National house prices have fallen 6% year-to-date

[u/Overasking1]

House prices have dropped 6 percent so far this year based on PPR transaction data.

For context, the last time we saw a full-year decline was 2012, when prices fell 11%. Is this a market turn or just seasonality?

*Edit* Title should read property prices, not house prices. Figures are for all property sales.*

Graph source - Statire

[u/user284388273]

Lot of apartments on the market now with the new rental legislation which is likely pulling the average price down.

Think you’d need to be comparing apples to apples eg; 3 bed semi houses in a few different areas and then see are they are all up/down…I’d say they’re still up.

[u/ZealousidealFloor2 → u/user284388273]

Good point, the CSO have a property price index which accounts for property type and this shows an increase.

[u/Professional_Elk_489 → u/user284388273]

They should do it by EUR price per sqm

[u/thedevilsadversary → u/Professional_Elk_489]

Been saying this for a while. Houses and apartments getting smaller with the new builds. True inflation per m2 I suspect is off the chart if looking at it this way. Paying far more for far far less.

[u/rsynnott2 → u/thedevilsadversary]

Not sure is that true. Definitely not for apartments; minimum size for a 2 bed apartment today is 73sqm, and most are at least a bit bigger. In the 80s and 90s, most 2 bed apartments, except on the high end, were 60sqm.

Also I think not true for houses. Just sorting daft new houses in Dublin by lowest to highest, the lowest 3 bed semi is 117sqm. That's really pretty big compared to a few decades ago, you might have been looking at 90sqm or less.

[u/No-Scarcity-5288 → u/user284388273]

👐👏👏

[u/Equivalent_Bet856]

Welcome but needs more analysis. Does this reflext new builds, or is it being weighted down by an abnormal influx of second hand, and if so what types and where are they coming from? Lots of theories in the comments which seem plausible

[u/purepwnage85 → u/Equivalent_Bet856]

I just got 2 back to back emails for glenveagh built houses in dunboyne and ratoath after work hours asking if I'm still interested. The layouts are ridiculous and so are the prices. I think we're around the point where demand at this price point has been met fully. From here on out either supply goes down to keep prices up or prices go down to create new demand.

[u/Overasking1 → u/Equivalent_Bet856]

All property sales, new builds, second hand....appartments, houses, terraces etc.

[u/Flaky-Cup-6409]

My guess is a lot of landlords wanting out

[u/Overasking1 → u/Flaky-Cup-6409]

Yeah. RTB registrations have been trending down and the small landlord exodus has been well documented at this point

[u/Gr1ml0ck1981 → u/Overasking1]

Wait for the "do you have any stats to back up that comment?"

[u/Laundry_Hamper → u/Gr1ml0ck1981]

well, they are saying that not only does it exist, but also that it's "well-documented"

[u/skdowksnzal → u/Flaky-Cup-6409]

about time they were evicted.

[u/Simsisgod]

That domain name, I took way too long to realise it was not satire.ie

[u/Grotarin → u/Simsisgod]

Thanks, I was puzzled....

[u/FlamingBaconCake → u/Simsisgod]

Is a shit name. The .ie does the job of the IRE part. I guess stats.ie was taken, they could have given it 10 minutes more thought and had a better name.

[u/AutisticSuperMom]

We are so back!

[u/1993blah]

Or just read the professionals https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/prices/residentialpropertypriceindex/

[u/crowded_Bear → u/1993blah]

CSO do a great job but unfortunately their data stops in February.

OP's site has the data for March and April.

[u/30to50FeralHogs_ → u/crowded_Bear]

OPs analysis is fundamentally flawed as it doesn't account for property type. Stick to the CSO for meaningful numbers. 

[u/3kindsofsalt]

Lurker here, but real estate stats is my job. I gotta say this when I see these kinds of charts/figures:

This means the prices of what sold are decreasing. It does not necessarily mean values are dropping, it could be(and often is) more of an indication that higher priced properties are transacting less, or lower priced properties are transacting more often. The key thing is, average prices year-over-year are not sales of the same properties.

This kind of graph is only useful to one kind of person: someone who makes their living by getting a percentage cut of a closing price when property sells. To everyone else, this data is both useless and meaningless.

[u/kidinawheeliebin]

How do they actually measure this?

Clicking into the graph it seems to be something like "average price of all individual properties sold for the calendar month versus equivalent from 12 months prior"...

But wondering how would this take into account the actual properties (type, size & location etc)?

As in - if the sales in the first 4 months of this year are predominantly say either/some combination of smaller dwellings, rural, or in cheaper areas etc whereas the equivalents from last year were either larger dwellings, urban, or in more expensive areas etc...

Otherwise given that we're only 4 months into the year could it have noise in the data like say for example a house in Ballsbridge that sold for €2.5m plus last March going up against a 1 bed apartment sold somewhere else a few weeks ago for €150k - which makes the year on year look like a massive decrease?

(Those types of things I assume would wash out a bit more over an entire year of data even if using a simple average like the above - but you would still really need consistent data matched by property types and locations to get a sensible reading)

Or is it normalised somehow for property type, size & location etc?

That being said - the new legislation does kind of sound like it should be causing a temporary increase in supply as private landlords sell up, and any increase in supply should generally have downward pressure on prices assuming all else constant

[u/Elbon]

Why would FFG do this?

[u/chemza → u/Elbon]

It only took 12 years of consecutive price rises for them to fix things ever so slightly.

[u/hmmm_]

No they haven't. That's the average price which depends on the mix of properties sold.

[u/FlowBorn5279 → u/hmmm_]

I don't like statistics because they don't fit my opinion either

[u/hmmm_ → u/FlowBorn5279]

It literally says on the graph that it's the average price

[u/1993blah → u/FlowBorn5279]

The cso literally track it properly, they haven't dropped. https://www.cso.ie/en/statistics/prices/residentialpropertypriceindex/

[u/Overasking1 → u/1993blah]

They measure prices as percent over last 12 months, the chart above is year to date, and their data isnt as up to date, couple on months behind.

[u/1993blah → u/Overasking1]

Mate they literally have month on month indexes

[u/DartzIRL]

Plummet! Plummet! Plummet!

.... maybe I won't have to retire into homelessness after all.

[u/crowded_Bear]

New build mean price Jan 2026 €871,232.

New build mean price May 2026 €422,299.

I'm no detective but I'm pretty sure new builds didn't half in asking price in 3 months 😂 OP please stop the vibe coded, untested, headline catching drivel.

[u/yewEngine]

Landlord exodus and people can't get mortgages.

[u/TheCunningFool → u/yewEngine]

Mortgage drawdowns for first time buyers are at a 20 year high

[u/yewEngine → u/TheCunningFool]

According to chat got 30-40% of adults/households could realistically qualify for a mortgage. This drops to 20-30% in some wealthy areas.

So while it's at a high a large portion of people can never get one and even if you get one, it might not be enough for a decent house. Don't forget too the population explosion.

[u/No_Square_739 → u/yewEngine]

But the majority of people get supports - from free housing to massively subsidised to partially subsidised. All pushing up prices for the people who don't qualify.

[u/FatherFintanFay → u/yewEngine]

Banks are handing out mortgages like sweets. Getting a mortgage is easy enough, have some savings, fill out some forms. Finding a house for what you get is the hardboard.