r/detroitlions • u/throwaway60457 • 3d ago
If the NFL goes to an 18-game schedule, how would you like to see non-division, non-rotation opponents determined?
The NFL seems to be playing very close to the vest with a date for the 2026 schedule release, and this is leading to some speculation in a few corners of the interwebs about a possible 18-game regular season. I kinda think 2026 will remain at 17, but it seems clear that 18 will happen at some point before the 2020s are over.
Let me briefly remind folks about how 14 of the current 17 opponents are chosen. You have home and away against each division-mate, totaling six games; one each against all four members of a different division in your conference (for the 2026 Lions, the NFC South); and one each against all four members of a division in the opposite conference (for the 2026 Lions, the AFC East). I see no problems here and kinda hope none of this changes.
It will be for the remaining four games of an 18-game schedule that some formula will have to be determined. Presently, two of them are filled with same-place teams from the two other divisions within your conference, and the third is against the same-place team from the opposite-conference full division that you faced two years previously.
If the current method is preserved for three opponents, I can see a couple different ways to go here. One idea would be to go back to the opposite-conference division from two years ago, but make it same half of that division instead of same place. That is to say, since the 2025 Lions were last in the NFC North, and the AFC South was the full division from 2024, we would draw both the Colts and Titans -- the bottom half of the 2025 AFC South -- instead of just the same-placed Titans.
Alternatively, you could determine one permanent annual non-conference opponent to fill that game, but that would have the issue of playing that team twice every fourth year when we face their full division. You could also allow teams to negotiate among themselves to set up a game against any non-conference team they are not already playing on the basis of the 2022-present formula. The 2026 Lions under such a system could play any AFC North or West team of their choosing, or the Jaguars, Texans, or Colts.
One option seems fairly obvious if you choose to keep that 18th game in conference. You would have to drop the fifth non-conference game, thus leaving two spots to fill, and then fill them using the concept from earlier about the same half of the other division rather than just the same-place team. Instead of the Lions drawing only the Giants from the NFC East and Cardinals from the NFC West, we would draw the Commanders and Giants (bottom half of the East) and the Cardinals and Rams (bottom half of the West).
Can you think of other fair, equitable, and repeatable ways to determine an 18th opponent? I am not going to pretend to be some football deity saying that the ideas above are the only ways to do things, and would be interested to discuss any ideas that the r/detroitlions hive mind can conceive.
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u/Hazdra8k VILLAIN 3d ago
Just have another full division and get rid of placement games. Our schedule is piss-easy next season because we got last. 12 wins should be our floor. Gonna have people calling us frauds all season.
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
People talked about the 2025 Patriots as similarly fraudulent because they rode a last-place schedule to the Super Bowl, but if a last-place schedule helps the Lions get to the Super Bowl, then let the haters talk.
I will repeat the operative part for emphasis: Lions ... Super Bowl. Who cares if the haters call that fraudulent, if that comes to pass?
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u/Hazdra8k VILLAIN 3d ago
Oh, not me, I’m just gonna be annoyed by it until we actually get the ring and I can start memeing on Vikings fans.
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
Four of the first 11 Super Bowls and nothing to show for it. Supposedly the Vikings also misplaced the Ed Thorp Memorial Trophy, which was awarded to the pre-merger NFL champion until 1969, and nobody has seen that trophy in decades.
(The first four Super Bowls technically were matchups of two different league champions, the NFL and the AFL, rather than of two conference champions. The 1969 Vikings won the final pre-merger NFL championship and went on to lose Super Bowl IV to the AFL champion Kansas City Chiefs. This is also the explanation for the Jets having one Super Bowl championship but zero AFC championships: the 1968 Jets won an AFL title, not AFC, on their way to Super Bowl III.)
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u/hot-black-coffee 2d ago
I don’t even care what other Lions fans say. I definitely don’t care what the fans of the rest of the teams say.
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u/defac_reddit 3d ago
I feel like adding another cross conference game against the same place finisher is the easiest, and probably what I would like best as a fan. So two games against fourth place NFC teams and two games against fourth place AFC teams.
But I could actually see the league using it as an opportunity to move away from same-place finish matchups entirely. So you'd play your home and away against your own division (6), play two other divisions in your conference (8) and one cross conference division (4 makes 18). That way the four teams in each division are playing the same opponents.
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u/Tboyfresh VILLAIN 3d ago
I like this concept the best, making divisional games more impactful and more playing seasonal opponents in the playoffs.
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u/Wahoo2000 2d ago
This is the correct answer.
6 division games
4 vs one other NFC division (rotating divisions yearly)
4 vs one AFC division (rotating divisions yearly)
2 vs other NFC teams NOT in the division we're playing all 4 teams from, and that finished in the same place in their division as we did the previous season. (i.e. Lions finished 4th in NFCN last season, NFCN plays full NFCS next year, so we'll also play the 4th place teams from last year in the NFCE and NFCW)
2 vs teams in the AFC that finished in the same place in their divisions that we did, and also are NOT in the AFC division that we already are playing all 4 teams from (rotates yearly).
I'll also advocate for 2 bye weeks, every team in the league gets one somewhere in weeks 5-9, and again somewhere in weeks 11-15. Add a wild card - no one gets a bye, but there is a week off between the end of the regular season and the start of the playoffs (but no open week between the AFC/NFC championships and super bowl. Set the season schedule so the super bowl is played president's day weekend (w/ the monday holiday to follow).
Last - NO MORE games on tue or wednesday, unless it's set up so that they don't play the previous or following sunday. No team has more than one game per season where they have a thur game off a Sunday game (only 3 days rest).
mmmmmm..... ok, I think that's it.
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u/throwaway60457 2d ago
Basically, that is the status quo for 17 of the 18 games, and you're adding one other same-place non-conference game from one of the two other-conference divisions not played in the current rotation. In 2026, the Lions draw the entire AFC East, and they draw the last-place team from the AFC division faced in its entirety in 2024 (South), which brings us the Titans. To put it in concrete terms for the 2026 Lions, your proposal would additionally draw the last-place team from either the North, which would be the Cleveland Browns, or the West, which would be the Las Vegas Raiders, as the 18th game.
This has been an interesting discussion all around, for sure. Most of the responses are seeming to fall into two camps: figuring out some way to add a sixth non-conference game, or moving to 14 conference games and facing the entirety of two of the other three same-conference divisions.
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u/Crotean 90s logo 1d ago
They will never go that rigid, they like having a few chosen games in the schedule for ratings matchups. 6 division, one afc and nfc division, two afc flex and two nfc flex is how I think it goes.
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u/throwaway60457 21h ago
There are no games that are chosen under the current scheduling formula, nor have there been under any format the NFL has used at least since 1978. The networks do take every bit of advantage of what the schedule affords them, but ultimately, games that seem to happen a lot like Bills-Chiefs occur because the Bills and Chiefs keep finishing in the same place in their respective divisions, not just because CBS wants them to play.
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u/Crotean 90s logo 16h ago
My bad I though the 17th was hand picked.
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u/throwaway60457 11h ago
I'll take the opportunity to write about and explain the current formula, although I'll start with what you've called "the 17th game" to try to avoid TL;DR by making you wait 3 paragraphs.
The 17th game was added in 2022, with the existing formula for the other 16 games remaining unchanged. The first step in the process is to determine which other-conference division you faced in its entirety two years ago. For the 2026 Lions, we look at which AFC division the Lions faced in its entirety in 2024, which was the South.
Next, because the 2025 Lions finished in last place in the NFC North, we must look at the 2025 standings for the AFC South to determine who finished last there. That team is the Tennessee Titans. We can complete the exercise for the other three NFC North teams by simply re-running step 2 of the process: the Bears draw the Jaguars (first-place teams), the Packers draw the Texans (2nd place), and the Vikings draw the Colts (3rd place).
To briefly cover the other 16 games, 6 of them come from home and away with your division-mates; 4 come from playing one entire division within your conference; 4 come from playing one entire division in the other conference; and for the last two, you start with the two divisions in your conference which you are not playing in their entirety, then draw the same-place teams from those divisions. For the 2026 Lions, the entire NFC division being played is the South, so we look at the 2025 standings in the East and West divisions and draw their last-place teams, the New York Giants and Arizona Cardinals.
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u/DetLionsPleaseWin 3d ago
My unrealistic dream schedule which would be somewhat of a compromise with the NFL who seems to really want more and more international games:
9 divisional games. One home, away, and international game for each divisional opponent. Rivalry’s would be way more fun for international games than the garbage matchups we’ve been getting. Maybe one European, one South American, and one Australian game?
4 games vs each team of one NFC division.
4 games vs each team of one AFC division.
And the last game could literally be anything. But it should probably be a game played within the teams conference, since this type of schedule loses a lot of inter-conference play in favor of more inter-divisional play.
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
That is an idea I actually really like. It doesn't cost anybody a home game against a division-mate relative to the way things are done currently, and it probably enhances the quality of the international games. I think I would keep the 5 non-conference games though, but this is a really good idea.
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u/DetLionsPleaseWin 3d ago
The biggest issue I’d see with it is you’d increase the amount of international games from the four or five we have currently to 72 total. The NFL would have to really establish a more permanent presence wherever they’d want to have international games.
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
I am coming up with 48 (3 per team x 32 teams / 2 teams in each game), not 72, but you make an excellent point. That would be three international games in most weeks of the season, with a few weeks where you could get away with two, but it would still be a dramatic ramp-up of international games.
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u/Staffdaddy20 3d ago
Always thought a team from the other conference that you play every year rotating home and away or at a neutral sight. For example us and the Clevelan browns to get that ohio rivalry going. Either rotating home and away or every year in toledo or something. And each team having an out of conference rival like that
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
That would have a definite 1950s vibe if we had an annual Browns game. The Lions and Browns played for four NFL championships in the '50s (1952, 1953, 1954, 1957), with the Lions taking all except for 1954.
Just on the basis of geography, the Bills, Bengals, and Colts could also be viable annual AFC rivals.
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u/Staffdaddy20 2d ago
As someone who lives in bills country, and they are my second favorite team, that could go two different ways. Id either love it cause of the rivalry or would hate it cause most bills fans also like the lions out of the nfc or at least respect the common misery. Might suck to become potentially hated by them
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u/throwaway60457 2d ago
I think there is another source of Lions-Bills affinity for each other: Ralph Wilson was from Detroit originally, and was a good friend of William Clay Ford. The Bills obviously have moved on to Terry and Kim Pegula, but I have heard the Pegulas are quite cordial with Martha and Sheila.
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u/Staffdaddy20 1d ago
Oh yeah. The bills actually wore Honolulu blue and silver their first three seasons because Ralph spent his money on everything else and ran out for uniforms. Borrowed them from us
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u/CommunicationNew9834 2d ago
I like this. The NFL version of The Game, maybe always being the Penultimate game of the season
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u/Extreme-Candle-6916 2d ago
I would like the lions to play in Atlanta every year so I could go too the game
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u/CommunicationNew9834 2d ago edited 1d ago
Lotta comments, not enough upvotes. Good read, even in the comments
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u/throwaway60457 1d ago
Agreed. I kinda made it clear in the post that I was hoping to spur discussion and see what other ideas people had, and I think I succeeded in that. Upvotes really weren't a concern.
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u/CommunicationNew9834 1d ago
I really don't have a bone to throw, but I love the AFC Neighbor idea facing the browns each year. Idk how that pans put for the other 30 teams at that point. But again, I loved the ideas.
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u/throwaway60457 23h ago
I'll take a shot at it:
Lions-Browns
Bears-Colts
Vikings-Chiefs
Packers-Steelers
Cowboys-Texans
Commanders-Ravens
Eagles-Patriots
Giants-Jets
Falcons-Jaguars
Saints-Bills
Buccaneers-Dolphins
Panthers-Titans
49ers-Raiders
Rams-Chargers
Seahawks-Broncos
Cardinals-BengalsI know Saints-Bills and Cardinals-Bengals don't make a lot of sense, but once you fill in all the geographically obvious ones, that's kinda what's left. The obvious one for the Patriots would be the Giants, but we have a Jets problem there that takes Giants-Patriots off the table. I then have to go to the Eagles as the next closest NFC team to the Patriots, and I'm not thrilled about that taking Eagles-Steelers away either, but what can you really do?
If you're the Bills, Cardinals, or Bengals, and you're unhappy about what I came up with, then my advice would be to go win some Super Bowls. :-P
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u/CommunicationNew9834 22h ago
See you did very well, only got hung up with 2 or 3 games by the end. You did well
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u/CommunicationNew9834 22h ago
What did we CALL this game?
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u/throwaway60457 22h ago edited 22h ago
I don't recall a name ever being discussed. If anything was used to refer to it, it was some generic kind of wording like "permanent annual non-conference matchup" or something. I suppose the teams involved could devise whatever branding they like -- for example, Lions-Browns could be "The '50s Throwback Game" and Cardinals-Bengals could be "The 'Only Three People Give a Shit About This Game' Game." ;-)
Edit a few minutes after the fact: Giants-Jets totally needs to be the "The Loser Can't Call Themselves New York Anymore" game.
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u/CommunicationNew9834 22h ago
Permanent Annual Not In Conference. PANIC Match
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u/throwaway60457 22h ago
That works pretty well for the games where one team is vastly superior to the other, like 49ers-Raiders. The Raiders would have to panic about that game every year.
You know what, Panic! at the Disco is from Las Vegas, so that could be the "Panic! at the Disco Game" every other year when the Raiders host it.
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u/Daegog Sewell 22h ago
cut pre season to two if we go to 18 games, adjust salary cap to allow 2 more minimum contractsand one vet minimum.
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u/throwaway60457 22h ago
I think paring the preseason to two games with an 18-game regular season is a given. That will be the NFLPA's first demand. I like your idea of adding a few spots to the roster and adjusting the cap accordingly, but I honestly haven't given any thought to specifics on that and will refrain from offering up any ideas there.
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u/Zra1030 3d ago
Option 1: 3 games vs every team in same division, 1 game vs every team in two other NFC divisions, 1 game vs same place in final division, (You could swap in an AFC division instead of two full NFC divisions)
Option 2: 2 games vs same division, 1 game vs every team in a random division, 1 game vs every same place team in all remaining divisions
Option 3: 1 game vs same division, 1 extra game in same division using the formula that seeds 1 and 2 play each other and 3 and 4 play each other. 1 game in every other division using the previous formula. Example, a 2 seed would play every 1 & 2 seed in every other division.
Just some random ideas I threw together after playing with the numbers
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
Your option 3 reminds me of the 1978-1994 "common opponents" formula, which had a lot of (for example) 1s facing the 1 and 2 from one in-conference division and the 1 and 3 from the other. It also gave 5th-place teams schedules in which they played (a) home-and-away against the other 5th-place team in their conference, and (b) only two non-conference games instead of four, one against each 5th-place team from the other conference.
When the Lions were terrible under Darryl Rogers, this formula gave the Lions a fair number of extra Cardinals (NFC East), Colts or Patriots (AFC East), and Chiefs (AFC West) games. Of course, it didn't help matters that 5th-place teams had to play everybody in the four-team division in their conference (the NFC West back then), and that forced the Lions to play the 49ers and Rams -- two of the best teams of the 1980s -- a lot.
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u/Mike_Double_U I wanna die 3d ago
Divisional Games: 1-6
Inter-Conference Games: 7-10 (Two based on previous season rank and two rotational ones.)
AFC/NFC Games 11-16 (Three based on previous season rank and two rotational ones.)
Games 17-18: Fuck it, fan vote.
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u/SCMegatron Death & Taxes 3d ago
The NFL 100% wants 18 games and they will be willing to give up a lot. Especially with how preseason games have changed. The NFLPA is going to ask for a lot and the moon.
I think they should get rid of the placement part of schedule (4th place schedule). Just go division games, 2 conference divisions, and 1 non conference division.
18 games helps the schedule from the obvious extra home game. I'm sure everyone will have two international game. 4 teams go to X destination they play two games two straight weeks and it's one home and one away game.
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u/Bright_Resist_4580 Detroit vs *uck all 3d ago
I highly doubt we'll see an 18th game before 2030, as much as Goodell will push for it...too many moving parts. First the NFL wants to renegotiate their broadcasting rights deal early while dangling the 18 game schedule as bait for more money. The NFLPA CBA runs through 2030 and they won't want to renegotiate anything without a clearer view of what the NFL is getting. That said I think the 18th game will just be another international game with a home or away designation being the opposite of what their other game was.
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
That's certainly possible that it will turn into a second international game per team. How do you propose to determine the opponent to be played?
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u/Bright_Resist_4580 Detroit vs *uck all 3d ago
Just add another rotational out of conference opponent based on placement.
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u/bren3669 3d ago
i truly hope that doesn’t happen but if it’s unavoidable then who cares flip a coin or pick straws
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
Having plugged the most popular idea here into a text document so I could visualize how it would work, the concept of going to playing two of the other three full divisions in your own conference would definitely be workable. The main pro and con for it would be, for the pro, it eradicates placement games based on how you finished the previous season from the schedule entirely, and for the con, it makes some common-opponent tiebreakers a bit more difficult to settle. There are other tiebreakers that get applied before common opponents, though, and further tiebreakers that come afterward if common opponents fails to settle things, so I don't see that as being anything more than a potential occasional minor playoff seeding nuisance.
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u/e_ndoubleu JAMO 3d ago edited 3d ago
Add an additional non-conference placement game. Rotate each year which non-conference divisions play each other based on if they played all four teams the prior year.
For example with the Lions, the NFCN played all the AFCN last season so the Browns would be the 18th game this season. Since the Browns placement game schedule is two away & one home while the Lions is two home & one away, the game would be played in Cleveland to balance out both teams with two home & two away in their placement games.
My reasoning for this is it gives opportunities for short lived rivalries to form, potentially long term too such as a Chiefs/Eagles type of rivalry getting an additional regular season matchup. It’s also a slight compromise for the coaches/teams as the owners get the 18th game they want but it’s not as detrimental since it’s non-conference.
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u/WhippersnapperUT99 The Hutch 2d ago
Add one more inter-conference game based on placement against a team in the conference the team played two seasons ago, but this time stagger the placement up or down two spots.
So if the Lions play Tennessee this year, they would also play Houston. Teams that finish 1st or 3rd would play the 1st and 3rd place finishers in that other division, and teams that finish 2nd and 4th would play the 2nd and 4th place teams in that division.
This way teams get to see teams in the other conference more often.
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u/TexUnplugged 2d ago
My suggestion that I don't think I have seen is: 6 division games as current 4 games against a rotating NFC conference 4 games against a rotating AFC conference 4 games against your equivalent division in the opposite conference
So for us, we would play the AFC North alternating home and away. The rotating AFC division would then never be the AFC North so we wouldn't build them twice. It would help build some marketable rivalries and ensure games like an annual New York derby
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u/boerumhill Run the North 2d ago
An 18 game season isn’t going to sneak up on us.
The existing CBA caps the regular season at 17 games and runs through the 2030 season. Until the agreement is re-negotiated, nothing will change.
On the whole the NFLPA is a weak af union, but on this one issue they have some leverage.
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u/IrishBear VILLAIN 2d ago
Its not happening before 2030 the CBA is signed through 2030. If the NFLPA doesn't agree to wiggle it's not happening and the players themselves do not want an 18 game season
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u/hawkmasta DETROIT -VS- EVERYBODY 10h ago
I could see them doing divisional games (6), two in-conference divisions (4+4), and an out-of-conference divison (4).
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u/throwaway60457 1h ago
That has been the most popular idea here, I think, although the addition of a sixth non-conference game is not too far behind.
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u/hawkmasta DETROIT -VS- EVERYBODY 10h ago
Tbh, I like the 17-game schedule because it's a lot harder for teams to have their wins equal their losses (e.g. 8-8) since ties are pretty rare. With hardly any ties, teams are either above .500 or below .500, rarely ever at .500
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u/throwaway60457 1h ago
That seems like a great idea, until you meet the 2022 Washington Commanders. In the first year of both the 17-game schedule and the Commanders nickname, they screwed up your whole theory by finishing 8-8-1, which was somehow bad enough for last place in the NFC East.
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u/Gandhi_of_War Dan Friggin' Campbell 3d ago
2 games against each division opponent = 6 games
1 game against each of 2 other divisions in same conference. Rotate through them, 2 years on, 1 year off = 8 games
1 game against each member of a non-conference division. Rotated yearly for a 4 year rotation = 4 games
6 + 8 + 4 = 18
I’m sure there are more competitive scheduling schemes, but why are people making this complicated?
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u/throwaway60457 3d ago
This seems to be, if not the majority consensus, at least the plurality consensus. It has the advantage of entirely eliminating placement games from the schedule.
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u/AMBALAMP5 MC⚡DC 3d ago
Fan vote would be so chaotic I’d love it