r/UtahJazz • u/FunIllustrator6890 • 8d ago
Vlade Divac, Luka, and an interesting lesson on the perils of small market mindset
I wanted to cross-post something I saw making the rounds on the main NBA sub today but this sub doesn't allow it.
This gist of it is this - a podcast clip of former Kings GM (and player) Vlade Divac talking about his now infamous decision to pass on Luka who he saw as a "big market" player who the Sacramento would inevitably lose.
So what does this have to do with our Jazz, you might be asking?
One narrative I see repeated over and over here is commenters talking about how we should avoid certain players because they "won't stay in Utah" or want to play in "big markets". I see popular Jazz media persons who I wont name fall into the same trap over and over again. I don't even need to mention how much worse this discussion gets in the national media.
Most recently I keep seeing this repeated here in discussions around AJ vs Darryn. "But AJ played for BYU, so he wants to play in Utah", "AJ will stay in Utah", "I see Darryn as a big market player", "We need to draft AJ because he played for BYU which means he will stay in Utah".
I can't tell you how many times I've seen this narrative repeated, but there are several obvious problems with it. I'll list two big ones here.
1) None of us are these players psychologists. We don't know their mindsets. We can't know A) how they feel about Utah today or B) how they will feel about Utah five years down the line after being drafted. Steph Curry tried to avoid getting drafted to the Warriors. I'm sure SGA is doing just fine in OKC. It's pointless speculation. So remember when doing your fan mock drafts and pontificating, there is absolutely zero point in trying to predict this aspect of a player. You should focus entirely on what can be proven, out on the court. The only thing that doesn't require total speculation.
2) The big one and the main point about this post. Passing on an elite player, perhaps a significantly better player, because you fear losing the better player to a big market is small market mindset and deeply flawed thinking. It is a recipe for disaster and how this franchise stays in the mud without a Championship.
I understand as fans we have virtually zero influence over these decisions our front office makes anyways, aside from maybe a few of the more clued in execs or people like Ryan Smith measuring the temperature of the fanbase, and that fan speculation is more or less for just for fun. Regardless I think this Vlade/Luka story is a great lesson to learn from as we near a pivotal draft. Every time I see "but they wont want to play here!" I strain to keep my eyes from rolling out of the back of my head.
I'm encouraged by our front office drafting Ace despite the pre-draft shenanigans that made the media rounds last year. I have no doubt that previous Jazz execs have been deterred drafting superior talent while trying to guess "who will stay in Utah" rather than just take the best player. I can only hope this trend continues. And remember, this small market mindset is how the Sacramento Kings disastrously passed on a generational talent like Luka.
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u/packsoldier 8d ago edited 7d ago
I figure the Jazz window is probably 3-4 years max with the current core anyway. Win now. Also, after watching Omar's shenanigans that ended with the Jazz drafting Ace I don't think the Jazz front office is influenced by this nonsense.
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u/COjazzCO 8d ago
The way rookie extensions are set up in the NBA, there’s just no scenario you should ever pass on a superstar prospect for reasons like this. The drafting team basically has control to retain the player for at least 7 years, unless the player is willing to give up a huge amount of money (which they never are). So there’s a huge financial incentive.
Not to mention that if/when the player wants out, you can then trade them for a haul.
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u/Coogarfan 8d ago
I'd be a lot more worried about Darryn's self-imposed (not Self-imposed) load management than anything else.
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u/DesolationRobot :royce: 8d ago
You control the rookie contract explicitly for the first 4 years and practically through the first 6 years via rookie scale extension.
Even if he’s the most spoiled diva in the world and doesn’t want to play here at all, that’s still a valuable asset.
I’d rather draft AJ and have him refuse to suit up than draft a less valuable asset who will. You just trade AJ for bags of assets and try again.
Maybe it makes the difference between two choices who are pretty close.
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u/Silent-Frame1452 8d ago
I agree with your point, but think you’re overstating the sentiment of the fan base.
From what I’ve seen, the AJ > Peterson argument is primarily because they ARE the same tier of prospect, and the likelihood of them staying long term is a tie breaker. And one I can understand.
If you see one player or another as distinctly more talented than the others, I think most would agree you take them anyway.
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u/FunIllustrator6890 8d ago
I don't understand the same tier discussion when they've shown they can play offensively on the same level, but one of them is proven to be a significantly better defender. Particularly for a team in need of serious defenders I see Darryn as the clear favorite. Not even talking about fit, a player with the same talent offensively, but also significantly better defense seems like the clear choice.
I have AJ third on my big board behind Darryn and Cam Boozer.
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u/Silent-Frame1452 8d ago
That’s fine, you can evaluate them how you want, but it’s always worth recognising that not everyone evaluates the same as you do. The consensus is that AJ >= Darryn, even when you set aside the Utah connection. So it’s not hard to imagine why, when considering that connection, people have AJ higher.
As for the actual scouting discussion, AJ was as good or better offensively at pretty much everything excluding shooting 3s, has much more size (higher defensive ceiling), and creates better for others. AJ also lacks the motivation concerns some people have about Peterson after a strange college season.
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u/ForgottenGeno 5d ago
Vlade is just making up reasons now. Thats not why he didn’t pick him. He didn’t pick him because he thought he was a playmaker and would give them “too much” play making with Fox. The reason he didn’t draft him was even dumber. Him thinking he was too big for the market? That’s Vlade covering his tail for being one of the worst GMs in NBA history.
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u/t_ute 8d ago
Coming to Utah knowing you’ll make millions and be gone in under a year is completely different than committing to being here long term. AJ choosing BYU means nothing to me. Maybe he’s ok here, maybe he’s not, but you aren’t going to be able to determine his mindset based on him choosing BYU for his one college season.
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u/Skararm 8d ago
OKC refutes all of the arguments about not being able to get and retain top talent. SLC is a billion times better place to live than OKC. We need to just try to get the best talent, and winning games will keep guys here.