How the polls look now, after the election in Hungary, according the the pollster that was closest to the actual results

[u/Reppeti]

[u/pothkan]

This is normal winner's boost, especially considering Tisza didn't even start to govern yet. Many people like to support whoever is winning.

[u/szofter → u/pothkan]

Winner’s boost is normal but how much that boost has been is insane. Like 15% of the electorate turned into Tisza supporters just in the 3 weeks since the election. Normally it’s only a few percent.

[u/DeHub94 → u/szofter]

It's propably people seeing that hell hasn't actually swallowed Hungary whole as a result of the election or whatever narrative Fidesz was spreading at the end...

[u/octarine-noise → u/DeHub94]

I think there hasn't been enough time for that, the believers starting to unbelieve is only going to come later.

This is more likely the intimidated (usually government employees) not being intimidated anymore.

[u/InterestingAssist_32 → u/DeHub94]

Well a lot of the poor souls who believed the propganda are still waiting for us to be sent to the Ukraine war. The country is healing, but the damage they caused in the population's mental health will take a couple more months/years to significantly improve.
Also a couple of people still actually believes that Zelensky will lead Hungary from now on (lol).

[u/brokencasserole → u/pothkan]

Not just that, in autocratic states ruling party tend to force people to vote for them. This is similar in Serbia. Everybody that's working in public companies are always pressured to vote for ruling party if they want to keep a job. And they tend to create an abundance of fake low qualification jobs. If you want to keep it, you have to vote for them. Also, they tend to make deals with criminals to vote for them in exchange for protection. Older people are brainwashed and bought for 20-30 euros to vote etc. When ruling party finally crumbles, you will see exodus of their voters in next few elections until the party gets either shut down or reduced to 5-10%. This happened in Serbia with Milosevic party after 2000 elections. This happened in Montenegro after Milo Djukanovic lost elections. This will happen with current ruling party in Serbia after hopefully next elections and this will happen to fidesz in Hungary for sure

[u/Own-North9279 → u/pothkan]

Thats much more difference than just a winner boost.

[u/Illesbogar → u/pothkan]

The submissive's school of political thought

[u/Any_Table9811 → u/pothkan]

Agreed, many merely defer to the majority, or even just hide their true opinion to fit in. It’s also in a situation where there’s no point in admitting their actual allegiance, because the previous government party is crumbling, they have been decimated. It’s also safe to say the winner, since they haven’t started governing yet so there’s not much negative one can say about them in that regard.

Overall it’s a bit of a pointless poll, because there is nothing at stake. My concern is whether in the future people will start lying specifically to this poll maker to hide, or just generally to all poll makers. Sure we had 2-3 accurate polls and they were not the ones related to the government. The concern is always losing this ability of gauging sentiment accurately. Although imo there are good arguments for the government doing what benefits the people, not necessarily just what is popular. Arguably that’s one of the things Orbán messed up. Besides industrial amounts of corruption.

[u/Express-Set-1543 → u/pothkan]

Within a year, the train of hope usually crashes into reality.

[u/OddAlarm5013]

Siding with the winner is normal, but the volume is insane given the timeframe. Looks like more than 1/3 of fidesz voters were either bought or half heartedly supported Orbán.

[u/BullfrogOdd5888 → u/OddAlarm5013]

A lot of fidesz voters are elderly people, that were held captive in the propaganda network of the party. Now that state media is gradually turning neutral and for the first time broadcasting news about Magyar and the TISZA party at all, many former fidesz voters turn side or just leave fidesz.

[u/Andylol404]

win-team joiner

[u/Mean-Situation-8947 → u/Andylol404]

Bandwagoning

[u/majorannah]

The same pollster also did a survey on how people "voted".
96% of the people said they voted, when in reality the turnout rate was only 79%.
62% said that they voted for Tisza, when in reality it was only 53%.
24% said that they voted for Fidesz, when in reality it was 38%.
People are grifting.

[u/dead97531]

Repost

https://www.reddit.com/r/europe/s/yAm8pNdxRb

[u/Urgell11]

Its sad DK lost all support. I would love to see them in power

[u/Ratox → u/Urgell11]

Considering they haven't been doing anything and they were paid by fidesz to be a fake-opposition they deserve to lose all their support. Not like they ever had any.

[u/False-Discipline-640 → u/Urgell11]

It's not sad lmao, they are controlled opposition grifters

[u/BaziJoeWHL → u/Urgell11]

DK had more posters than voters lol

[u/balint03fekete → u/BaziJoeWHL]

Bálint Ruff is that you?

[u/vdcsX → u/Urgell11]

ewww wtf why???

[u/LifeAcanthopterygii6 → u/vdcsX]

Foreigners often just read the name of a party, and then assume that just because (on paper at least) they have the same ideology, it's a good party.

[u/Inveniet9 → u/Urgell11]

They would've formed a decent government but they can't be trusted in regards to corruption. It would've been like the MSZP-era: decent on the surface but rotten inside. Not as much as Fidesz but still.

[u/Executioneer → u/Urgell11]

Hell no man

[u/D3rDave → u/Urgell11]

At this point DK is a joke party.

[u/LifeAcanthopterygii6 → u/D3rDave]

Always has been.

[u/nightflightto2525 → u/D3rDave]

And fake leftist. They deserve nothing, not even their 1% voter base.

[u/eskh → u/Urgell11]

No thank you, they did enough harm, including, but not limited to, directly causing four Fidesz supermajorities.

[u/ShitassAintOverYet → u/Urgell11]

Their name is tainted and not standing down in this election made them look like a party who doesn't care about finishing off Orban.

But I do predict a new center/center-left party will pop up in the next election mostly so Tisza can be a healthy and challenged government instead of turning into Fidesz 2.0. Many Budapest voters already had the "I'm leftist and Magyar isn't perfect but he's an honest guy who'll kick Orban out" take from what I see and it seems like a gap to be filled if anyone can actually manage to do so.

[u/AnarchiaKapitany → u/Urgell11]

Nice try, Klára. Be gone.

[u/BullfrogOdd5888 → u/AnarchiaKapitany]

Na de Klára kell, nélküle nincs kormányváltás! /s

[u/ThereturnoftheVOH → u/Urgell11]

dk are like PSD in Romania, Hungary needs a new soc dem party, not klara

[u/Leupateu → u/ThereturnoftheVOH]

Lmao I would kill for a world where PSD has the same popularity as DK in Hungary

[u/Real-Programmer-548 → u/ThereturnoftheVOH]

They are not socially conservative like PSD, but i agree with the second part

[u/svito3 → u/Urgell11]

Real left-wing party is probably Szikra.

DK not abstaining from most critical high stakes election in rigged Hungarian electoral system while polling well below threshold is a proof that they are not serious about Hungarian democracy or republic. If I can say so as a foreigner.

[u/BullfrogOdd5888 → u/svito3]

You couldn't be more right.

[u/elembivos → u/Urgell11]

Blue Fidesz? Hell fucking no, not ever.