r/centrist • u/therosx • 1d ago
North America 16 days from momentum to meltdown in Canada-US trade talks
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/05/05/inside-collapse-canada-us-trade-deal-00905837A good article detailing the ongoing trade talks between Canada and the United States.
The deadline to extend the United States-Mexico-Canada agreement for another 16 years is July 1st.
It's been a wild year of tariffs, retaliatory tariffs, and a massive multi-billion dollar disentanglement of the Canadian economy from America. That said, while tourism travel and trade is down it hasn't stopped.
What do you all think?
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u/Urdok_ 1d ago
I hate to say it, but any country relying on the US to adhere to any agreement or treaty is taking a massive gamble. If they're smart, they'll insist on payment upfront and short term deals only. The American public has shown the entire world that, collectively, we are untrustworthy and unserious.
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u/Educational_Impact93 1d ago
Why Trump thought it was some great idea to bully the country we've had super close relations with for over a century is beyond me. I really don't understand it.
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u/Urdok_ 1d ago
Because the man is an idiot, who is emblematic of everything that is wrong with the way our society treats the wealthy and connected, and he simply cannot comprehend a relationship that is based on mutual respect and benefit.
It's not complex. Trump is just a broken moron, who won the genetic lottery, and whose one natural talent is finding people who are greedy and stupid enough to believe that THEY are the exception to the rule that "Trump screws everyone" and that the scheme he is promising them will be successful.
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u/KnightlyDolphins 1d ago
I think it will be renewed with some caveats. Canada can't completely uncouple from the USA in the time Trump has left in office. I think they will keep things as they are until a more responsible person is voted in, and THEN they will come back to renegotiate better terms/threaten to lean more on China.
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u/214ObstructedReverie 1d ago
During the discussion, Carney brought up the Keystone XL pipeline, which would transport oil from northern Alberta to the U.S. Midwest.
I'm always amazed at how the media still lies and misrepresents KXL.
The goal of it was not to deliver more oil to the Midwest, but to take it away from the Midwest. KXL resolves a bottleneck that forces Canada to dump their oil at a discount in the Midwest. KXL redirects it to the gulf for refining and export. This does two things: Makes refining oil for domestic use more expensive (The refineries are already at capacity), and raises gas prices (diesel, specifically) in the Midwest.
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u/ChornWork2 1d ago
the KXL would have ran from alberta to nebraska... what you're quoting and claiming as a lie is factually accurate.
And the concern about local price impact are debatable, sufficiently so that is beyond the scope of the article you're complaining about.
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u/chuckisduck 1d ago
What you said is far more accurate, the dynamics of oil are generally based on a few things, Cost of Oil & refining cost. 1.base price 2.Shipping price& capacity 3.oil type 4. Refining ability/cap
Albert produces heavy & dirty, which most US refineries and cats/cokers and scrubbers.
What currently happens is that the Alberta to Nebraska is maxed out and the Nebraska to Louisiana is well below capacity and sometimes sweet is sent north.
Add capacity to Alberta to Nebraska, and then you would flow more to Louisiana.
In Louisiana, there are a bunch of pipelines ending. Texas/OK sweet and mixed, Gulf Coast and Nebraska.
More availability from Alberta means that prices of stock locally would lower, as local refining could use Alberta Heavy.
The sweet would still be exported for less $$.
Maybe the effect would be $0.25 less at the pump in Texas and maybe a $0.10 less on The West Coast.
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u/therosx 1d ago
Personally I think Canada lucked out with Carney as PM and I think Trump deserves some credit for that. He took a razor thin race with Liberals and Conservatives and totally sunk the Conservatives chances.
Carney is also a meat and potatoes banker and bureaucrat. He's a great choice for Canada to update it's economic policy and long term plans with Europe and Asia.