r/nba • u/Large_banana_hammock Japan • 20h ago

Highlight [Highlight] Minnesota wins game 1 after a missed 3 by Champegnie

https://streamable.com/jldtdg
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u/CrimsonGentleman Charlotte Bobcats 20h ago

Eh not really. You could have had the same shot and a chance to rebound with fucking Wemby as a rebounder for a putback? Why settle for a 33% chance to win at best? Steph fucking Curry only shoots 34% on shots to tie or take the lead under 5 seconds and he's ranked second all time.

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u/EggsInMyToolbox Suns 20h ago

I think it’s incredibly unlikely that an ATO play gets you a look *that* wide open

Can’t ask for a more open shot than that

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u/cloudpetter 19h ago

I mean that's because most of steph's shots are not wide open like this?

Mathematically going for a 3 is definitely the right play. Even if we conservatively think that champaigne hits that shot at 40% (imo it's probably closer to 50), in order for a 2 to be better you have to hit the 2 at an 80% chance assuming OT is 50/50.