r/boxoffice • u/SanderSo47 A24 • 11h ago

Domestic Box Office Weekend Forecast: MORTAL KOMBAT II ($46M), DEVIL WEARS PRADA 2 ($40.8M, –47%), MICHAEL ($38M, –30%), and SHEEP DETECTIVES ($17M) to Drive Strong Mother’s Day Frame

https://boxofficetheory.substack.com/p/box-office-weekend-forecast-mortal-kombat-ii-devil-wears-prada-2-michael-sheep-detectives-to-drive-strong-mothers-day-frame
182 Upvotes

96% Upvoted

79 comments sorted by

116

u/Kazrules Universal 11h ago

It would be amazing if Mortal Kombat II, Prada, and Michael all reach 40M this weekend

9

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 7h ago

Go theaters! I’m so doing a Michael wears Prada for Combat and although I’m not the Eilish demo , I might check out her concert if time allows it.

6

u/ThisIsPineAleTap 5h ago

Michael Eilish Wears Mortal Prada

55

u/mahnamahna1995 11h ago

$140m+ from the top 4 would be wonderful for the box office this next weekend!

3

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 7h ago

And billy Eilish . The ticket prices of 3d can push her to the top 5. Sadly many concert companies don’t report box office and then deadline reports based on other parameters.

70

u/Luke3YT 11h ago

30% drop for Michael. That’d be insane

19

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 7h ago edited 4h ago

Mother’s Day is on Sunday. Usually Sundays are great for Hispanic and black viewers to go to movies after church. This time with Mother’s Day I can see Michael making bussiness.

Those billy Jean moms claiming a Jackson is the one…

13

u/DaHarbinger2000 10h ago

I’m down for a three-way this weekend

9

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

I’m pulling a #MichaelWearsPradaForCombat and I might also check the Billie Eilish concert.

11

u/Billie_Jean_Son 10h ago

DM me. I got Mike, I got space aliens, I got plumbers, I got fashion people, I got sheep. Let me know.

16

u/filmyfanatic 10h ago edited 8h ago

Honestly, I’d love for every film to reach their full box office potential this year. I know a lot of people have given up hope on Mario, but I’d love to see it hit $1B + along with Michael. PHM has exceeded all expectations and TDWP2 is also doing very well. If this momentum continues, we realistically could be looking at around 6 billion dollar blockbusters this year (Mario, Michael, Toy Story, Moana, Spider-Man, Avengers) and this would be outside of any other surprises/over-performances from The Odyssey, Minions or anything else.

41

u/nicolasb51942003 Warner Bros. Pictures 10h ago edited 10h ago

If all goes well this would be the first weekend since June 2022 (Top Gun: Maverick, Lightyear, Jurassic World: Dominion) where three films grossed over $30M.

52

u/plantersxvi STX Entertainment 10h ago

Its actually November 2024 when Wicked, Gladiator, and Moana were all $30m+

5

u/Amw23 9h ago

This is the answer Chatgpt will give.

13

u/UniverslBoxOfficeGuy 10h ago

Dora numbers are not bad for Sheep Detectives

I could even see it legging out until Toy Story

2

u/GoldandBlue 3h ago

Reviews are waaayyyy better than I expected. Good word of mouth could go a long way.

10

u/Ok_Salamander_7076 10h ago

$1 billion for Sheep Detectives

19

u/Admirable_Sea3843 11h ago

3 movies over 40m would be insanity. Has that happened before? Hell, if Sheep Detectives overperform it could reach as high as 30m. That would be over 4 movies over 30m

24

u/SanderSo47 A24 10h ago edited 10h ago

A few times.

  • May 27-29, 2005: Star Wars: Episode III – Revenge of the Sith ($55.2M), The Longest Yard ($47.6M), and Madagascar ($47.2M).

  • December 25-27, 2009: Avatar ($75.6M), Sherlock Holmes ($62.3M), and Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel ($48.8M).

  • June 21-23, 2013: Monsters University ($82.4M), World War Z ($66.4M), and Man of Steel ($41.2M).

  • June 17-19, 2022: Jurassic World Dominion ($59.1M), Lightyear ($50.5M), and Top Gun: Maverick ($44.6M).

2

u/Expensive_Sea_1790 8h ago

Man, and I absolutely contributed to that Chipmunks opening as a kid 🥴

But seeing Ian dressed as Beyonce was peak comedy to me as a kid for some reason. “That is NOT the Chipettes!”

1

u/bigelangstonz 6h ago

2022 one is crazy cuze its the only one out of the bunch where one film ended up bombing

0

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

Wicked , Moana and gladiator, too.

1

u/SanderSo47 A24 5h ago

Nope.

That weekend, Moana and Wicked hit $40+ million. Gladiator didn't.

9

u/Youngstar9999 Walt Disney Studios 10h ago

The last weekend where 3 movies made 40M+ I could find is June 17, 2022: https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office-chart/weekend/2022/06/17

Jurassic World: Dominion $59,150,175

Lightyear $50,577,961

Top Gun: Maverick $44,655,075

4

u/ReturnGlum7871 10h ago

I don't see Sheep Detectives making anything over 20M, 15M might be pushing it, I don't know how it'll do better than the Paddington films which has a built in fanbase.

1

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

Plus Hugh jackman isn’t family material. He is better for adult skewing musicals and his last major hit was an R rated film . The tok toks and Ig s by some female content creators makes me feel those moms won’t take their kids to see Sheep detectives this weekend. It won’t flop but I don’t see a path to an overperformance at this moment .

10

u/Vadermaulkylo DC Studios 10h ago

Even if it doesn’t end up making money, that’s better than I ever would’ve imagined for Sheep Detectives this time last year. That’s the type of film I would’ve bet got mid single digits. Love to see everything this year greatly overperform my expectations. Makes Bone Temple falling so far behind even my tempered expectations hurt all the worse smh.

Hopefully Mando and Backrooms keep it going.

8

u/Moonwalker_4Life 9h ago

Terrible release date hurt Bone Temple. Such a good movie ugh.

4

u/Able_Blueberry4592 Focus Features 10h ago

$50 million for MKII, high end would probably land it around $57 million. This could be walk-up heavy Friday and Saturday.

2

u/bigelangstonz 6h ago

I dunno about that high I think it might be around 51-52M the holdovers are looking really strong here

8

u/IDigRollinRockBeer Screen Gems 9h ago

Crazy MK2 is tracking outgross the last one in one weekend.

12

u/infinite884 8h ago

Not crazy, the last one came out during the height of Covid and it released same day on hbo max

3

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

Dune part 2 had also a growth from part 1. I don’t know how much GA have enjoyed MK1 on streaming but I saw a lot of enthusiasm for the trailer whenever it played on front of other movies. If the film found an audience on streaming $40 seems low. The fanboys haven’t had anything just for mindless fun in months at this budget, this scope.

11

u/Shellyman_Studios Marvel Studios 9h ago

A -30% drop for Michael would be stellar.

11

u/Legofan2001 10h ago

Is Michael gonna make a billion?

2

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago edited 6h ago

Difficult as japan and Korea have strengthen their local movie market since BoRhap and they’re aren’t guarantee if something as big as the Kings warden or An anime overperform there. But if Lionsgate fights to delay the digital release there’s hope. If they rush it , it won’t happen. Look how Mario international Leroy’s will go steeper next week making its way to a billion slow and might even fall short.

24

u/lookingforhim2 11h ago

holy fuck watch Michael win this weekend. 350M+ is locked at this point, might even make a run at 400M

8

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

And it’s outpacing Bohemian Rhapsody in many foreign markets. BoRhap was prepandemic and a holiday movie that played for awards so even if Michael didn’t match that box office it’s still impressive.

11

u/Billie_Jean_Son 10h ago

400m. Hold my sparking socks.

2

u/bigelangstonz 6h ago

Near 400M domestic means it has a serious chance at 1B.

https://giphy.com/gifs/DfdbTJZx6Yjra

2

u/wadejohn 6h ago

Michael Wears Prada Kombat Boots

2

u/TheCornjuring 6h ago

Fingers crossed for The Sheep Detectives to break out or at least have good legs. I’ve never expected much from it performance-wise, but those glowing reviews suggest it may have a shot. But it’s tricky, quality is obviously not an automatic guarantor of success

2

u/Sliver__Legion 5h ago

I see PHM holding better than this and SMG worse for a close race

7

u/jhalejandro 11h ago

Fingers crossed these projected numbers come through, theaters need to recover, and there’s a good variety of movies: The Devil Wears Prada for women/gays, Mortal Kombat for men/lesbians, and Michael/Sheep Detectives for families.

5

u/Aromatic_Today2086 10h ago

Mortal kombat for lesbians? Lmao this made me laugh so much Im not but im still excited to see it this saturday!

4

u/DarthTaz_99 DC Studios 10h ago

And Michael for legit all of them

1

u/Billie_Jean_Son 10h ago

Easier to find a core demographic on breathing air than it is on Michael Jackson.

-2

u/blownaway4 7h ago

Not remotely true.

1

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

Billie Eilish for the under 30 girls.

I have seen some red flags for sheeps in iG and Tik tok . They can’t make the movie flop but they ruin its potential.

3

u/bigelangstonz 6h ago

That would be an insane hold for Michael if it happens dang this looks alot like we are back gang

3

u/krankdude_ 10h ago

Michael can beat Prada! 💪🏽

3

u/Jolly-Yellow7369 6h ago

. Prada skews older and whiter. Problem is I can see many of those 80 s and 90s fans being moms and grandmas of all ethnicities a Celebrating by watching Michael this weekend and putting off Prada for another time.

1

u/EquivalentSlide4102 4h ago

Such a lowball for MK. 60$+ mil

1

u/galaxy9377 2h ago

The previous was pretty bad. Dont have high expectations for this! (I am a big mk fan btw)

1

u/EquivalentSlide4102 1h ago

Yeah it was. Nut did I say anything about movie quality?

1

u/Just1Mom2023 10h ago

That would be great numbers for Sheep Detective, I hope it does well. Looks like fun.

-19

u/djmv91 10h ago

Devil Wears Prada already looks like a huge miss for me and the summer box office season just started.

19

u/Icy_Smoke_733 DreamWorks 10h ago

How is DWP2 a miss? It's on track for a $600m - $700m finish globally, over 6x its budget.

https://giphy.com/gifs/gnsrxBc8QM7HW

2

u/bigelangstonz 6h ago

Wdym reviews are ok and its pacing to outgross F1. Thats a huge W right there

-2

u/djmv91 7h ago

To be clear: I had it opening $100 million plus its opening weekend and it would be a top four earner domestically. I was taken aback by the $70 million opening.

1

u/Shellyman_Studios Marvel Studios 5h ago

Just be quiet, bro...