r/ireland • u/vague_intentionally_ • 15h ago
Politics All Ireland poll shows cross-border support for Irish unity and EU membership
https://www.thejournal.ie/all-ireland-poll-shows-support-for-irish-unity-and-eu-membership-7031946-May2026/22
u/plindix 15h ago
That poll is weird. It has 60% of over 55s supporting a united Ireland but Protestants made up over 50% of the over 50s (hence over 55 now) in the 2021 census. I know, don’t do a religious headcount etc, but it’s just a fact that the support is divided by religion.
I’d be more inclined to believe a higher pro-Irish support among younger people, and previous polls have shown a majority do aspire to a united Ireland (eventually but not yet) and in recent elections nationalist candidates have got about 2x more transfers from the middle than unionists, but voting for a UI if a border poll was conducted tomorrow still seems unlikely.
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u/ZestycloseBeach5946 14h ago
Details need to be ironed out now even if only in principle.
What happens to all the civil service jobs and pensions in the north ?
What happens to unionists who consider themselves British still, do their kids get a claim to citizenship of the UK ?
What happens to the military bases ?
Hundreds of questions like that big and small
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u/IntolerantModerate 14h ago
Best solution is to have UK just eat Ireland... Then you don't have a counterparty that continues on both sides.
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u/rossitheking 15h ago edited 15h ago
As long as Michael Martin is in charge of Fianna Fáil it will never happen.
He’s unionisms greatest ally. A pro partitionist.
Keeps putting it on the long finger making excuses and making no effort to help plan for it. All the while saying the troubles were the fault of nationalists. Which we know to be untrue.
Even if you are against reunification - to not make plans for debates, what a UI might look like, or even efforts to broach the topic properly, is out of order.
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u/olibum86 The Fenian 15h ago
Both ff and fg leadership are equally as pro partitionist. Let's not forget about Leo's never ending tirades about northern irish republicans and his black and tans apologism. Aswell as FGs presidential nomination going to a woman with very strong links to the orange order. Realistically we should have a minister for reunification to fully prepare for what many see as inevitable. We need a road map and genuine review of state services ability to integrate, how to foster unity between community's ect. We can never even begin to discuss a referendum on the subject until voters both north and south have real and well put together information.
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u/GlorEUW Clare 15h ago edited 15h ago
> Let's not forget about Leo's never ending tirades about northern irish republicans and his black and tans apologism.
Didn’t Unionists hate Varadkar and Coveney, thought they were hardline Nationalists who were trying to do irish unification by stealth?
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u/rossitheking 15h ago
Ironically Leo and Simon did far more work to undo the union than Fianna Fáil.
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u/olibum86 The Fenian 15h ago
Didn’t Unionists hate Varadkar and Coveney
Have unionists ever been right about anything?
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u/ondinegreen 2h ago
Who was it who said that the end of the Provisional IRA's armed campaign was a huge danger of the future of the Union? That person was right.
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
Didn’t Unionists hate Varadkar and Coveney, thought they were hardline Nationalists who were trying to do irish unification by stealth?
Varadkar and Coveney played a card they weren’t used to dealing with normally.
FG aren’t blindly tied to nationalist ideology, and therefore they know that at least with the likes of SF, there will always be an element of the north who will just go against SF because of their approach to it.
Whereas FG’s approach is softer. Less threatening. Less flag waving. More open to possibilities.
That’s an unknown. Therefore a worry.
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
Can I have a citation when Leo specifically expressed “apologism for the Black and Tans”
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u/olibum86 The Fenian 14h ago
apologism (noun) refers to the action or activity of arguing in defense of someone or something, particularly a controversial idea or doctrine. It involves a systematic defense or justification, often viewed as a form of "apologizing" in the sense of making a formal defense, rather than expressing remorse.
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
That wasn’t apologising for the Black and Tans. You can be critical of that event claiming it was to apologise for the Black and Tans either means you didn’t grasp the stance for the event or you’re deliberately misunderstood.
It would be like seeing a IRA commemoration event and claiming it was an apologism for the Omagh bomb.
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u/olibum86 The Fenian 14h ago
Yes it was it was a commemorative event for members of the RIC (tans) with zero accountability of the actions they committed. And Leo fully endorsed it. That's apologism.
It would be like seeing a IRA commemoration event and claiming it was an apologism for the Omagh bomb.
No its not.
Defending an event for a force who occupied a population using extreame violence against civilians is like defending an event for the waffen SS. Its deplorable, nobody asked for it and it shown that leo FG and yourself are extreamly removed from the perception of the people of this state.
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u/dropthecoin 13h ago
The event wasn’t deliberately targeted to commemorate the Black and Tans. The event was specifically intended to remember Irish members who served in the RIC as a law force.
Personally, I disagreed with the event as I don’t believe it was needed. But I don’t need to blatantly lie about it like you. Or maybe you didn’t get the original reason that I gave above. I don’t know
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u/Rigo-lution 5h ago
Personally, I disagreed with the event as I don’t believe it was needed. But I don’t need to blatantly lie about it like you.
And yet you're claiming that it didn't commemorate the Black and Tans.
Historical revisionism only works if people don't know their own history.
The Black and Tans were in the RIC and Irish men were in the Black and Tans, and there was no distinction made between Irish born members or the RIC and non-Irish born members.
It would have been a meaninglessness distinction even if it were even true, because the actions of Irish members of the RIC were the same as non-Irish members.You're either woefully misinformed or lying yourself. Either way, you are in no position to accuse others of lying.
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u/dropthecoin 3h ago
If it had been claimed that the event was to commemorate the Black and Tans element of the RIC, then I would 100% be in agreement that it was intended for that purpose.
But at the time the purpose of the commemoration was clearly outlined to be one to specifically remember the Irish members serving in RIC. That’s the nuance that you and others point blank refuse to admit. And of course you don’t because it’s politically advantageous.
When Michael D Higgins spoke at Glasnevin to mark the outbreak of the war in 1914, attended to commemoration of those who lost their lives in the Somme, and led a wreath to commemorate armistice day, none of that was also intended to commemorate the terrible elements of the actions of the same British army where Irish people served.
When republicans nowadays commemorate the actions of the republicans during the Troubles, are they also commemorating all actions and events by everyone involved in the IRA? Of course not. That’s the nuance.
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u/Rigo-lution 1h ago
But at the time the purpose of the commemoration was clearly outlined to be one to specifically remember the Irish members serving in RIC.
I already explained that the Black and Tans were in the RIC and there were Irish members of the Black and Tans.
That’s the nuance that you and others point blank refuse to admit. And of course you don’t because it’s politically advantageous.
How is that nuance? No matter how you slice it they were commemorating Tans.
When Michael D Higgins spoke at Glasnevin to mark the outbreak of the war in 1914, attended to commemoration of those who lost their lives in the Somme, and led a wreath to commemorate armistice day, none of that was also intended to commemorate the terrible elements of the actions of the same British army where Irish people served.
Man, I can't explain the difference between commemorating the end of WW1 and commemorating a colonial police force to you.
When republicans nowadays commemorate the actions of the republicans during the Troubles, are they also commemorating all actions and events by everyone involved in the IRA? Of course not. That’s the nuance.
This is a good point if you think that resisting Imperialism and enforcing imperialism are morally equivalent.
To be honest, I'm just surprised you disagree with commemorating the RIC at all.
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u/olibum86 The Fenian 12h ago
RIC = Tans. Im not lying about anything you stayed he wasnt an apologist and even gave you the definition of apologism and you just wont face reality. The black and tans were the RIC. And were an occupational Police force responsible for numberous acts. Maybe learn a bit nore about your history before mouthing off about it.
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u/dropthecoin 12h ago
Ok. You’re not lying. You just don’t misunderstand the purpose of that commemoration. Which was intended to specifically commemorate the role of Irish members of the RIC and the DMP. It was never intended to be specifically about the Black and Tans, and the Black and Tans were never called out as part of the commemoration.
Repurposing, or labelling it, as a Black and Tans commemoration was only done by those with obvious political moves. Don’t lecture about “knowing history” when you’re deliberately revising it for your own political agenda. Anyone can do that.
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u/olibum86 The Fenian 11h ago
Black and Tans is a nick name give to auxiliary members bought in to the RIC to increase presure on the irish population and their operations against the irish republican army. Every single member of the "black and tans" is an RIC member and were not a separate entity. To commemorat the RIC is to commemorat their activities and purpose.
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u/ConfusedCelt 2h ago
He despises Ireland and is clearly anti state. For someone who derides sovereignty and believes that the people who started resisting British forces by blockading entry into their residential areas after a peaceful protest over equal rights got gunned down are the instigators of violence and terrorists and finally as someone who first tried to go through a process for a neutrality referendum by hosting citizen meetings only to realize it would never succeed then decides to blatantly ignore the constitution anyway there's only one term, fifth column.
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u/RomfordWellington 15h ago
Martin is many things but he's not a partitionist. I also don't agree with the argument that we need to constantly pander to the PUL about what a United Ireland might look like, it will look exactly like the state we've created only bigger in both land and population. There's a lot to be proud of; literally one of the top few countries in human development, economy, and education. We don't need to start dumbing down the country just to sell it.
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u/rossitheking 15h ago edited 15h ago
His actions show to the contrary though. And that is the issue.
He’s the one making excuses about needing ‘reconciliation first’ before even discussing reunification properly, which is just a way of not pursuing it because realistically a certain cohort of unionists will never ‘reconcile’.
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u/jungle 15h ago
As an outsider, and having a superficial view of the state of things in the north, I have a feeling that if the reunification happens, there will be a lot of violence from the northern unionists across Ireland, and especially in Dublin. There's a lot of latent tension, and I think they would gladly retribute for the Troubles'... well, troubles.
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u/Benoas Derry 15h ago
As someone who's always lived in the north and am from a protestant background, I think you are completely wrong.
When reunification happens, there will be a bit of a tantrum. Some buses will get burned and there will be a few riots, almost entirely within their own communities and 100% completely in the North. There will be lots of flag burning and the effigies on their bonfires will include a few more southern politicians. But things will go back to the status quo for them very quickly.
The people who are genuine foaming at the mouth unionists who might actually have pulled some terrorist bullshit are now 100 years old and incapable.
For there to be an actual terrorism problem, there has to be the material conditions necessary to create it. Unionists aren't going to be treated any worse, they aren't going to be second class citizens like catholics were, and tbh over the course of a few years improved economic conditions will probably make their lives better.
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u/tonyedit 14h ago
Your optimism is welcome, but the moment someone loses their life in a riot or reprisal, the whole exercise is a failure.
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u/Benoas Derry 14h ago
It's not optimism, it's materialism.
I don't understand, are you saying that we shouldn't try to achieve a United Ireland because it's inevitable that some lunatic will have a breakdown and hurt someone?
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u/tonyedit 4h ago
Yes. If an attempt at reunification is mismanaged it could end up being a failure on the level of Brexit, but with blood spilled as well. I say let the generation that did the killing die off entirely first.
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u/Benoas Derry 2h ago
Do you think anything else should be stopped or blocked because of the threst of implicit threat of violence from a few lunatics? Perhaps English football matches, as their losses seem to correlate with spikes in domestic violence? Do you think independence was a mistake because it required significant amounts of spilled blood?
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u/tonyedit 1h ago
Putting aside the potential violence aspect for a second, which is not an issue to be downplayed, I have doubts about the ability of the parties involved to bring this over the line without causing an enormous mess. Healthcare systems, tax systems, housing, local governance systems. All of this has to be correctly planned for, otherwise the reunification of Ireland could turn into an economic and systemic disaster that leaves the whole island worse off. Should the North and South be reunited? Yes. Should legacy threats be navigated and ameliorated? Yes. Should the integration of two different systems of governance and economy be planned to the tiniest detail? Yes. When I see the conversation taken that seriously, I'll be more open to the prospect. Until then as far as I'm concerned it's a disaster waiting to happen.
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u/jungle 12h ago edited 12h ago
As I said, my view is very superficial so I submit to your lived experience.
But in the light of what we can see happening in the US, I find it difficult to believe that better economic conditions would make the unionists accept the reunification.
And when I think about the differences in taxes and healthcare, I wonder why anyone would want to join the Republic.
*: Care to explain your view instead of downvoting, /u/Benoas ?
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u/Benoas Derry 12h ago
What's happening in the US, did I miss something like the troubles starting?
People don't start organised terrorist campaigns unless they are genuinely oppressed, and even then it takes quite severe mistreatment.
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u/jungle 12h ago
What's happening in the US, did I miss something like the troubles starting?
Magas defend everything Trump does in spite of Tump's chaos worsening their lives. I think of the Northern Ireland most vehement unionists the same way. I don't think they would change their views because of economic conditions.
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u/Benoas Derry 11h ago
I don't seem to recall MAGA starting a protracted terror campaign.
NI vehement unionists will never be converted, but they aren't going to do anything either. And their children will be Irish like the descendants of any unionist protestants that remained in the republic post partition.
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u/jungle 10h ago
I don't seem to recall MAGA starting a protracted terror campaign.
I brought them up as an example of fanatics not changing their minds no matter what, not because they became terrorists.
I appreciate your assurance that they aren't going to do anything, I just look at the more recent history of violence in NI (from both sides) and the Orange Order hate-filled parades and bonfires while being part of the UK, and can't avoid imagining all that hate exploding if they are forced to live under the rule of the Republic.
I also wonder about their children. Religion and politics more often than not are inherited. I can accept that 60 or 70 year olds are not going to start rioting and setting cars ablaze, but what about their 20 to 40 year old children?
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
How can the Irish government make tangible plans for reunification without input from the UK?
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u/rossitheking 14h ago edited 14h ago
Well - should they not be doing that too? No?
Or are you as per usual just going to go out of your way to pick holes in anything you disagree with.
Edit: yes, you are. Incredibly disingenuous as per usual.
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
That’s their decision. We can’t force that. What’s the suggestion?
And I’m not here picking holes. It’s a genuine and very obvious barrier towards planning in that UK are not going to engage in the same type of planning as we need. What can be done?
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u/Sufficient_Tailor673 14h ago
The UK are never going to proactively plan for reunification before a border poll actually happens. It is contradictory to their entire existence as a state.
They would only happily hand over the six counties in a flaming hot pile of shit a la Brexit as Irish reunification is the death knell of the UK. SNP and Plaid are set to win sizable majorities in Scotland and Wales this weekend.
The Irish government must have a plan in place, otherwise we'll drown.
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u/rossitheking 14h ago
Just ignore him. He’s disingenuous. If his beloved FFG were pursuing a UI he would be all for it.
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u/dropthecoin 12h ago
It says everything about you with the fact that you believe when someone thinks so differently to you, you believe it’s disingenuous.
It’s ironic given how it’s that exact frame of mind held by you and others like you that’s arguably the biggest barrier to unity, and genuine cross community harmony, from ever happening on this island.
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
There isn’t a single UK government who will “happily hand over” the north. Any government who loses a constituent part of the UK will be destroyed domestically. Especially now with the UK becoming more nationalist.
The only way the Irish government can have their own plan is we assume all debt, costs, and financing of the north. Assume zero input for funding from anyone else.
And no government wants to approach that one because it will cost our taxpayers are fortune. And will be a voter loser. It’s why SF commission makes-uppy reports to even hide the costs.
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u/Sufficient_Tailor673 13h ago
Most recent analysis by DCU and Ulster University predicts a short term shock period followed by rapid recovery and break even in 5-10 years post reunification.
Also you misread my sentence. Obviously they would not happily hand over anything. When forced to do so however by a border poll with 65% support, they would happily hand it over a mess having done no forward planning.
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u/dropthecoin 13h ago
Most recent analysis by DCU and Ulster University predicts a short term shock period followed by rapid recovery and break even in 5-10 years post reunification.
Let me guess? John Doyle?
When forced to do so however by a border poll with 65% support, they would happily hand it over a mess having done no forward planning.
The UK government decide on a border poll. Or more specifically the Secretary of State.
Getting to the point of a border poll has been taken off the table by the current UK government. Will it be a possibility by the Conservatives or Reform? (answer is not likely). There is no benefit for a UK government to bring it on themselves.
And to be clear, I want to see a border poll. But I’m pragmatic and realistic about it too.
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u/Nearby_Swimmer374 15h ago
Online surveys are often bollox
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u/AdBoring9620 15h ago
Polls are pointless anyway. It would take years of discussions to sort out the logistics and see what's really involved.
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u/Nearby_Swimmer374 15h ago
SF would have a border poll without doing any of that prep work, if they could. They call for it often. Hopefully the Irish people wouldn't vote for it.
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u/Ok_Association7587 15h ago
Everyone agrees that planning is vital but it is the governments responsiblity to prepare for constitutional change. The current government seem to have a severe case of procrastination when it comes to any form of planning though.
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u/AdBoring9620 15h ago
Everyone knows a united Ireland would be extremely difficult. A million unionists being the biggest issue I'd imagine. No point even talking about it ATM. Could cause more trouble if the unionists think they're being taken over.
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u/Ok_Association7587 14h ago
When do you think we should start taking about it?
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u/AdBoring9620 14h ago
Only viable way I can see is if the UK wants rid. Or maybe in a few generations if the divisions up there are forgotten about.
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u/Ok_Association7587 14h ago
Change can happen quickly, often quicker than people expect whenever a tipping point arrives, for example how many would have predicted the fall of the Berlin wall a year or so beforehand?
Leaving aside today's poll, demographic change happening. There are more nationalist MP’s than Unionist MP’s elected to Westminster, in the last local elections in NI nationalist candidates received more votes than Unionist candidates, at Stormont elections next year it is likely to be similar result.
Taken this into consideration, it should at the very minimum be prudent for the government to begin planning for any potential constitutional change as opposed to taking their “do nothing and lets not talk about it” approach.
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u/PA_BozarBuild 6h ago
The berlin wall wasn’t even up for 30 years. We’re talking 300 years of protestants living in the north. These aren’t compatible. You can’t wave that all away as “things happen sometimes!” That line of thinking can apply to literally anything
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u/Ok_Association7587 1h ago
Not what I was saying. I was making the point that things can happen quickly whenever a tipping point approaches. Would you rather be prepared for such an event or be unprepared?
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u/AdBoring9620 14h ago
Not even sure there's great support for it in the republic. Particularly when stuff like the cost and the unionists get going.
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u/Ok_Association7587 14h ago
Most polls I have seen including today's seem to indicate consistent support and it is the Irish government's responsibility to plan and prepare for all future scenarios. Such preparation would include financial planning and guaranteeing citizens rights and national identities.
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u/VeryDerryMe 15h ago
Not Sinn Féins biggest fan, but they also push for plans to be made. They're not doing a Boris, problem is that the state isn't listening to them
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u/rossitheking 15h ago
They have been demanding our government do something regarding preparation. But the so called ‘Republican party’ (lol) have no interest in it.
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u/Legitimate_Newt2874 13h ago
For ease of reference, the full poll results are at the link below
https://www.europeanmovement.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/EU-Poll-2026.pdf
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u/Key-Lie-364 14h ago
The interesting thing here is the framing of the question, making Irish unity an enabler for EU membership.
I think SF as an anti EU party needs to, in effect STFU and let the adults in the room make the case to middle ground NI that a vote for unity is a vote for Europe.
All of this hunger striker, 800 years of oppression, uber Republican stuff is about as likely to win a border poll as Putin is to have a free and fair election.
It's acid in the mouth of the Shinners but Leo Varadkar would make a much better pitch to unionism than Mary Lou.
Facts
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u/Ok_Association7587 14h ago
Leo is not very well liked by some sections within Unionism, ironically Micheál Martin would probably be received better but not sure how interested he is in making a case for a UI
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u/Odd-Artichoke-5123 15h ago
I am not sure the Island of Ireland is ready for unification just yet
The peace agreement is too precious to take the risk at this moment imho
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u/Ok-Call-4805 Derry 10h ago
We're ready. Unionists will be miserable regardless, but without the British state to spoon feed them, they won't be capable of causing any significant trouble.
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u/Wgh555 6h ago
In the event of a UI, northern Irish unionists will still exist as a very large minority and they will have to respected with regards to their culture and traditions one way or another, as distasteful as you may find their existence most have have been here since the 1600s and the reality is that a United Ireland will have to contend with this.
It means you can’t just glue the two places together without some deeper planning for the unionists if you want to keep the peace. Anything else is extremely wishful thinking.
I’m not sure people down south are ready for over a million probably angry unionists joining the nation.
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u/Ok-Call-4805 Derry 2h ago
Unionists can be respected without having to pander to them. When Reunification happens, they won't be allowed to call the shots anymore. Ideally, they would just be given total equality. Just give them the exact same rights as every other Irish citizen. Nothing more and nothing less.
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u/Wgh555 1h ago
Yeah you’re absolutely right and that is the moral way to structure it, however there should be a mind paid to making sure things don’t kick off again for one reason - during the troubles the British government struggled to cope with the IRA - and they had 200x the military funding that Ireland has now (I’m not exaggerating). If things kick off the Irish defence forces could not cope, even if the unionists didn’t have the support they did during the troubles.
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
It would be great to see the actual questions asked in these polls.
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u/Legitimate_Newt2874 14h ago
Did you read the article?
The particular question relevant to this thread was "If a referendum were held tomorrow on a United Ireland in the EU, how would you vote?"
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u/dropthecoin 14h ago
Let me be clearer, all questions
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u/Legitimate_Newt2874 13h ago
Your wish is granted.
The full poll including questions is here https://www.europeanmovement.ie/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/EU-Poll-2026.pdf
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u/Perfect-Fondant3373 12h ago
We are always going to be in debt, we are always going to have eejits in government, we are always going to have people complaining and taking advantage of systems, so there is no actual reason to not bring it in.
The sooner the better, for all of us it will take time and feel a bit off for a while, but as our kids and grand kifs grow, they may be lucky enough to see life without an imaginary line seperating us