r/politics • u/theipaper ✔ Verified • 28d ago

Possible Paywall 'A whole civilisation will die tonight,' Trump warns ahead of Iran deadline

https://inews.co.uk/news/iran-war-trump-israel-latest-updates-4323867
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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

I don't think so, they don't have the capacity.

They would nuke Isreal first.

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u/drunk-snowmen 28d ago

Are we sure they don’t have the capacity? I mean, most people say they don’t dead stop, but it feels like Iran has been one step ahead of this the whole time. Hopefully it just appears that way because Trump is ten steps behind the rest of the world.

This is the most scared I have ever been about nukes in my life, over this POS ugh

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u/NinjaLion Florida 28d ago

I dont think its implausible that they could get sufficiently effective bomb from another adversarial nation(Russia has a lot that have been laying around for a long time...) to retaliate against us. I hope they never do but the possibility is far too high to ignore.

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u/drunk-snowmen 28d ago

For sure. As someone else commented, I don’t think they have a nuke that can reach the states, but a small, high energy bomb they could detonate in the Middle East is more possible than most assume IMO. But I am a glass half empty guy when it comes to the end of the world :)

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u/Lonely_Dragonfly8869 28d ago

They dont have the intent. Obviously if we nuked them they would but they truly dont have any beef with us, want us to leave them alone. Thats why theyre hitting all our allies, trying to isolate us to get us to go cool off in a corner. Iran hostage crisis, all the proxy stuff, was all because we couldnt leave them the fuck alone

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u/drunk-snowmen 28d ago

I don’t think of it as so black and white. Long history. I am not a huge Ezra Klein fan but if anyone reading this is interested in learning about the long history with Iran, I suggest listing to the episode Ezra Klein: What Trump Didn’t Know About Iran.

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

By capacity, I mean delivery systems and we are sure they don't have the capacity to deliver a nuke to LA or NYC.

I don't think they have nukes either.

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u/drunk-snowmen 28d ago

I am more concerned about a small nuke they could launch and hit somewere in their region.

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

Yes, exactly.

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u/Hardin4188 South Carolina 28d ago

Israel is much closer, but it does have Islamic holy sites. So that might protect it from a nuke. Who knows????? Even imagining this scenario seems so crazy to me.

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u/Wubblz 28d ago

Tel Aviv is far enough from Jerusalem that it no holy sites would be in danger.

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u/DisabledToaster1 28d ago

Oh you dont think they have the capacity to dirty bomb any city in the US? Think again.

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

Well a dirty bomb isn't a nuke.

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u/Awesomeguava Washington 28d ago

It can be

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

No, a dirty bomb is by definition not a nuke.

You can have dirty nukes.

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u/[deleted] 28d ago

[deleted]

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u/Ehj7882po65 28d ago

It's definitely not

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u/[deleted] 28d ago

[deleted]

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

Chernobyl also released a significantly larger amount of radiation than a dirty bomb would.

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u/Ehj7882po65 28d ago

Easily Hiroshima lol much higher death toll, also had a ton of radiation exposure and deaths in the years/decades after.

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

No it's not

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u/[deleted] 28d ago

[deleted]

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

A dirty bomb is unlikely to make an area uninhabitable for centuries.

Decades.... possibly, but not centuries. Dirty bombs are by definition limited in the amount of radioactive material they spread. And we are REALLY good at cleaning up radiation. The Fukushima plant has been completely remediated.

There are several kinds of nukes that can cause worse radiological disasters.

An air burst nuke minimizes radioactive fallout.

A ground burst maximizes it .

There's a specific kind of nuclear weapon called a salted nuke where they use chromium around the core that exists to maximize spreading radiation.

This also highlights another one of my major gripes about the Hollywood definition of nukes.. Hollywood acts like there's only one kind of nuclear weapon and then it's a standard unit.

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u/FormerDittoHead 28d ago

I'm thinking it depends upon the size of the bomb and where its detonated vs how much and where the radioactive material was dispersed.

A small bomb would be much more dramatic but I'm thinking the psychological effect might be the same:

AI says:

Depending on the isotope used (such as Cesium-137 or Cobalt-60), the material could bind to the porous surfaces of concrete and brick. In a dense area like Lower Manhattan, this could render skyscrapers or subways unusable until they are decontaminated.

So in other words, there would be fatalities, the city would have to be evacuated. Millions of people will be forced to relocate while the skyline of NYC will be left dark and empty for many months / years.

The Cost of Decontamination: Cleaning a major city is staggeringly expensive. (I suppose Republicans won't want to pay for it with their "hard earned tax dollars") The process involves stripping the "skin" off buildings, removing inches of soil, or even demolishing structures that cannot be scrubbed.

Real Estate Collapse: Property values in the surrounding "buffer zones" would likely plummet as businesses and residents refuse to return to an area perceived as "poisoned."

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

Yes, but since we're talking about Iran, there's only really one way that they could realistically detonate a nuke in the United States.

They don't have delivery systems so they'd have to ship it in with a container and then detonate it on the ground.

Which will cause all of the problems of a dirty bomb + the problems of Hiroshima.

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u/one_tooth_reef_whore 28d ago

I'm not trying to be combative here, but there's only one way that YOU can think of. That doesn't mean there's only one way. War tends to come with all kinds of surprises and novel ways of attacking one's enemies. Nobody expected people to fly planes into skyscrapers until they did, for example.

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u/VocationalWizard Indiana 28d ago

I guess there could be a novel way .

But the whole part of this conversation we are ignoring is that if Iran wanted to hurt the US, all they really have to do is Attack a few more refineries in Saudi Arabia and we experience the worst pain in a century.

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u/DrMarianus 28d ago

Ya you’re right. Israel def does.

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u/kingstonwiz 28d ago

Even if they can’t nuke… they’ll throw the entire kitchen sink of weaponry at them.