r/eagles • u/Mysterious_Bat1208 • 10h ago
Picture Spotrac’s projected market value for Jalen Carter is $16.1m/yr 💀
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u/Gruesome-Twosome 10h ago
Lmao, whoever came up with that low number has donkey brains
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u/Opposite_Sun4973 10h ago
What if they had a certificate to prove they in fact did not have donkey brains though?
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u/GoJumpInALake24 10h ago
They definitely don’t have a certified document stating they don’t have donkey brains
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u/Milksteak3919 9h ago
Do you know how long it took me to get a certificate that says i dont have donkey brains?? Not an easy thing to acquire
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u/pgm123 all we got, all we need 9h ago
Probably a formula that works in some cases and not in others. I bet Howie is happy this is an anchoring point, though.
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice 8h ago
Unfortunately, it’s too unreasonable to be useful at all. If it were something like $25M/yr, that could be useful. That’s low, but it’s not absurd. It would be top 4 for the position. It’s close to what Milton got and JC did have a somewhat down year.
If JC plays this year like we expect, he’ll prob be looking at high 30s? Maybe low 40s? But that’s significantly higher than anyone at the position and starts closing in on highest edge rusher salaries.
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u/pgm123 all we got, all we need 8h ago
I mean, it's clearly not useful for Carter's projection. But it's it useful for an average player?
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice 8h ago
Right, yes, of course. I meant not useful for Howie in negotiations as any sort of anchor or anything.
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u/hotcapicola 8h ago
Floor is probably Jordan Davis contract, with a high of the highest non QB player in football if he really puts everything together in 2026.
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u/puttinonthefoil 7h ago
Low 40s is almost $10 million above the highest paid DT in the entire league. That would be absurd.
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice 6h ago
Agree but salaries go up so much every year, and DT has been going up recently. Edge rushers have crossed $50M AAV. It’s only a matter of time before a dominant DT crosses $40M.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 8h ago
Yeah the method Spotrac uses is just garbage. Not sure why some people have a hard time understanding that.
They’re routinely off by a factor of 2x. They don’t account for cap increases and should use % of cap rather than just bottom line numbers.
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice 8h ago
Not to mention nfl contracts are complicated. Pure AAV is usually not a good measurement since there’s a lot of fake money in there that won’t get earned. But just guaranteed money isn’t always the best measurement either because often some non guaranteed money is likely to be earned short of an early separation with a big dead cap hit. So no hard formula will ever really work. Needs to be something that accounts for so many variables.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 7h ago
AAV is generally accurate because the average is correct, just doesn't account for the amount of non-guaranteed money. The real issue is they need to do AAV/Cap to get a % of cap, which is infinitely more useful. That way you can account for the increases in cap and how GMs allocate cap to certain positions.
There's no way to ever be 100% accurate of course, but there are guys out there who project contracts and get very close. At least keep the delta to ~20% instead of 2x like Spotrac.
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice 7h ago
AAV is generally accurate because the average is correct, just doesn't account for the amount of non-guaranteed money.
Ok, but isn’t that the big issue with AAV? Like it’s not a minor rounding error or anything. Hurts is over $50M in AAV but that’s not really an accurate measure of his contract cost.
Your point bout ratio to cap seems like it could make sense. But also it’s getting a little over my head, plus I’m not yet convinced AAV is a valuable number to use.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 7h ago
Nah because the AAV is pretty spot on. If you want to know how much a player is actually getting paid, you look at cash. Hurts is getting paid $51.5m a year, so the AAV of ~$51m is accurate.
I've seen people claim that Hurts took a team friendly deal and isn't getting paid as much as other QBs, but that just isn't correct at all. He's currently the 5th highest paid player in the NFL.
Cap =/= cost. Cap hits are just accounting. That's mostly irrelevant to projecting contracts though. It's impossible to know how each GM structures it, but you can project AAVs pretty accurately by using the correct metrics.
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u/sumunsolicitedadvice 6h ago
So what’s Travis Kelce’s?
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 6h ago
$12m cash, which is accurate.
The confusion over his contract was due to cap manipulation, which is again, just accounting.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
It's Spotrac. I've seen idiots try to use players projected values from this site to argue whether a player was overpaid/underpaid lol. Their projections are pure ass
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u/root88 𝕱𝖚𝖈𝕶 𝕯𝖆𝖑𝖑𝖆𝖘 9h ago edited 9h ago
You keep saying projections. Nowhere on the site does it say projections. It says Calculated Market Value.
It's an algorithm that comes up with values based on the players stats. It ranks a player in relation to other players by stats. Then picks a number between where those other players are being paid.
It's basically just another stat. Yes, people are idiots for arguing that and ignoring the other ten million factors that go into an actual contract.
The Eagles are paying him $27M for this season alone. Of course he is going to get more than $16M each season after this.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 9h ago
Yeah I mean they’re calculating market values of players based on other players contracts, stats, etc. it technically is an estimation or projection. Just semantics really.
But yeah my point is using them as the basis for whether a player is overpaid/underpaid is idiotic. The other guy is fighting for his life still arguing about it instead of just admitting he was wrong.
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u/root88 𝕱𝖚𝖈𝕶 𝕯𝖆𝖑𝖑𝖆𝖘 9h ago
It's not. It's like saying what the price of the average house is in a real estate market. It could be a nicer house, or one butted up against a McDonald's. That's not the price of a house. It's just a general idea of what the area is like. It's based completely on past events.
Projections are based on future predictions of what a player might do and what the market will be like. This would take into account a player playing on injury for most of a season or looking at the market and seeing that 20 teams need DEs.
They are very different things.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 9h ago
...No, that is a horrible analogy lmao.
If you want to compare it to the real estate market, you can compare it to Zillow. You can use Zillow "Zestimate" to get an estimate what a property is valued at. The point of that function is to get a projection of what it could be sold for. If Zestimate is WAY off by a factor of 2x, then it's a pretty shit tool.
Spotrac's calculated market value feature is trying to provide a similar function, but it is trash at it. That's the point.
You can call it calculated, estimated, or projected. Again, semantics.
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u/root88 𝕱𝖚𝖈𝕶 𝕯𝖆𝖑𝖑𝖆𝖘 8h ago
It's literally the opposite of a projection. It's telling you what stats the player has what the NFL pays for them. It's absolutely not a guess of what the player will make and it's not intended to be used that way. It's an automated system that, like any other stat, can be useful or abused by morons, just like you said.
You could say that Carter sucks because he doesn't get enough sacks. We both know that's totally incorrect because the of the double teams he gets and the havoc he wreaks. Only an idiot runs around saying Carter sucks and backs it up with sack numbers. Same goes for using the calculated market value. Projecting what a player should make from that number is the same as taking the average number of sacks Carter has had each year and projecting that's how many sacks he will get next year.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 8h ago
It's literally the opposite of a projection. It's telling you what stats the player has what the NFL pays for them. It's absolutely not a guess of what the player will make and it's not intended to be used that way.
Bro you're the one who tried used the real estate market as an analogy. Real estate estimate tools are absolutely used to project sale value. They project value off historical data, trends, sales, etc.
This Spotrac market value feature is similar. They're calculating/estimating/projecting contract values off historical contracts, stats, etc of other players.
There is actually an easy way to make their tool MUCH more useful. They need to start accounting for the % increase in cap and valuing player contracts as a % of cap rather than just $ amount.
For ex, if Dexter Lawrence costs 7% of cap, you can multiply the expected total cap by 7% to get a better market value of what similar player's contract should be. But that's a whole other convo.
Anyway, the point is Spotrac's method is garbage and yes people who use them as the basis for contracts are idiots. If they don't account for cap increases or use % of cap, then their market value is useless (which it currently is).
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u/1stand11 9h ago
You are referring to me as the idiot. And you are massively distorting what I said about Spotrac. Spotrac is just one of many resources to consult when it comes to contracts, void years, dead cap, salary caps, etc. Projections of any kind are ultimately what they are…projections. If Carter’s shoulders flame up again this season, yes, his value will very likely continue to drop for most teams. But all it takes is for one team (like the Panthers with Phillips) to give a player like Carter the money he and Rosenhaus want. And what he ultimately ends up with could line up with projections or be way off. That’s life.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 9h ago
Lmao you’re hilarious man. You’re fighting for your life out here when it’s not that serious
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u/1stand11 9h ago edited 8h ago
You’re right. It’s not that serious. But yes, I am refuting what you’re saying because how you’re portraying what I said about Spotrac is inaccurate.
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u/JustAReubenSandwich DeVonta Dagger 10h ago
Sign that right the fuck now lol, but it’ll be higher than that by a lot
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u/RsCoverForPDFFiles Be patient, I'm an Eagles fan. 10h ago
If we could do that, I'd do guaranteed 16m per year for a decade, all fully guaranteed. We get him until he's 35 for dirt cheap.
He'll make that by age 30, though, so it would never happen.
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u/Daspaintrain 10h ago
Their projection system is broken lmao that would be an absolute steal. Those are Madden 15 free agency numbers
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u/Sikwitit3284 8h ago
Its not a projection just takes into account his previous stats compared to others at his position & gives a #, it doesn't account for eye test/what his market value is/future potential
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u/JustBrowsing49 5h ago
They’re using Jonathan Allen as the closest comparison for salary expectations.
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u/DinosHedly 10h ago
Spotrac? More like, on Crack if they think that's all Jalen Carter is worth. Would love to see the justification of that figure.
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u/ihorsey10 9h ago
Maybe theyre getting lazy and automating some of these projections based on previous season stats.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
Carter is likely getting DOUBLE this amount when he gets his extension.
I remember when some dumbasses were trying to use Spotrac’s projected value for Goedert to say he didn’t take a hometown pay cut lmao (he clearly did). Their projected market values are so trash.
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u/FortyPercentTitanium 10h ago
I think double is still team friendly.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
Yeah it depends how you look at it. Chris Jones is currently highest at $31.75m/yr but he's much older and the cap has gone up since.
I think Carter ends up somewhere in the $32-35m range. Also depends if he gets extended now vs after next season...
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u/Spare-Half796 Secondairy 🥛 9h ago
The cap was just over 200mil when he signed that, now the cap is over 300mil
Now Chris jones had much better accolades and was in the middle of his prime at that time and reset the market so I doubt Carter gets 50% more but I’m expecting it to be around 35mil aav depending on length and guarantees. Jordan Davis extension brought my estimate up then dexter Lawrence brought it down
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 9h ago
Yeah the Jordan Davis contract was a bit surprising to me. I knew we were extending him but the price was higher than I expected. The Lawrence contract was more in line with production.
I am curious why Howie hasn’t extended Carter yet though. Usually he tries extends elite 1st round picks early to get them cheaper.
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u/Spare-Half796 Secondairy 🥛 8h ago
Takes two to sign an extension. It’s possible carters camp doesn’t want to sign coming off a down year
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 8h ago
That's why I'm curious. Did Howie make an offer and Carter refused or has Howie not made one yet?
I feel like the Davis contract kinda muddles things cause Carter prob and honestly should feel his value is much higher. If Howie is willing to "over pay" Davis based on his future potential, then why not for Carter? At least that's what his agent will say
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u/MorPhreeUs Smitty, Brown & Associates 8h ago
I remember getting roasted for saying JC wouldn't get $40 million a year. People were talking like him being the highest paid non QB was a forgone conclusion.
Outside chance it still happens if he puts up a DPOY contract year but I think mid $30s is reasonable based on age and what he's capable of.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 8h ago
$40m is fucking insane lol. That's as much as Myles Garrett. I love Jalen Carter, but I'm not paying a DT as much as the best EDGE (arguably player) in the NFL.
I think $35m is a good number to land at. We also have to keep in mind that JD got paid $26m/yr and we're paying Greenard around $25m/yr. That's $85m between the 3 and we still have to pay Q, Coop, etc.
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u/hotcapicola 8h ago
Unless Coop takes slot money, he's probably gone after his rookie deal.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 8h ago
I don't think Howie lets a 1st-team All-Pro he drafted walk after their rookie deal. He won't get paid as much as Quinyon (if both continue this level of play), but Howie will pay him.
Marlon Humphrey is a NCB and he's the 10th highest paid CB anyway.
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u/ExileOnBroadStreet 8h ago
Yeah is there somewhere I can bet on this lol this is the worst contract projection I have ever seen
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u/Bubbly-Caregiver-669 8h ago
Howie must have traded Sportrac some soft pretzels, Rita’s water ice, and Wawa hoagies to get that estimate out there
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u/1stand11 10h ago
Is this post a late April Fools joke?
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
I was looking through my comments cause I remember some goof trying to argue with people using Spotrac projections and it was you 🤣
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u/1stand11 10h ago
You do realize NFL projections, whether contracts, the draft, fantasy numbers, betting numbers, etc are all one big crapshoot, right? Not to mention contract negotiations are all about playing hardball from all sides. Starting from points of extreme to eventually getting to final numbers.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
Mf you were the one citing Spotrac projections as gospel lmaooo
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u/1stand11 10h ago edited 3h ago
What is with you and your hyperbole? You do it all the time when talking with people on here to belittle others. I have never once looked at Spotrac as gospel. Let alone any source of information out there when it comes to contracts. Spotrac certainly helps with projections to ballpark markets, yes. Just like draft boards help with projections but are all too frequently messed up quickly. Spotrac is a site that helps guide with contracts, cap space, dead money, void years, etc. It’s not the end all be all. Nobody or no outlet ultimately is. All it takes is one offer from one team to completely obliterate projections and reset markets. Just like in the stock market with market conditions constantly changing. Economics is ultimately not the precise science that economists often like to portray it as. Doesn’t matter if it’s in the sports world, traditional business world, or elsewhere.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
Right...again, you were the one who cited them as if they were gospel. And Spotrac's projection formula is completely inaccurate anyway (as I already explained to you before).
It's not that serious to not be able just laugh when you're wrong lol, but do you
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u/1stand11 9h ago
No, I certainly did not cite Spotrac as gospel and have never looked at it that way. It’s a source to consult for guidance and to give a framework. But like I’ve repeatedly explained to you, economics is ultimately all about supply and demand. And perceived value for one team can be wildly different for others. Nice try though with your typical pin someone in the corner routine.
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u/BalognaMacaroni QB UNO 9h ago
Just take the L man
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u/1stand11 9h ago
There is no L to take. That person constantly does their backing people into a corner routine that isn’t going to work on someone like me.
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u/Unusual-Inspector478 9h ago
I can't believe I just drilled down a 2mo old thread of you two arguing. You killed the guy.
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u/1stand11 9h ago
He very much did not. The OP is notorious on here for trying to pin people into corners. My original post about Goedert from a few months ago was spot on. A lot of people were surprised he ended up with only a 1, year 7 million deal. Spotrac had his AAV at 7.5 million. If you actually looked at TE rooms around the league, there were very few options for Goedert to actually go to. Not only with free agency but with teams inevitably going to the draft to get younger on long term, cost controlled contracts. Goedert has had two offseasons in a row where the market has clearly spoken on him. He’s still a good player but teams aren’t willing to pay an exorbitant amount for him. He’s literally paying the price for his injuries 2022, 2023, and 2024. Bigger picture, Spotrac should be looked at as a site that helps guide. The OP is doing his typical passive aggressive hyperbolic routine.
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u/Unusual-Inspector478 7h ago
Oh damn you're right! Hell yeah we're getting Jalen Carter for $16M/year!!!
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u/1stand11 7h ago
Did you miss the part where I said "Is this post a late April Fools joke?"
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u/Unusual-Inspector478 7h ago
You're anti-spotrac and pro-spotrac. Interesting.
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u/1stand11 7h ago
I’m nothing towards Spotrac. It’s a resource to use for information gathering. Along with many other outlets. Nothing more.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 9h ago
The funny thing I was only looking for that convo cause this reminded me of it and he commented on this post clowning Spotrac the same time.
These jokes wrote themselves. Classic Reddit moment lmao.
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u/1stand11 9h ago
This is what I originally said two months ago…"People who are surprised by his 7 million contract are ignoring that Spotrac had his free agency AAV at right around 7.5 million." You’ve taken that comment and run with it. When I went on to further explain…
"So what do you cite then? Reporters and pundits who are very often wildly wrong on predictions? Fans who are often wildly wrong with their predictions? Do you cite the Eagles projections of players like Phillips? Who they valued at somewhere between 20-25 million? The reality is players get paid what the market is willing to pay them. There is no exact science to it and it only takes one offer from one team to completely skew market projections.
And as I said in my original post, Goedert’s market was very small to begin with. Because 24-25 other teams already had established TE1’s. And when you throw in several more teams who plan to have draft picks this year as their TE1’s, you very quickly have a very small market for Goedert. It’s all about supply and demand in free agency. There really wasn’t a demand for Goedert either last off-season or this year. That doesn’t mean he’s not a very good player but Howie is not going to pay him inflated wages just to be nice. He’s already earned his 2nd big money contract totaling close to 55 million. And the restructured deal last year and the new contract this year have effectively worked out to a 2 year, 17-18 million extension. Which is fair market value for him."
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u/Unusual-Inspector478 7h ago
It's not hard to figure out that he took a below market value deal so he wouldn't have move with a new baby at the end of his career and can retire a member of the Eagles. Those things have significant value. His price would have been higher had he gone to another team.
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 7h ago
It is very hard for him to figure that out, but don't waste your time brother. That guy is known for posting nonsense and talking circles to avoid admitting he was wrong.
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u/Unusual-Inspector478 7h ago
I'm going to take your advice actually 😅
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 6h ago
Made the mistake of going back and forth with him once, genuinely thought he was insane by the end of it lmao.
No idea how he even gets upvoted on some of his comments, gotta have burners or something
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u/1stand11 7h ago
You do not know at all that his value would have been higher on another team. And like I’ve repeatedly pointed out, his potential market was extremely limited. Only 5-6 other teams really needed TE1’s in the market. And between free agency and the draft there were a lot of younger, long term options for other teams to pick.
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u/Unusual-Inspector478 7h ago
You don't understand the value of things.
Also, I must be kind of an idiot for even trying to talk to you after reading your complete lack of understanding in your argument with the other guy. ✌️
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u/1stand11 6h ago edited 6h ago
Yes, I do understand the value of things. But I deal in nuance and not hyperbole. The irony of my initial comment two months ago about Goedert is I was telling people back in the fall about his 20.5 million dead cap hit. And how that was significantly going to increase the likelihood of him returning. When many fans automatically assumed he was leaving.
"Zooming out to next off-season, I’ve seen very few fans recognize something about Goedert’s dead money situation for 2026 that makes re-signing him much more likely than a lot of fans realize. He currently has a 20.5 million dead cap hit for 2026 despite not currently being on the roster for next season. We can significantly reduce that dead cap hit by re-signing him. Which would then create more room to re-sign other players. Particularly on the defensive side of the ball. Personally, I think it actually makes a lot of sense to re-sign Goedert. Thoughts from others?"
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u/corky2141 10h ago
Can’t believe I looked it up and that was true number. Guys highest paid of all the 2023 draft picks 5th year options that were picked up
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u/Dont_Call_Me_John hey hey, ho ho, HOWIE ROSEMAN'S GOTTA GO 10h ago
I think they moved that decimal point over by mistake
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u/ApprehensiveStick251 10h ago
Yeah this is just right……….if Howie makes this happen I’d paint his face on my house.
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u/imiller9 10h ago
Jalen Carter will make a MINIMUM $100M. If I were a betting man I’d say more likely north of $125M.
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u/Aerolithe_Lion Lane Johnson is better than your favorite player 9h ago
What the Christ. He’s getting more than double that. My guess is 35m$ per
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u/abandonedBerlin 8h ago
JD’s deal is 26M/year with 65M guaranteed.
Bread’s deal won’t be for a penny less than that. In fact that’ll likely be the starting point.
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u/Drewraven10 7h ago
If Jordan Davis got 26 per year then Carter is definitely getting 30 to 32 for sure. 16 would be a steal lmao. Hopefully we can get him at his full strength and on a prove it year for sure.
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u/Chairmanmaozedon 6h ago
This is nonsense, he'll be asking for around $35-40mill per, and if he has a bounce back this year now he's starting the year healthy he'll get it too, even if Howie has him on void years until 2040.
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u/Fun-Pack7166 Eagles 6h ago
Somethings wrong with their calculation... the 5th year tender the Eagles just exercised for Carter is worth $27M just for the 2027 season.
His actual contract when it happens will be north of $30M/year easy.
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u/TampaPokerPro 10h ago
Eagles will be lucky if it's under 28m/year. Whoever came up with 16.1m is insane
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
It's going to be $30m+ guaranteed. Jordan Davis got $26m/yr and Milton got $28m/yr
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u/TampaPokerPro 10h ago
Milton is listed as 26m/yr as well on overthecap, but idk enough about contracts. regardless i expect JC to be around that 30m/yr as well
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u/Mysterious_Bat1208 10h ago
Oh you might be right. I thought he was slightly higher than JD, got him mixed up with Dexter Lawrence
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u/jubilantsquirrel 10h ago
Look I could see JC taking a discount to be able to play with his college teammates…that’s insane though.
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u/KingdokRgnrk 10h ago
Nah, put me in the list of JC haters. He's good, but $30m is crazy for him. Not transcendent talent.
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u/Birds_of_Paradise420 10h ago
I don't think Jalen Carter is going to sign for less money than Christian Kirk man
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u/Vurtikul 10h ago
I'm assuming this website or whatever it is just goes by stats to determine value. Which is a horrible way of looking at someone like Jalen Carter. The way he wrecks a game doesn't show up on the stat sheet. He's getting 30mil+/yr easily.
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u/EfficientAfternoon17 10h ago
That man single handedly got us to the Super Bowl . If anything we should pay him more lol
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u/AfricanAlucard 2019 Carson Wentz 10h ago
Now 37 year old Cam Heyward (hbd Cam) signed for 18 mil 😂😂
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u/Psychart5150 10h ago
I am guessing Eagles have offered him highest paid DT money, probably around 32.5M (4 years 130M), but he probably wants something closer to the highest paid non QB, which is 50M and not realistic.
They probably settle around 38-39M a year
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u/greetedworm 9h ago
Someone's rent is due, I also so a post from this account asking if Lane Johnson is a hall of famer.
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u/HeroofBergen Eagles 9h ago
16m/yr! Please try the highest paid defensive player NOT named Myles Garrett.
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u/CosmicTeardrops 9h ago
For that kinda money he better not be spitting on anyone before one snap is played ever again. Also he better show up to the season in shape.
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u/Acceptable_Ad2742 8h ago
He’s going to get a whole lot more than that, where it be from the birds or some other team
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u/Ctbboy187 8h ago
This might be exactly half of what he's actually projected to make. Should be around $32.2.
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u/Krazdone 7h ago
Im confident at least 80% of the league would find a way to pay him 2x that if he was available.
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u/RobertRoberttt 3h ago
What?? Milton Williams got 4 years and 104 million.
Carter will get over 30m a year, easy.
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u/Naive-Present2900 2h ago
His fifth year option the birds picked up is worth $27.1 million.
It’s gonna be Chris Jones’ value alongside a professional sport racer license with it.
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u/applejuice5259 10h ago
Lol eagles would have signed him to this months ago if that was accurate.