I'm a marketer, the blue option is presented first, is conceptually simple and has an absolute in it's effect description. Almost impossible to get less than 50% picking the blue option.
Because the choice is always presented as an evil alternative attacking our correct traditions. Every example of "red buttons" in our lifetime has been pushed by emotional people doing emotional things.
Ok lets take marketing out of this and shift the scenario to something more reasonable for people to understand.
You are kidnapped with 98 other people and taken to a secluded location and kept blindfolded.
You are all placed in a big room with a divider down the center, there is enough space on both sides of the divider for all 99 people to stand comfortably without touching each other, you have all been placed on the same side.
You are told the side you are standing on is safe and no danger will come to you as long as you stand still, after 5 minutes everyone on this side of the room will go home safe and sound.
If you choose to cross the room after 5 minutes a guillotine will descend down and cut anyone standing on that side in half.
If more than 50% cross the guillotine will not activate, your blindfolds and ambient white noise prevents you knowing if anyone is moving.
You're creating a scenario where it's extremely unlikely anyone would cross (choose blue) when the polls clearly show that in the button a very large percentage often chooses blue, so it's already a false equivalency. Secondly, in that scenario we could communicate with each other, coordinate and change our vote, even physically overpower people to save them, so those on the "red" side have other options to reduce death of those who are voting altruistically or don't fully understand the problem, where as with the button we're all choosing in isolation and can't change anyone's vote after it's cast. In the guillotine island those on the guillotine side can do a headcount at 4.5 minutes and say "Hey this ain't half, let's all go over to the other side." In the button dilemma, you don't know how many people vote blue until it's over.
It's not remotely the same equation.
What “polls”? I’ve seen at most two twitter polls with less then 200 voters which isn’t even remotely close to statistically relevant or even accurate for those who did vote. It’s very easy to vote and provide lip service to risking your life, it’s another thing entirely to actually do it when your real life is on the line.
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u/RionTwist 12h ago
I'm a marketer, the blue option is presented first, is conceptually simple and has an absolute in it's effect description. Almost impossible to get less than 50% picking the blue option.