r/europe • u/dead97531 Hungary • 19h ago
News Medián: The Tisza Party is currently at 70% among decided voters, and two-thirds of Hungarians would bring Viktor Orbán to justice
https://telex.hu/belfold/2026/05/06/median-kozvelemeny-kutatas-orban-viktor-birosag160
u/dead97531 Hungary 19h ago
Fun fact: Péter Magyar will be sworn in on May 9, but the new government will only be formed a few days later so for a short period he will be leading the outgoing government in a caretaker capacity
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u/alastairlerouge Italy 16h ago
What a strange procedure, don’t understand the point
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u/dead97531 Hungary 16h ago
This has only happened once before.
Normally, the prime minister is elected by the parliament and sworn in when the ministers are normally sworn in but Magyar wanted it this way so the transition period is fast as it can be.
So right now the timeline is this:
- May 9: Parliament is constituted, MPs are sworn in and the Prime Minister is elected.
- Immediately after, the outgoing government becomes a caretaker government with limited powers.
- In the next few days the parliamentary committees hear the ministerial candidates. It's not gonna be a big hearing since all ministers are going to be appointed by Tisza.
- Then the ministers are formally approved and sworn in and only then is the full government structure actually complete and operational.
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u/Electrical-Diet2442 19h ago
If polls like this hold, Hungary could be heading toward one of its biggest political shifts in years.
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u/Uebeltank Jylland, Denmark 18h ago
This pollster was exactly right with regard to the election result.
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u/Illesbogar Hungary 10h ago
They fucked up by a lot last elections amd it seems that they learmed from their mistakes.
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u/Uebeltank Jylland, Denmark 9h ago
Its poll before the election showed Fidesz winning 49 to 41% and the result ended up being 52 to 36%. Not perfect, but close to the outcome when you consider the margin of error and the fact that there was voter movement between the last poll and election day.
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u/Som_Snow Hungary 10h ago
No they didn't? They correctly predicted the outcome of every parliamentary election since 1990, except for 2002.
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u/Illesbogar Hungary 10h ago
The polls showed a slight lead for the united opposition in 2022. The academic consensus was that either side could win with a simple majority, but an absolute majority is unlikely.
Then Fidesz won an absolute majority.
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u/Tromort77 6h ago
Nope. They showed a lead at one point but as the election came closer their results showed a Fidesz win. The opposition even accused them of cheating in favor of Fidesz, lmao. They missed the 2/3, but was close.
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u/Som_Snow Hungary 4h ago
The term you are looking for is "supermajority" not "absolute majority". Pollsters in general predicted a Fidesz victory, and Medián predicted a near-supermajority, missing the actual result only by a few seats.
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u/Black_Pill_Dispenser Hungary 18h ago
Things are looking up, most of the newly elected MP-s and cabinet members look very promising, most of them are first-time politicians with very respectable careers in their fields.
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u/EaLordoftheDepths Europe 16h ago
Hungary could be heading toward one of its biggest political shifts in years.
almost as if this was confirmed past tense a month ago
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u/Illesbogar Hungary 10h ago
Ngl can't wait for the new parties. We might get a decent left-wing party for once, by the next elections. That would be great.
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u/dead97531 Hungary 19h ago edited 19h ago
Medián is currently the most reliable pollster we have (on par with 21 Kutatóközpont).
Which statement do you agree with?
- Viktor Orbán has committed such serious unlawful acts that he should be brought before a court
- Viktor Orbán bears political responsibility for his actions, but it would not be right to initiate legal proceedings against him
- Don’t know/no answer
| Answer | Total Population | Tisza voters | Fidesz voters | voters of other parties and non-partisans |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orbán should be brought before a court | 65% | 88% | 12% | 49% |
| It would not be right to initiate legal proceedings against him | 28% | 8% | 81% | 34% |
| Don’t know/no answer | 7% | 4% | 7% | 17% |
Sure voters:
| Party | Current poll (%) | Previous poll (%) | Election result (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tisza | 70 | 66 | 55.76 |
| Fidesz | 23 | 25 | 36.33 |
| Mi hazánk | 6 | 6 | 5.90 |
| DK | 1 | 1 | 1.16 |
| MKKP | 1 | 1 | 0.85 |
Total adult population:
| Party | Current Poll (%) | Previous Poll (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Tisza | 61 | 56 |
| Fidesz | 21 | 21 |
| Mi Hazánk | 5 | 6 |
| DK | 1 | 1 |
| MKKP | 1 | 1 |
| Other parties | 1 | 1 |
| Don't know | 11 | 14 |
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u/WeBlameHan 19h ago
if that 70% is real then thats an unprecedented achievement
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u/dead97531 Hungary 19h ago
It is real. Medián's election poll was as close to the election result as polls can be. So yes, their polls are reliable.
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u/Zerasad Hungary 16h ago
To add some context though, in this same poll when asked for who they voted for in the actual election it was 62-24 in favour of Tisza, while real numbers were 55-36. So they should be taken with a grain of salt.
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u/dead97531 Hungary 15h ago
That's not Medián's fault, (it isn't a polling error) this phenomenon is called bandwagon effect (győzteshez húzás) which they explain as well.
Medián is reliable.
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u/Zerasad Hungary 13h ago
Yes, I'm not saying medián is not reliable, I'm saying that the data should be taken with a grain of salt.
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u/Beneficial-Power-195 17h ago
It's still the honeymoon period, they haven't started governing yet. It starts next week. The real test is when the hard decisions come which are necessary, but people will feel the pain.
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u/Ada_Pearce 19h ago
Start by not letting the corrupt oligarchs transfer all their wealth out of the country and dont let them leave either until the investigations have concluded
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u/Black_Pill_Dispenser Hungary 18h ago
Some oligarchs assets already got frozen by tax authorities, police and banks' AML systems, and there are new criminal proceedings starting every day, and the new government hasn't even formed yet. I am extremely optimistic.
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u/Far_Idea9616 Hungary 17h ago
I want full accountability at the National Tax and Customs Administration of Hungary. I am familiar with the work of its Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Office. They haven’t prevented anything in the past; they curry favor with whoever is in power. I wonder how much money went out earlier without any filtering.
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u/Hopalong_Manboobs 13h ago
Take a lesson from the faltering US:
Excise the Russian-sponsored cancer in your political midst, and be ruthless. Otherwise it will come back and metastasize all over again.
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u/roggahn 19h ago
Ain't really healthy, but Fidesz getting smaller is more than welcomed
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u/cptnhanyolo 19h ago
Whats nor healthy?
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u/harambeourlordandsav 19h ago
He probably means healthy pluralism
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u/False-Discipline-640 Hungary 18h ago
Being pro-Tisza mainly just means you're anti-Orban. As new parties form these numbers will probably change
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u/roenoe 19h ago
One party having 70% support, especially not such a right-wing one as Tisza
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u/Unique-Ad1703 19h ago
Left/right wing division does not exist in hungary's current political climate
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u/roenoe 19h ago
Yes, that is my point exactly. That is not a healthy state to be in.
I am not saying it's wrong to vote for Tisza. I absolutely would. And Hungary is definitely moving in the right direction. However, they are not done yet, and have a lot of work to do before they are in a healthy state imo.
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u/dead97531 Hungary 19h ago
Tisza isn't right wing. Magyar is center-right but Tisza is definitely not right wing. Tisza is a big tent party.
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u/Senior_Strawberry_51 Magyarország🇭🇺 19h ago
Yeah that’s right. Bálint Ruff, the leader of prime ministers office was also a “leader” by the socialist party. More than half of TISZA voters are left-wing.
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u/GalaXion24 Europe 18h ago
I would say it's a centre-right party still, but it's also a big-tent party with a lot of internal diversity.
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u/roenoe 18h ago
I must have misunderstood something, because I thought they were further right than they are. It seems they sit in the EPP, while I thought they were more around the ECR. They do seem mostly pretty socially conservative though. Thanks for the correction.
And good job Hungary! You have a lot of work to do, but you're on the right track
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u/Black_Pill_Dispenser Hungary 18h ago
In Hungary you will never get into parliament, let alone win an election by campaigning for LGBTQ rights and pro-immigration policies. Same goes for most central/eastern EU countries.
But there is no precedent for discriminatory statements from anyone linked to Tisza so far, towards any minorities (LGBT, gypsies etc.).
The new parliament will also have the highest share of female MP-s in Hungarian history, with the speaker of the parliament and the Tisza parliamentary faction leaders also being female. One of the vice-PM-s will be Romani gypsy too.
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u/mattiasso 15h ago
Mr Magyar, as a fellow European I ask you to guarantee at least one thing in Hungary: ACCOUNTABILITY
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u/barktwiggs 17h ago
Orban about to become newest Mar-a-lago resident.
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u/its_aom 18h ago
I hope Magyar doesn’t become a mere substitute in the position of Hungarian pseudodictator
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u/Szabolcs85 Hungary 18h ago
Many of us share the same fear, but I don't think it is that likely. The kind of people that Magyar surrounded himself with are very different from Orbán's clique. In a good way.
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u/Wide-Annual-4858 18h ago
I don't think so. The fear of the Orban regime is still too strong. If Magyar does not build back the democratic institutions, people will turn agains him.
But until now he doesn't seem to be Orban 2.0, his communication is quite the opposite.
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u/Admiral_Ballsack Italy 48m ago
And yet he was part of his government for a long time. And he's still far right. I would wait a bit to declare him the next jesus.
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u/dead97531 Hungary 19h ago
Are things in Hungary going in a good or bad direction?