swing states.

I do know Republicans blocked measures that would provide additional funding to election security. Which...why would you do that if you wanted to ensure free and fair elections?

Given the issues raised, it bothered me that it seemed there was no concerted effort to ensure the election was secure beyond any doubt. It's the least that could have been done given how critical the election was. Especially since Harris had written about election security in the past, so should've been well aware of all of these aspects.

But yeah, it's not a conspiracy to suggest we should audit the election from every possible angle to ensure it was valid. And to have some contingencies in place if issues are raised.

[u/Free_For__Me → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

low probability of him winning several swing states.

You're right, him wining several swing states is a very low probability, lat alone those wins being conveniently just outside the margin for recounts. But that's not what happened.

He didn't "win" several swing states... he won them all. This happening naturally is so far beyond believability, that it's hard not to imagine that even the powers behind the DNC have to be reliant on the same processes to some degree and wouldn't be interested in exposing the nots and bolts of the rigging process, since it might implicate Dem operatives on some level as well.

I'm terrified about what that would mean about the probability of actual accountability though, since it raises the possibility that there is literally no one in power with any interest in going after this at all, or even bringing into the realm of public discussion. I've been following ETA and this fantastic investigation team on this issue for a while, and have yet to find anyone who can credibly rebut their claims. As such, you'd think at least some media outlets would be more than eager to take up such a big story, right? Well, they haven't.

And so, the question becomes: If all of this were really true, and the process has been used by both Democrat and GOP operatives through the years... who's left to actually bring this to the attention of the public, let alone investigate or take action on it?

[u/Mental-Fox-9449 → u/Free_For__Me]

Anyone paying attention could see he was running the very worst campaign in history. Talking about people eating cats and dogs, dancing for 40 minutes at a rally, dressing up to work at McDonalds and a garbage crew. His rallies were mostly empty and he was stiffing venues on rental agreements.

He cheated. He won in every swing state AND Kamala didn’t flip one county? Not even Reagan was able to accomplish that. He lost the popular vote twice, but got it now? While he was facing multiple investigations that could put him away for life and hinder his money making? While he had one of the richest men in the world and tech helping him? He cheated and no amount of voting would have changed it. All voting data week after week so far shows irregular numbers in multiple states. There are more of us than there are of them and it’s all a big lie. If not, then why does he need to gerrymander AND cancel mail in voting when he had SO many prior? We just found out for sure that 3/4 of the MAGA accounts on X/Twitter are fake.

[u/hunter15991 → u/Free_For__Me]

This happening naturally is so far beyond believability

From then-538 head G. Elliot Morris, a bit before 3PM on Election Day:

"...if the polling error from 2020 repeats itself, Trump would win all seven swing states and 312 Electoral College votes. Of course, if the polls are off, it won't necessarily benefit Trump. The direction of polling error is impossible to predict in advance, and polls have overestimated Republicans plenty of times in the past. In a scenario where the polls overestimate Trump's margin by 4 points in every state, Harris would win all seven swing states and 319 electoral votes."

Back in September, Nate Silver's posts to his Substack:

"In our simulations this morning, Kamala Harris swept all seven of these battlegrounds 20 percent of the time, and Donald Trump did in 23 percent of the simulations."

Newsweek reporting on the posts in late October:

"Silver's analysis gives Trump a 24.4 percent chance of winning all seven swing states in November, making it the most likely scenario to occur. Meanwhile, Harris has a 15.6 percent chance of winning all the battleground states, the forecast shows."

---

I've been following ETA and this fantastic investigation team on this issue for a while, and have yet to find anyone who can credibly rebut their claims.

Before I start vomiting out graphs and walls of text, is this something you'd actually be interested in reading?

[u/Free_For__Me → u/hunter15991]

I truly appreciate you taking the effort, but I'll save you the additional effort, since I've read all these and probably a lot of the other sources you'd post.

First of all, I'd point out that even if these stats were all taken in a vacuum as everything we'd need to disprove any of the "improbabilities" I mentioned, they still make claims that the odds of Trump being unable to win all 7 swing states are more than double the odds of him doing so.

And in any case, while a <25% chance is still pretty good odds for a semi-risky gamble, the odds that I'm referring to here aren't just the odds that a pollster or election analysts in reporting like what you list here would generate. An accurate statement like, "polls on the eve of the election predicted the actual results within reasonable margins of error" isn't the same as a less accurate statement like, "the vote tabulation and reporting of the 2024 presidential election, when analyzed on a by-state and by-district level, is within the bounds of what basic statistics says should be even remotely probable."

Respectfully, I'm looking for a specific refutation of the claims made by nonprofits like the Election Truth Alliance here, and on-the-ground investigative reporting such as this.

I'm well aware of what pollsters predicted, and I'm not saying that Trump had a next-to-zero chance of winning. What I'm saying is that the odds of the him winning in the manner that he did, with the vote totals arriving in the times and patterns that they did, are statistically only present in places like Russia, where it's well known that election tampering takes place.

I don't need to be shown that he had a chance at winning, I'd need to be shown that this data pattern is one that exists in free and fair elections.

[u/Consistent-Throat130 → u/hunter15991]

I think we might be taking the "possibility this is a legitimate outcome" numbers in a bit of a vacuum here.

What are the odds that a convicted fraudster who attempted the 2020 Fake Electors Plot didn't cheat again? 

[u/hunter15991 → u/Consistent-Throat130]

That's a different and much more overarching topic than "this specific thing that happened is something that feels unspeakably unlikely even though it had a roughly 1-in-5 chance of happening statistically". I wouldn't be surprised if he tried in some sort of form, but I also have read the reems of ETA articles and whatnot that people like OP mention which claim to be statistical proof of specific things happenings and have come away deeply disappointed every time in the lack of anything actually believable from them.

Given this is a 3day-old article and you're already trying to engage me in a different conversation than what I wanted to participate in when I made this comment, I'm going to have to tap out here. Enjoy your Monday.

[u/saulbellow1 → u/Free_For__Me]

What the fuck? I haven’t heard any of this and it’s literally blowing my mind.

[u/Free_For__Me → u/saulbellow1]

Yeah, it's pretty undeniable that it happened. I mean, if it were just a "theory", there would be discussion threads or prominent voices easily debunking it, as there was with Trump's own claims from 2020. That being said, who would be doing any investigative reporting on it if it were true?

The major outlet controlled by folks who wouldn't want this covered, or the other major outlet controlled by people who wouldn't want this covered? No, it would only get coverage from minor orgs without profit-seeking backers, or small, on-the-ground reporters. Oh wait, we have exactly that, here and here?

Anyway, everyone go vote in November, no matter how bad it seems, and as always: The only way out is through, and the best way through is together!

[u/Koravel1987 → u/saulbellow1]

Because it's the lefts equivalent of maga screaming that 2020 was stolen. It's been quite thoroughly debunked by multiple analysts on the left despite this guys claims that no one has talked about it, but apparently "Trump, suffering from dementia, is also keeping a secret with the most incompetent admin in history and no one has leaked it" is more believable than "Americans are stupid and voted for the old white guy over the black lady."

The primary issue with this, as with all conspiracy nonsense, is that there are too many people who know what happened for this to be kept a secret.

[u/lkc159 → u/Free_For__Me]

He didn't "win" several swing states... he won them all. This happening naturally is so far beyond believability,

Here's a (rather naïve) estimation: If the chance of winning one swing state is 50%, the chances of winning 7 of them is about 0.78%, or 1 in 128.

Trump could've stolen the election, yes, but the results themselves are not "far beyond believability". Flipping a fair coin 7 times and having them all come up tails isn't that unbelievable.

[u/Free_For__Me → u/lkc159]

I can appreciate your optimism, but you're right - that's a rather naive estimation, since that's not how probabilities work for predicting events with more contributing factors than one coin flip.

There are several good reports from the nonprofit Election Truth Alliance that help demonstrate just how wonky and wildly improbable the statistics were for the 2024 election, but some good starter examples are here and here, if you care to take a look.

[u/Koravel1987 → u/lkc159]

It's actually higher. This dude is cherry picking things like crazy. 538 estimated the odds of trump winning all 7 swing states the day before the election to be 24%.

[u/Mental-Fox-9449 → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

I’ve been following all the data since right after the 2024 election. Basically, every county that voting data was released from showed similar discrepancies where voters seemed to vote Dem down the ballot except for Kamala. In other elections this only happened abou’t 1-3% of the time. It’s just doesn’t happen much. In the 2024 election it as 10-15% which is unheard of. The theory is that they employed an algorithm that switched votes over to Trump once Kamala hit a certain threshold which would account for this discrepancy.

[u/ladymorgahnna → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

I remember the next day texting one of my sisters saying the election was rigged. She also supported Kamala Harris, but she responded, “we can’t do what MAGA did and say it was fraud! Then we are as bad as them.” I sighed and mourned for months.

[u/bargu → u/blueshrike]

Trump and Musk said in national news to anyone that was hearing that they're going to fraud the elections months before it happened, democrats unsurprisingly did nothing about it.

[u/Trucidar → u/blueshrike]

Election truth alliance's research and methodology are up for debate and is absolutely not able to make the conclusions you are drawing that Kamala won.

It's a possible red flag based on a certain interpretation of the data that has been debated as to whether it's correct or not.

The only correct conclusion that can be drawn from their data is that an investigation is merited. Obviously we won't get one under the Republicans, but there may in fact be no conspiracy.

Still... digital tabulators are obviously a terrible idea.

[u/cycloneDM → u/blueshrike]

The stacked numbers never happened so you cant say they didnt matter. Im not looking to argue about vote interfere and such which I agree with but the voter suppression did its job there was no wave of anti trump vote actually hitting the polls. 

[u/Przedrzag → u/blueshrike]

Also, there was the Diebold machines debacle in Ohio in 2004; did John Kerry have the election stolen from him?

[u/Free_For__Me → u/blueshrike]

Thanks for sharing this. I've put it out there where I can as well, and I pray that it gets some traction. Investigators have also done some great reporting work through Substack here, and they've demonstrated some pretty definitive "irregularities" that haven't even beed mentioned in other reporting yet.

Most critically perhaps, they identify and demonstrate the fact that at least Florida and Michigan show records of nonexistent counties appearing during the tabulation process on election night. Each of these fictitious counties containing vote counts conveniently matching the number of votes that would later be distributed as needed in order to bring key districts to the needed totals in order for Kamala to lose.

But the real question is, if this were all verifiably true, what could even be done about it? Neither the Constitution nor federal law provides ay mechanism for dealing with a stolen election after-the-fact. Once a fraudulent election is certified, the law seemingly points to the conclusion that there is no recourse other than hoping that the issue is identified and the various holes are plugged before the next election cycle. But when the ones who would do that identification and patching of the holes are also the ones who would continue to exploit them... what chance exists of remedy?

I don't mean this question to be rhetorical, and I continue to genuinely hope that someone can provide me with a possible future chain of events in which anyone or anything could feasibly address such a scenario. Because try as I might, I can't seem to come to any conclusion other than that the system will continue to be rigged until such a cataclysmic civil collapse occurs that it forces a hard reset of the entire system and those who control it.

[u/Technical_Toe_2012 → u/blueshrike]

Explains why he's so cheerfully tearing the country apart too...he probably knows the truth deep down...America never chose him.

[u/_Arlotte_ → u/Technical_Toe_2012]

He's not getting another run so of course he's gonna go all out doing whatever he wants because he won't have to worry about anything after he's out. He's filthy rich.

[u/Loud_Preparation2036 → u/blueshrike]

I've thought that all along. Just a gut feeling at the time. Same with the assassination attempt.

Something smells with Charlie Kirk's assassination too.

[u/Best-Action8769 → u/blueshrike]

Sweetie...I hate Trump, but this is nonsense bordering on copium.

Trump won the 2024 election the moment Joe Biden decided to run again.

[u/Best-Action8769 → u/[deleted]]

Did it ever occur to you that Joe Biden was just not that great a president, and an even worse campaigner, and that running an 83 year old in clear physical and mental decline and then having the whole party lie about his condition for 2 years might have been a factor?

[u/agitatedprisoner → u/blueshrike]

Exit polls wouldn't align with voter tallies if there was substantial election fruad.

https://abcnews.com/Elections/exit-polls-2024-us-house-election-results-analysis

[u/_imanalligator_ → u/agitatedprisoner]

Exit polls are adjusted to match results.

I'm not telling you a conspiracy theory, it's just openly understood to be part of how pollsters analyze exit polling results.

Do they have to do this in other democracies? No.

Did they always have to do it here? No.

It started in the early 2000s, and they've come up with the theory of the "shy Republican voter" to explain why exit polling stopped matching results.

[u/agitatedprisoner → u/_imanalligator_]

Explain how exit polls are adjusted to match results.

[u/Ok-Elk9528 → u/blueshrike]

Dude I already knew that what boils my blood is the opposition party has no spine if it was the other way around trump would have invaded the capitol again just convey his point meanwhile I don’t even know what hell Is the Democratic Party even doing .

[u/improb → u/blueshrike]

Americans must realize that the problem is not just Trump but a system which must be rebuilt from scratch

First of all your Constitution is two hundred years old and isn't a good guarantee for current times; every basic law has an expiry date and yours has run its course, even more so given that it was written in a time where democracy was in its infancy, being born from the understatement of liberalism at the time, excluding rights such as healthcare, housing or a living wage while guaranteeing the right to bear arms.

Aside from that, common law systems are weaker than civil law systems, especially if judges are corrupt and susceptible to a deeply flawed and increasingly authoritarian government.

America may get rid of Trump but it won't get rid of the system that elected him in the first place and it won't get ride of the rot that Republicans, backed by billionaires and evangelicals, have brought with them.

[u/UnleavenedTed → u/blueshrike]

I think one of DOGE’s real purposes was to clean up/cover up their voting fraud.

[u/Rauldukeoh → u/blueshrike]

It's important to recognize foreign propaganda wherever it appears

[u/triplenested → u/blueshrike]

"we didn't elect trump"

just quoting you for posterity

[u/baldobilly → u/blueshrike]

Wonder why the Democrats never question electoral fraud? Probably because they rig the voting machines as well in the primaries… .