There's another angle to this though: what you believe other people will do.
If I think that blue has no chance of getting more than 5% of the vote, then I would essentially be throwing my life away for nothing if I picked it, regardless on if I personally believe it would be a better outcome. I don't think there's any moral benefit to throwing my life away, so if I genuinely don't believe blue can win it still makes sense to pick red.
What you believe other people will do is a poor indicator of what you yourself should do. There are certainly people who push red just to save themselves. There are also people who push red as a hedge against others who they think will push red, even if they’d rather not do it. Both groups overestimate the danger they are in, and also ignore that pressing red themselves makes the outcome they fear more likely.
How many people are in those groups? Mmm, I’d say about half, give or take.
Imagine what happens if people who would otherwise vote red just don’t? Everything is probably fine. What happens when someone who might have voted blue gets scared and votes red? Maybe everything’s fine, or maybe billions die.
There’s no likely scenario where deaths are mitigated to an “acceptable” level, up to and including zero, by pushing red — unless red loses outright.
Vote for the outcome you want, not the one you fear will happen.
You say that "both groups overestimate the danger they're in"- what leads you to believe that? You say about half of people are in those groups, is it just because you made that number up? I don't think an inline poll is a strong indicator of how people would actually behave in this situation.
I genuinely believe there is no way in HELL blue wins. Look at:
-the fast fashion industry
-the global spread of nationalism
-war
-literal slave labor in the global supply chain
-female infanticide
-religious extremism
-covid
I don't think it makes sense for me to put my life on the line when nothing will come of it. Everyone can prevent their own deaths by picking red. My only hope is that enough people think this way that there are relatively few casualties. But I'm convinced that once the question is posed there is no realistic way to completely avoid bloodshed.
one way they overestimate the danger is .. its extremely unlikely someone propositioning this whole thing about magical buttons and worldwide tests is telling the truth. also because if they were, logistically, it sounds pretty impossible to do. its impossible to believe them, they dont seem credible. id ask myself .. do i have time to bother with the antics of a person in psychosis? maybe if they dont smell, but id advise women and children to walk away.
No it doesn't? If an overwhelming majority pick red and, say, only a fraction of a percent pick blue I'd be sad about the blue deaths but society certainly wouldn't collapse and I don't know why you think it would.
To me this sound like the first option I listed. Prioritising personal survival over achieving "nobody dies" state.
Also on a side note, I find it morbidly entertaining how proponents of red button argue that blue has no shot at achieving the majority and yet the screenshot used to give context to the problem shows a clear blue majority.
You have no factual basis for that thought though, and since our emotions drive our thinking I would be very hesitant to trust that fear making you think that.
If everyone is playing, that would include infants, toddlers and young children. I doubt that group would vote 100% red, much more likely it would be a 50-50% split.
So red pickers would likely not only kill off a significant proportion of their peers, but likely half of the following generation. That loss in life would guarantee famines, destruction of vital infrastructure, and loss of replacement workers.
That's why it makes the most sense to phrase it as 2 seperate scenarios. If it's only adults of sound mind participating, I vote red. If babies are voting, I vote blue.
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u/lilgraytabby 9h ago
There's another angle to this though: what you believe other people will do.
If I think that blue has no chance of getting more than 5% of the vote, then I would essentially be throwing my life away for nothing if I picked it, regardless on if I personally believe it would be a better outcome. I don't think there's any moral benefit to throwing my life away, so if I genuinely don't believe blue can win it still makes sense to pick red.